USD/NOK

Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke notes that Norges Bank kept its policy rate at 4.50% and maintained a ‘high for longer’ stance, leaving the door open to another hike, potentially in December.

Nomura strategists note that Norges Bank kept its policy rate at 4.50% in November and signalled a willingness to hike again if needed. They expect no further rate changes in 2026–2027 and see the next move as a cut, likely only from 2028, given very gradual disinflation in Norway.

Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke highlights that Norges Bank, having front‑loaded a hike in September due to persistent inflation, is expected to keep rates unchanged today while maintaining a "high for longer" stance. Markets are unsure about a December move; any stronger tightening signal could lift the Krone, though Oil and gas prices remain its primary drivers.

Danske Bank analysts note that Norway's unemployment rate remained at 2.0% in October, reinforcing expectations for unchanged interest rates at Norges Bank's November meeting.

Nordea’s Kjetil Olsen expects Norges Bank to keep its key policy rate at 4.5% next Thursday, in line with the September rate path. He notes mixed data: slightly higher core inflation and energy prices versus a stronger NOK and softer retail sales. Olsen argues communication will stay broadly unchanged and that rate cuts are unlikely before inflation clearly converges to the 2% target, which he does not foresee before 2028.

Nordea strategists expect a stronger Norwegian Krone (NOK) against the Euro (EUR) over the coming quarters.