Analysis

TradingKey — On July 22, Eastern Time, SpaceX (SPCX) shares hit a new record low, falling 5.32% to $116.97 as of publication. Reports indicate that SpaceX AI is further increasing its investment in data center construction, with a scale comparable to the gigawatt-level capacity of the existing Memphis campus. However, the company's Q1 AI-related capital expenditure has surged to $7.7 billion, approximately three times the amount from the same period last year. Morgan Stanley analysts predict that xAI will consume a total of up to $120 billion in cash between 2026 and 2027—a figure nearly 1.6 times the $75 billion raised in SpaceX's IPO.

Tradingkey - Michael Kratsios, Director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP), called out Chinese AI company Moonshot AI on the social media platform X, accusing it of acquiring servers equipped with NVIDIA GB300 (Blackwell series) chips through Thailand to train its Kimi K3 model and building a "complex internal platform" for large-scale distillation of U.S. models. This marks the second time in just two days that the Trump administration has issued a warning regarding "intellectual property theft" by Chinese AI models. Following Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's threat of sanctions against Kimi just a day earlier, these latest allegations, which include specific chip models, represent a significant escalation in signaling.

Tradingkey - OpenAI announced on Wednesday that it has raised its compute spending forecast through 2030 to approximately $750 billion, up from the roughly $600 billion projected earlier this year. On the same day, the company announced a $20 billion investment to launch the construction of a data center project named "Project Camellia" in Savannah, Georgia. This marks OpenAI's first time building its own data center as the lead designer and constructor, signaling a shift from "tenant" to "landlord" in its computing power infrastructure strategy.

TradingKey - Western Digital surged 12.5% to $548 today as memory stocks rebounded and Kioxia merger talks resumed. HDD production is sold out through 2026. Cantor Fitzgerald targets $900, Citi $800. Earnings August 5. Here is the setup.

TradingKey - Shares of Nvidia competitor Cerebras Systems (CBRS) rose for a third consecutive day, returning to a one-month high. At the time of writing, the stock gained 3.89% to $216.69. Cerebras announced today a strategic partnership with cybersecurity giant CrowdStrike (CRWD). As Cerebras offers the world's fastest AI inference compute solution and CrowdStrike provides an industry-leading AI-native security platform, the two companies will join forces to provide enterprise customers deploying large-scale AI with a combination of extreme inference speeds and AI-native security capabilities.

TradingKey - Micron bounced from $848 to $969 after Morgan Stanley called the selloff a buying opportunity and BofA said open-source AI actually helps memory demand. 16 non-cancelable contracts worth $22B. At $938, here is where resistance sits.

TradingKey - Against the backdrop of the ongoing global boom in AI data center construction and the acceleration of investment in power infrastructure, GE Vernova (GEV) delivered quarterly results featuring strong revenue and record-high orders. However, as profitability failed to meet market expectations, the company's share price dropped more than 10% in pre-market trading, following a previous rise of nearly 7%.

TradingKey - On July 22, Eastern Time, The Wall Street Journal reported that AMD and AI company Anthropic have signed a multi-billion dollar AI server partnership agreement. According to the terms of the agreement, Anthropic will procure up to 2 gigawatts (GW) of AMD’s next-generation AI chip, the Instinct MI450, for its data centers starting in the first half of 2027, and may lease a portion of the computing power through other major cloud service providers or new cloud vendors.

TradingKey - Dell reported record Q1 FY2027 revenue of $43.8 billion, booked $24.4 billion in AI server orders and raised its annual outlook. DELL’s breakout now puts $439 in focus.

TradingKey - On July 22, Eastern Time, the three major US stock index futures collectively declined during pre-market trading. As of press time, Nasdaq 100 Index futures fell 0.76%, S&P 500 Index futures dropped 0.29%, and Dow Jones Index futures were down 0.13%.

TradingKey - Rocket Lab is down 55% from its $151 peak but just won a $266M Air Force contract and was named in a $17B Space Force ceiling. An $8B Iridium acquisition is pending. At $82, here is the setup ahead of August 6 earnings.

TradingKey - As tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate, the international crude oil market has once again come under intense pressure. Driven by rising geopolitical risks, global oil prices surged on the 22nd, with WTI crude futures (UKOIL-F) rising as much as 4.28% to $88.17 per barrel; Brent crude futures (USOIL-F) broke through $95 per barrel, returning to this level for the first time since June 11.

TradingKey - On July 22, Eastern Time, Super Micro Computer (SMCI) shares rose over 17% in pre-market trading. The company’s preliminary fourth-quarter fiscal results showed that gross margin rebounded significantly from the previous quarter, with new orders exceeding $60 billion. This financial report indicates that demand for AI servers continues to trend upward.

TradingKey - On July 21 (ET), according to the Financial Times, Samsung Electronics is in talks with French AI company Mistral AI regarding a new round of financing, with plans to invest approximately €1 billion (equivalent to about $1.09 billion). This funding round could push Mistral AI's valuation to €20 billion (approximately $21.8 billion).

Micron Technology’s stock price has surged and is nearing the $1,000 mark, with investors watching whether it can break through this key psychological level this week.

TradingKey — On July 21 local time, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman publicly disclosed that the company encountered a major security incident during its latest round of model safety evaluations and confirmed a joint investigation into the matter with Hugging Face, the world's largest AI open-source community.

TradingKey - Recently, SpaceX (SPCX) CEO Elon Musk publicly warned investors shorting the company, stating that institutions holding large long-term short positions in SpaceX have an "extremely low probability of survival." Musk also noted that if SpaceX achieves its established development goals, there is still significant room for growth in the company's long-term value.

Japanese and South Korean stock markets retreated after an initial rally, with the KOSPI closing slightly higher while the Nikkei 225 turned lower. Kioxia, SK Hynix, and Samsung all significantly pared back their earlier gains.

TradingKey - On July 21 (ET), Tesla shares rose nearly 4% intraday before the gain narrowed to approximately 2.53% at the close, ending at $378.93. On the news front, Tesla revealed more technical details about its autonomous taxi, Cybercab: this purpose-built steer-by-wire vehicle has no steering wheel or pedals and will integrate SpaceX Starlink for navigation, customer service, and fleet management.

TradingKey - As of July 21 ET, SMCI (SMCI) surged 7% during the day, reaching an intraday high of $25.54, with after-hours shares skyrocketing by 20.58%. The primary driver for this surge was the company's latest Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings guidance; while revenue is projected to be near the low end of previous guidance, gross margins are significantly higher than expected. Additionally, new orders have exceeded $60 billion, signaling that demand for AI servers remains robust.