Analysis

TradingKey - On October 15, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Producer Price Index (PPI) for September. U.S. PPI surged 1.3% month-on-month in September, significantly exceeding market expectations of around 0.6% and marking the largest single-month increase since March 2022. Year-on-year, it rose 6.3%, also notably higher than the August level, indicating a further escalation of price pressures on businesses.

TradingKey - On October 15, Eastern Time, the US is set to release the September Producer Price Index (PPI). With the September CPI released this Wednesday coming in significantly above market expectations, the PPI will further confirm whether upstream price pressures are heating up, directly influencing market expectations for the Federal Reserve's October and December rate decisions.

TradingKey - On October 14, Eastern Time, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the latest inflation data. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.7% year-over-year in September, exceeding market expectations of 3.6% and accelerating noticeably from 3.4% in August. Month-over-month, the CPI increased by 0.6%, also higher than the 0.4% recorded in August. A sharp surge in energy prices served as the primary driver behind this month's rebound in inflation.

TradingKey - The U.S. will release its September CPI on Wednesday (October 14) Eastern Time, which will be one of the most crucial inflation datasets ahead of the Federal Reserve's October 27–28 policy meeting. The market currently expects that, driven by rising energy prices, U.S. headline inflation may continue to pick up, while core inflation growth could slow.

TradingKey - Following the announcement of the Federal Reserve's September interest rate decision, US stocks fell in response. So why do Fed rate hikes lead to a decline in US equities?

TradingKey - On Friday, October 2 (Eastern Time), the US will release its September nonfarm payrolls report. The market will focus on whether job growth can sustain August's rebound and whether the data will alter expectations for subsequent Federal Reserve rate hikes.

TradingKey - On Wednesday, September 30 (ET), the U.S. will release the August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, one of the Federal Reserve's most closely watched inflation metrics. The market generally expects that the August PCE report will continue to show sticky U.S. inflation pressures, with core PCE in particular likely remaining at elevated levels. Amid recent cautious remarks from Fed officials and rising oil prices adding to market concerns over a potential resurgence in inflation, this PCE release will serve as a crucial basis for gauging the Fed's future policy path.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated that US inflation remains elevated, with price pressures no longer confined to oil prices driven up by the war in Iran, but spreading to multiple sectors of the economy.

TradingKey - The Federal Reserve resumed rate hikes after three years, but what truly caught the market off guard was not the 25-basis-point adjustment, but rather the hawkish stance conveyed by Chair Kevin Warsh and the dot plot's repricing of the duration of high interest rates.

On September 16, Eastern Time, the Federal Reserve stated in its latest rate decision statement that it decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, marking its first rate hike since July 2023. The decision was passed unanimously with a 12–0 vote, while keeping the monetary policy framework of ample reserves in the banking system unchanged.

TradingKey - The Federal Reserve will announce its September rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday (September 16), followed by a press conference held by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at 2:30 p.m. The meeting will also release the latest economic projections and the interest rate dot plot.

TradingKey - The US will release its August retail sales data on Wednesday (September 16) Eastern Time. Following a noticeable slowdown in consumer spending in July, markets expect retail sales to resume growth in August. With the Federal Reserve scheduled to announce its September interest rate decision just hours after the data release, this retail sales report will not only reflect the resilience of US third-quarter consumption, but may also influence market expectations regarding the Fed's future interest rate path.

TradingKey - Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on September 11 showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year in August, both in line with market expectations.

TradingKey - On September 10, Eastern Time, data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose 0.4% month-over-month in August, in line with market expectations; it increased 5.4% year-over-year, higher than the market expectation of 5.3%. The July PPI growth was revised from 0.0% to 0.1% month-over-month, and from 4.7% to 4.8% year-over-year.

TradingKey - On Friday, September 11 (ET), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the August Consumer Price Index (CPI), the last major inflation report before the Federal Reserve's September 15–16 policy meeting. Against the backdrop of August nonfarm payrolls coming in significantly stronger than expected, international oil prices surging above $100, and U.S. Treasury yields remaining elevated, this CPI report could directly influence market expectations regarding whether the Fed will raise interest rates in September.

TradingKey - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the August Producer Price Index (PPI) on September 10 at 8:30 a.m. ET. Against the backdrop of significantly stronger-than-expected August nonfarm payrolls, a rising probability of a September Fed rate hike, and international oil prices returning to $100, this release will serve as a crucial indicator for gauging U.S. inflationary pressures this week and offer further insights ahead of the August CPI data due a day later.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated that while US inflation remains significantly above the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) 2% target, recent data has shown signs of cooling. If data released over the next two weeks continues to improve, he would lean toward supporting keeping the federal funds rate unchanged; however, if August inflation rebounds, he may support a rate hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting.

TradingKey - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the August nonfarm payrolls report at 8:30 AM Eastern Time on September 4. Following hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Warsh at Jackson Hole and rising international oil prices reigniting inflation concerns, this employment report will be one of the most critical macroeconomic data points ahead of the September FOMC meeting.

TradingKey - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the August nonfarm payrolls report on September 4, Eastern Time. As the final complete set of employment data before the Federal Reserve's September policy meeting, this report will help policymakers assess whether the labor market can withstand further rate hikes and whether labor costs are becoming a new source of inflation.

TradingKey - Elon Musk has once again issued highly aggressive predictions for AI and robotics. He projects that AI could expand the global economy by 20% to 30%, equivalent to an additional $20 trillion to $30 trillion in annual economic output. He also believes the global population of humanoid robots could reach 1 billion over the next decade, with a single robot's output capacity potentially reaching five times that of a human.