Analysis

TradingKey - Since April, as the conflict in the Middle East has continued to escalate, the oil market has undergone a dramatic transformation: WTI crude has been repriced, not only matching the performance of the global benchmark Brent crude but also surpassing it during several trading sessions. O

Gold prices declined on Monday as renewed fears of a wider Middle East conflict spurred by failed U.S.-Iran talks boosted oil prices, fueled inflation concerns and reduced expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.

TradingKey - On Sunday (April 13), Donald Trump announced that following the breakdown of U.S.-Iran negotiations, the U.S. Navy will implement a naval blockade on Iranian ports starting Monday.

Iran expects to restore most damaged refining and distribution facilities to 70–80% of their pre-attack capacity within one to two months, a senior oil official said, as authorities work to recover from a wave of strikes on energy infrastructure.

Gold at $4,748 and silver at $75.90 are not broken bull markets they are bull markets catching their breath. The ceasefire-driven profit-taking is noise against a backdrop of central bank accumulation, record ETF inflows, six consecutive silver deficits, and a dollar under structural pressure from r

TradingKey - JPMorgan’s (JPM) latest assessment indicates that if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz does not fully recover until July, international oil prices are expected to surge again, nearing the peak of nearly $120 per barrel reached during the current round of U.S.-Iran conflict.

TradingKey - On April 8, spot gold surged toward $4,800 per ounce, hitting a high of $4,857. However, on April 9, it retreated to $4,698, wiping out all gains within just 48 hours. The root cause of this "rollercoaster" price action lies not in gold itself, but in oil.

TradingKey – During Friday's Asian trading session, WTI crude oil prices continued to climb, with intraday gains extending to 2% as prices once again touched the key $100 per barrel psychological threshold. This move represents a renewed challenge to the $100 mark following a recent period of high-level volatility, signaling that the market's repricing of supply-demand dynamics and geopolitical risks is accelerating.

Oil prices rebounded following sudden complications in U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks, with WTI breaking above the $90 level.

TradingKey - On April 8 local time, the U.S. and Iran announced a temporary ceasefire agreement. However, just hours later, large-scale Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon brought the peace to the brink of collapse, prompting Iran to announce the closure of the Strait of Hormuz once again.

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Easing tensions in the Middle East triggered a plunge of over 10% in crude oil prices, while the three major U.S. stock index futures and star tech stocks rallied broadly.

TradingKey - Gold price movements today (April 8) have been clearly influenced by the repricing of US-Iran tensions. This is expected to drive a strong bullish trend in the short term, with prices potentially reaching $5,000.

TradingKey - On April 7, Trump announced a suspension of hostilities, pausing bombing and attack operations against Iran for two weeks and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Impacted by the move, WTI crude oil prices plunged over 19% at one point, marking the largest single-day decline in nearly six ye

Ceasefire agreement drives gold and silver price rebound, but silver outperforms gold due to its industrial attributes.

TradingKey - On the evening of April 7, Eastern Time, Trump announced his agreement to a two-week ceasefire, leading to a recovery in precious metals. Spot gold (XAUUSD) broke above $4,800, while spot silver rose nearly 5%. Simultaneously, international oil prices plummeted, with Brent crude futures seeing a maximum decline of nearly 18% and WTI crude futures falling over 19%.

TradingKey - The core driver of this round of oil price declines is not a sudden weakening of supply and demand data, but rather a swift correction of the market's worst-case expectations for the Middle East situation.

TradingKey - On April 6, Donald Trump addressed the Iran issue, stating he could "control the entire country overnight" and indicated this could occur as early as tomorrow night (April 7). He set a deadline of 20:00 ET on April 7 for ceasefire negotiations. He stated that if no agreement is reached

TradingKey - Amid high sensitivity in the global crude oil market, OPEC+ has moved to increase production again, though the scale remains cautious.

TradingKey - As of April 3, Eastern Time, the Strait of Hormuz has effectively remained closed for five weeks. This situation continues to exert a sustained impact on global commodity markets.