SpaceX Stock Price Forecast: AI Business to Become Core of Revenue Growth, Stock Expected to Rise to $172

At a recent SpaceX all-hands meeting, Elon Musk placed AI at the highest strategic priority for the company, expecting it to rapidly become a core pillar of revenue and valuation. He stated that revenue from SpaceX's AI business 'is not just possible, but will definitely surpass the revenue of all other SpaceX businesses combined in September.'

However, in its second-quarter financial report, SpaceX's AI business generated $2.561 billion, accounting for only 32.77% of total revenue of $7.814 billion. During the same period, revenue for the Connectivity business was $4.291 billion, while revenue for the Space segment was $962 million.

Musk's remarks imply that the AI business will officially become the primary force supporting SpaceX's trillion-dollar valuation. The aerospace company will also shift its narrative from 'rocket launches and Starlink growth' to a more imaginative artificial intelligence company.

Musk further estimated that AI will account for 99% of SpaceX's valuation over the next five years, while traditional aerospace assets such as rockets, spacecraft, Starlink, and Starship will increasingly serve as infrastructure for AI compute deployment, satellite communications, and space inference.

To support this goal, SpaceX plans to expand its AI compute capacity from the current approximately 1.4 gigawatts to 10 gigawatts by the end of next year, while exploring an integrated ground-and-space computing architecture of 'ground training, space inference.'

Notably, on the same day, Musk's SpaceXAI officially released its next-generation large model, Grok 4.6. SpaceXAI stated that the new model represents a significant improvement over Grok 4.5, with key enhancements in long-running agents, complex programming, knowledge work, as well as interactive and visual task capabilities.

Although SpaceX has rebounded significantly from its low, Morgan Stanley believes it still has over 100% upside to its base price target of $300, and could reach $600 in a bull-case scenario, implying a potential gain of over 300% from the current share price of around $145.

The firm stated that the market is currently pricing SpaceX's AI business extremely conservatively, viewing it as an ordinary emerging cloud provider rather than an emerging end-to-end AI platform.

This is also consistent with Musk's AI revenue guarantees, suggesting that the market significantly undervalues its AI business. Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas recently stated that if the value of SpaceX's space and connectivity business (approximately $127 per share) is stripped out from the current share price, the market's implied valuation for its AI business (including consumer and enterprise AI) is only about $12 per share, corresponding to a 2028 EV/Sales multiple slightly above 1x, which is even lower than the valuation levels of peer emerging cloud service providers.

The firm believes that as progress regarding Cursor/Grok continues to be disclosed, this valuation discount is expected to narrow gradually, creating an upward-skewed catalyst path.

From SpaceX's stock price chart, the price has reclaimed the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages, with short-term momentum continuing to recover. However, the current price is close to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level ($146.69) while facing resistance near the 80-day moving average, placing the price movement in a critical testing zone for whether the rebound can upgrade into a medium-term trend recovery.

Regarding moving averages, the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages are turning visibly upward, with the 40-day moving average near $128 forming downside support; however, the 80-day moving average around $145 still poses near-term resistance. If the stock price can hold steadily above $146.69 for consecutive sessions, it implies that this rebound will transition from a low-level recovery toward stronger trend improvement.

The first short-term support level is at the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level ($138.75), which is also close to the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, serving as the primary dividing line between strength and weakness in this rebound structure. The second support below is focused on the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level ($130.81), creating resonance with the support zone formed by the 20-day and 40-day moving averages.

In terms of upside room, the price first needs to break through and hold above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level ($146.69), which could open up further upside toward the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level ($157.24) and the previous high ($172.39).

It is worth noting that after a rapid rebound, the stock price has approached the resistance zone formed by the 0.618 retracement level and the 80-day moving average, which may intensify short-term profit-taking. Only a sustained breakthrough above $146.69 and a further recovery of $157.24 can more strongly confirm an improvement in the medium-term technical structure.

This content was translated using AI and reviewed for clarity. It is for informational purposes only.