Analysis

AAPL Q3 missed China estimates ($18.8B vs. $19.5B), services softened. New CEO Ternus takes over Sept 1, iPhone 18 Pro launches Sept 9. Can the new flagship reverse momentum before Jackson Hole, or will macro uncertainty cap the stock?

CBRS Q2: Cloud revenue +287% to $127.7M, core revenue beat $209.9M, but GAAP missed $194M target. Stock crashed 17%. Next week's Jackson Hole speech will test if Fed policy rescues AI infrastructure confidence.

TradingKey - On July 21, Eastern Time, boosted by rumors that Western Digital has restarted merger talks with Kioxia, Western Digital (WDC) shares surged 12.51% for the day. The two companies had previously initiated merger talks, with contacts in 2021 ending without result and in-depth negotiations in October 2023 collapsing due to opposition from SK Hynix (SKHY).

TradingKey - As of August 13 Eastern Time, Nvidia (NVDA) was priced at $225.30. In early August, NVDA rapidly rebounded from below $200 to above $224, extending its upward momentum this week. Technical indicators suggest that the stock maintains an overall uptrend, with the potential to reach a new record high. From a fundamental perspective, the most critical factor driving the stock price recently is Nvidia's partnership with six Wall Street financial giants.

SpaceX (SPCX) shares approached the $150 mark during intraday trading on August 12, Eastern Time. Just recently, the stock had dipped to a period low of $104.83 in early August; as of the close on August 12, it has rebounded by approximately 35%.

The S&P 500 Index pulled back slightly after hitting a record high yesterday, with all three major stock indexes edging lower. Memory stocks bucked the trend to gain, while select optical communication stocks moved higher. At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.20% to 53,732.41; the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 0.28% to 26,729.16; and the S&P 500 Index dipped 0.17% to 7,785.76.

TradingKey - Micron Technology (MU) is one of the strongest-performing semiconductor stocks in the current AI investment boom. However, compared with its rapidly growing revenue and profits, Micron's forward P/E ratio is only in the single digits.

Financing risks behind Broadcom's AI expansion are drawing market concern. On August 14, Eastern Time, Broadcom's (AVGO) stock price fell below the $400 mark. Bank of America analyst Tom Curcuruto reportedly downgraded Broadcom's issuer and bond ratings, with the primary concern stemming from the AI XPV financing platform it co-established with Apollo and Blackstone.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said he is encouraged by the recent cooling in inflation, but noted that similar improvements must continue over the coming months to confirm that inflation is moving back toward the Federal Reserve's 2% target.

As US inflation, employment, and consumption data continue to cool, market expectations for a Fed rate hike in September are rapidly receding. Currently, the probability of a September rate hike has dropped to around 30%. Jeremy Siegel, senior economist at WisdomTree and finance professor at the Wharton School, stated that as long as oil prices remain stable near $80 per barrel, the Fed will most likely not raise rates in September. Meanwhile, US stocks have begun pricing in "soft landing" expectations. The S&P 500 Index surpassed 7,800 points for the first time, with cooling inflation, corporate earnings growth, and AI-driven efficiency gains jointly driving a rebound in risk appetite.

SPCX at $141.20 rallying from $105.75 but facing $146.86-$154.36 major resistance zone. 92% Q2 growth, Starlink 12M, AI $2.56B. August 20 lockup expiration risk.

US stock 13F filings have been released recently, disclosing the second-quarter holdings of Wall Street investment banks such as Morgan Stanley and UBS. Notably, the reports show that Micron (MU) was among the top five increased positions for both banks.

NVDA at $225.34 breaking above $221 with $229.51 target. Q1 revenue $81.6B (+85%), Data Center +92%. Rubin production ramping, SpaceX exclusive NVIDIA builder.

SanDisk's share price continued its surge today, rising nearly 7% to break through the $1,600 mark. While it may face short-term selling pressure from profit-taking and investors unwinding trapped positions, Wall Street remains broadly optimistic about the stock hitting new record highs.

AMAT at $547.25 rejected at $554.94 heading into Q3 earnings (Aug 13 US close). Guides 30%+ equipment growth, 50%+ packaging. Critical breakout at $555.

TradingKey - The latest U.S. retail sales data for July came in significantly weaker than market expectations. U.S. retail sales fell 0.6% month-on-month in July, compared to a 0.2% increase in June, whereas the market had previously expected modest growth to continue. The data indicates that after robust consumer spending in the second quarter, U.S. consumers turned noticeably more cautious at the start of the third quarter.

Memory chip stocks rallied collectively, while cryptocurrencies fell broadly, facing further downside pressure.

TradingKey - On Friday, August 14, Eastern Time, U.S. stock index futures were mixed in pre-market trading as the market shifted into a wait-and-see stance after the S&P 500 set another record closing high. U.S. PPI unexpectedly came in flat for July, further easing rate hike concerns; however, investors remain focused on today's release of July retail sales and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index to gauge whether U.S. consumer resilience is sufficient to support elevated stock valuations.

CSCO beat Q4 earnings with $17.25B revenue (+18%), $9.3B AI orders, but stock plunged 9% to $112.81 on gross margin decline to 66.3% from 68.4%.

SpaceX's stock price pulled back after an initial surge and may test $135 or even lower in the short term.