Analysis

On August 28 Eastern Time, spot gold (XAUUSD) plummeted by about 3%, breaking below the $4,500 mark to hit its lowest level since August 20. The main catalyst was a hawkish policy signal delivered by Federal Reserve Chair Warsh at the Jackson Hole annual symposium. Warsh explicitly stated that recent inflation data is not yet sufficient to prove that price pressures have substantially eased, while reaffirming that the 2% inflation target remains "unwavering and non-negotiable."

TradingKey - On August 28, Eastern Time, international silver prices extended their recent strong rally, with spot silver (XAGUSD) briefly breaching the key $70 mark intraday, after repeatedly approaching this level over the previous several trading sessions. Silver has gained more than 20% cumulatively since August, becoming one of the best-performing commodities recently.

TradingKey - As of the Asian session on August 28, gold prices (XAUUSD) were trading near $4,580 with a downward tilt. Gold had previously approached $4,700, but with U.S. inflation remaining elevated and several Federal Reserve officials delivering hawkish signals at the Jackson Hole symposium, market participants reduced long gold positions ahead of a speech by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, causing gold prices to pull back from their highs.

TradingKey - As of the European session on August 27, gold prices (XAUUSD) maintained a range-bound consolidation intraday, trading near $4,600. On Wednesday, gold came under pressure following the release of US PCE data, briefly dipping below $4,600 intraday. Higher-than-expected inflation reinforced the possibility of further Federal Reserve rate hikes; however, gold remained range-bound today, indicating that market focus has shifted to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's key speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium this Friday.

TradingKey - As of the Asian trading session on August 26, COMEX September copper futures rose 1.8% to $6.727 per pound, equivalent to approximately $14,830 per tonne, surpassing the previous high of $6.7140 per pound set on August 12 to hit a new contract record high.

TradingKey - As of the Asian trading session on August 26, WTI crude oil (USOIL) prices extended yesterday's decline, dropping to an intraday low of $80.26 and briefly approaching the $80 mark, down nearly 1% on the day. Earlier on Tuesday, WTI oil prices tumbled 4.58% to settle at $81.10, marking the lowest closing level since August 13. The recent sharp retreat from above $85 is primarily driven by renewed market bets on a diplomatic easing of U.S.-Iran tensions, which has heightened expectations for the resumption of greater crude oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

On August 25 (ET), international oil prices fell sharply, with both WTI and Brent crude dropping by more than 3%. Rich Privorotsky, head of Goldman Sachs' hedge fund business, noted in his latest client report that the importance of oil prices this week could very well surpass that of the Jackson Hole symposium. One of the market's current focal points is the U.S. Treasury's latest moves regarding sanctions on Iran.

TradingKey - As of the Asian session on August 25, silver (XAGUSD) was consolidating below $70. The metal reached an intraday high of $69.94, briefly approaching the $70 psychological mark, before coming under pressure and retreating to trade near $68.20. Silver rose 6.56% last week and has gained over 18% in the past month, highlighting a significant strengthening of bullish momentum for silver amid a broader recovery in the precious metals market.

TradingKey - As of the European session on August 24, gold (XAUUSD) extended its strong momentum from last week today, holding firmly above $4,600 intraday and peaking at $4,659.92, marking a new high in nearly three months. Gold prices accumulated a gain of over 5% last week, and bulls continued to hold the upper hand after the market opened this week. The primary drivers behind the recent sustained rally in gold prices are the persistent weakness in the US dollar and safe-haven demand triggered by US fiscal and debt concerns.

Brent crude futures touched $93 per barrel, rising 1.41% on the day to hit a new high since July 24. Since August 5, Brent oil prices have gained over 20%. Currently, as renewed geopolitical tensions combine with accelerating global inventory drawdowns, market divergence over the trajectory of crude

Spot gold (XAUUSD) breached the $4,600 mark on August 21, Eastern Time, and is advancing toward $4,700, marking the first time gold has returned to this price level since May 15. The immediate catalyst driving the rally was the U.S. Department of the Treasury's unexpected expansion of its long-term Treasury buyback program. Although this does not constitute Federal Reserve quantitative easing nor will it reduce U.S. government debt, the policy signal reinforced market focus on fiscal pressures and long-end borrowing costs. As a result, gold has reaped a "dual-path benefit."

TradingKey - As of the Asian session on August 20, gold prices (XAUUSD) rallied again today after breaking above $4,500 on Wednesday, reaching a nearly two-month high of $4,527.12. Although prices pulled back intraday and are currently hovering around $4,490, technical analysis indicates a significant improvement in the short-term bullish structure, suggesting that gold prices still have upside potential in the near term.

TradingKey - Most people read the futures curve the way they'd read a stock chart — and that's exactly the mental trap that trips them up.

TradingKey - As of the Asian session on August 19, gold (XAUUSD) maintained a modest intraday rebound, rising about 0.2% on the day to trade near $4,340. Gold had dropped nearly 2% on Tuesday, primarily suppressed by a global bond market sell-off and a sharp surge in U.S. Treasury yields. Today, as U.S. Treasury yields pulled back from their highs, gold regained buying interest, though the overall market remained cautious ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes.

TradingKey - As of the European session on August 17, gold prices (XAUUSD) were trading above $4,400, up approximately 0.7% on the day and reaching an intraday high of $4,416.43, extending the gains from last Friday. Recent weak U.S. economic data has led the market to further dampen bets on a Fed rate hike in September, thereby providing ongoing support for gold prices.

TradingKey - In early Asian trading on Monday (August 17), spot gold (XAUUSD) strengthened, currently trading near $4,406 per ounce. In the previous week, gold prices gained about 0.8% overall, though intraday volatility heightened significantly. The market is currently weighing the impact of weakening U.S. economic data on Federal Reserve policy expectations on one hand, while also assessing the risk that Middle East tensions and rising energy prices could push inflation back up on the other.

TradingKey - As of the European session on August 14, international spot copper prices (COPPER) hovered near historic highs, trading around $14,070, down a modest 0.3% on the day. Despite short-term profit-taking, global copper prices have maintained overall strength year-to-date, once again reclaiming the $14,000 mark.

TradingKey - As of the Asian session on August 13, gold prices (XAUUSD) pulled back intraday after yesterday's CPI pushed them up near $4,450, with the latest price trading around $4,380. This indicates that the market remains cautious ahead of the PPI data release, as profit-taking by some investors has driven the pullback in gold prices.

TradingKey - During Wednesday's Asian trading session, spot gold (XAUUSD) extended its rebound, reclaiming $4,400 per ounce.

TradingKey - On August 11, international crude oil prices surged before retreating. Driven by uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations and supply risks in the Strait of Hormuz, WTI crude (USOIL) briefly rose above $84 during intraday trading, while Brent crude (UKOIL) reached a high of $90. However, as Pakistan signaled that the US and Iran were "close to reaching some kind of arrangement," the market renewed bets on an easing of tensions, and oil prices subsequently pulled back significantly from their intraday highs.