USD/CAD

Canada lost 68.3K jobs in September against a forecast for a 7K gain, and with August's 41.7K loss it has given back all of its net job gains for 2026.

Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) economist Claire Fan notes Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September, mainly in public sectors, reversing much of summer gains and leaving year-to-date employment at -41,000. She highlights volatility in monthly data and stresses the unemployment rate remains below last year. Fan expects earlier labour market progress to hold and the unemployment rate to edge lower through 2026.

USD/CAD climbs on Friday as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) weakens sharply following a disappointing domestic employment report. A firm US Dollar (USD) provides additional support to the pair. At the time of writing, USD/CAD trades around 1.4276, at levels last seen in April 2025.

• Widening US-Canada monetary policy expectations and interest rate differentials advance USD/CAD. • Canadian domestic macroeconomic softness and trade vulnerabilities limit Bank of Canada rate hikes. • Technical indicators show a MACD value of 0.001 and Williams %R buy signal.

Brown Brothers Harriman highlights that USD/CAD is consolidating just above 1.4200 after touching fresh cyclical highs near 1.4300. Canada’s September labor force survey is the key release, with modest job gains and a higher unemployment rate expected.

Rabobank strategists Molly Schwartz and Christian Lawrence note that the recent USD/CAD rally reflects broad US Dollar (USD) strength rather than specific Canadian Dollar (CAD) weakness, with the pair consolidating near 1.425 after failing to break 1.43.