NZD/USD

Traders give the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) about a 58% chance of raising its Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 3% on October 28, down from about 80% in late September, and NZD/USD has fallen with those odds.

• New Zealand dollar advanced due to rising domestic business sentiment and RBNZ expectations. • Oversold momentum indicators triggered short-covering amid a temporary moderation in US dollar buying. • Technical indicators show mixed signals with the RSI neutral and MACD indicating sells.

The NZD/USD pair loses momentum to around 0.5590 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) weakens near the lowest since November 2025 against the US Dollar (USD), pressured by elevated US Treasury yields and uncertainty ahead of the November general election.

The NZD/USD pair seesaws between tepid gains and minor losses during the Asian session on Tuesday, trading around the 0.5600 mark, just above its lowest level since November 2025, touched the previous day.

New Zealand's firms are more upbeat and raising fewer prices, and the second half of that matters more for the Kiwi. NZD/USD trades just above 0.5600 after a fresh low beneath it, back near its November 2025 low.

NZD/USD extends its decline on Monday and trades around 0.5582 at the time of writing, down 0.70% on the day. The pair is flirting with the November 2025 low at 0.5580 after posting six consecutive weeks of losses. NZD/USD is therefore trading close to an important area between 0.5580 and 0.5470.