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Gold Price Forecast: Cooling Inflation Fails to Offset Fed Hawkish Pressure, Gold Price May Fall to $3,500
TradingKey - As of the Asian session on July 17, gold prices (XAUUSD) fluctuated around $4,000. However, it is noteworthy that yesterday’s closing price was $3,969.41, confirming a break below the $4,000 mark, which suggests that short-term market sentiment may lean toward the bearish side. Meanwhile, although the latest U.S. CPI and PPI data both indicated easing inflationary pressures, gold prices failed to sustain their rebound. Instead, prices came under pressure due to the recovery in U.S. Treasury yields, hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials, and the continued resilience of U.S. consumption.
Spot Gold Falls Below $4,000: US-Iran Conflict Intensifies, Surging US Treasury Yields Crush Gold Prices
Tradingkey - On July 16, spot gold prices declined as US Treasury yields climbed and oil prices resumed their rally amid escalating tensions between the US and Iran. Following a US strike against Iran in retaliation for attacks on merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz, the armed conflict has intensified. Iran responded forcefully, warning that it would close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if the US attacks its power infrastructure. In an interview on Tuesday night, Trump reportedly stated that the US military would launch strikes on Iran's critical infrastructure next week if no diplomatic breakthrough is achieved.
Gold Price Trend Forecast: Why Did Gold Prices Fall After US CPI Cooled? Fed Chair Speech and Iran Situation Become Obstacles
TradingKey - As of the Asian trading session on July 15, gold (XAUUSD) prices retraced to oscillate near $4,030, erasing nearly all the gains driven by yesterday’s favorable CPI data. From a technical perspective, gold was bolstered yesterday by the cooling U.S. June CPI, rebounding quickly to test the $4,100 level. However, bulls failed to sustain the momentum today, reflecting intense competition between long and short positions at current levels.
June CPI Cooling May Be a Smokescreen? Brent May Rise to $125, Middle East Conflict Risks Igniting Next Month’s Inflation Report
Tradingkey - U.S. June CPI inflation slowed more than market expectations, but Fed Chair Wash delivered hawkish remarks, emphasizing that the current primary task is to restore price stability and ensure the high inflation of the past five years becomes a thing of the past. On July 14, Eastern Time, inflation data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the unadjusted June CPI increased by 3.5% year-on-year, significantly lower than the market expectation of 3.8%; the CPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, also exceeding the expected 0.1% decline. In terms of core inflation, the core CPI monthly rate recorded 0%, the smallest increase since January 2021, compared to market expectations of 0.2%. Overall, while the slowdown in June CPI exceeded expectations due to falling energy prices, significant inflationary pressures remain, as the current 3.5% year-on-year increase is still a considerable distance from the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target.
Gold Price Trend Forecast: June CPI Plus Fed Chair Congressional Testimony, Can Gold Price Hold Above $4,000?
TradingKey - As of the Asian session on July 14, gold (XAUUSD) prices fluctuated and consolidated around the $4,000 level, briefly dipping below $4,000 to a low of $3,983.23. From a market perspective, gold prices plummeted 2.87% yesterday due to the escalation of the Strait of Hormuz crisis, falling to $3,986.64 intraday. However, the closing price remained steady above $4,000 at $4,001.01, indicating that the $4,000 mark has become a key battleground for bulls and bears. Investors should focus on the U.S. June CPI data today.
Trump Says US ‘Takes Over’ Strait of Hormuz, WTI and Brent Crude Prices Both Top $80
TradingKey - On July 13 ET, U.S. President Trump stated that the United States will ensure the Strait of Hormuz remains open and may directly manage this critical global energy transit route. Trump declared that the U.S. will serve as the "guardian" of the strait, while announcing the reinstatement of a naval blockade against Iran and plans to levy a fee on vessels passing through the strait equivalent to 20% of the cargo value to offset the costs incurred by the U.S. in providing security.
