Analysis

TradingKey - U.S. Department of Commerce According to data released on Thursday local time, the U.S. goods and services trade deficit in October significantly narrowed to $29.4 billion, marking the lowest monthly level since June 2009.

TradingKey - The U.S. Supreme Court is set to rule this Friday on a tariff mandate issued by the Trump administration last April, a measure that briefly rattled market sentiment upon its announcement. Now, the judicial verdict regarding its legality will become a key variable influencing the next ph

Can the tides of the past internet era offer practical insights into the current debates surrounding the AI industry bubble? Why does every wave of technological revolution give rise to large-scale asset bubbles? What role has the Federal Reserve’s policy regulation played in the formation and evolu

TradingKey - In 2025, major global central banks will largely maintain an accommodative stance, but the policy pace will decelerate notably. As the easing cycle draws to a close, how will global monetary policy evolve?

TradingKey - According to the latest preliminary data released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the annualized year-over-year growth rate of U.S. real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reached 4.3% in the third quarter of 2025, significantly exceeding market expectations of 3.3% and the pre

TradingKey - It should be emphasised that tariff policy is the core driver sustaining the current high level of inflation,...Under the combined influence of tariffs and inflation, the U.S. stock market will probably follow a down-then-up trend in 2026.

As global monetary policy divergence enters a critical phase, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is anticipated to raise its benchmark interest rate at the monetary policy meeting on December 19, 2025, by 25 basis points to 0.75% , marking its highest level in nearly 30 years.

TradingKey - The US labor market presented a mixed picture in November 2025. On the one hand, non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000, slightly exceeding market expectations of 50,000 and ending the significant negative growth of the previous month.

TradingKey - As the selection for the next Federal Reserve Chairman enters a critical stage, Kevin Hassett, once widely considered a shoo-in leading candidate, has seen his advantage narrow significantly.

TradingKey - The U.S. economy will likely maintain a divergent pattern of weak employment but robust growth in 2026...Therefore, the Fed is highly likely to scale up the magnitude of rate reductions in 2026.

TradingKey – The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points on December 10, US Eastern Time, as widely anticipated, with the resolution passing by a 9-3 vote.

TradingKey - The Federal Reserve is likely to halt its rate-cutting cycle before the end of Q2 2026...The magnitude of rate cuts in Q3 and Q4 2026 is expected to far exceed current market expectations...U.S. equities are highly likely to follow a "bearish-then-bullish" trajectory throughout 2026.

TradingKey - Global monetary policy is poised for a rare "reverse script" by the end of 2025. While the Federal Reserve nears its third interest rate cut for the year and is widely expected to continue easing into next, major economies in Europe, Australia, and Japan are concurrently signaling inter

TradingKey - Japan, an economy with government debt surpassing 250% of GDP, stands at the precipice where policy contradictions threaten market collapse.

TradingKey - Kevin Hassett, White House National Economic Council Director, is poised to succeed Jerome Powell as the next Federal Reserve Chair. This development signals a potentially more dovish monetary policy. Beyond Wall Street's focus on this outlook, the Fed's independence is also under

Why would Hassett be the best choice for US stocks and the US dollar if he were to become the Federal Reserve Chairman?

TradingKey - If Kevin Hassett — the front-runner with a nomination probability exceeding 70% — is successfully appointed..., U.S. stocks are expected to continue hitting record highs, supported by a significantly accommodative monetary policy environment of interest rate cuts.

TradingKey - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly has voiced support for a rate cut at next month's Federal Reserve meeting, arguing that a sudden job market deterioration poses a greater and harder-to-manage risk than an inflation surge.

TradingKey - Currently, the market widely anticipates that the core PCE year-on-year growth rate for September will stand at 2.9%, and we expect the upcoming data to be slightly below this consensus forecast.

TradingKey - The delayed September Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and the ambiguous October NFP have already deepened divisions within the Fed amid a persistent data fog. Making the situation more acute, the December NFP report—released unexpectedly late, after the final Federal Open Market Committee