Analysis

Going into the year investors were betting that President Donald Trump's policies would spur U.S. stocks and the dollar to outperform their global peers. That assumption is increasingly getting tested.

Traders who bet on the future course of inflation foresee the sharpest divergence for three years between the U.S. and euro zone, driven by different growth paths, tariff threats and cheaper European energy after a potential Ukraine peace deal.

We anticipate that Core PCE will rise by 2.7%, positioning it between the prior month’s value and the market’s consensus estimate.

Following rare back-to-back economic contractions in 2023 and 2024, German businesses are hopeful that a new government formed by the conservative CDU/CSU party and the center-left Social Democrats can revive Europe's largest economy in 2025.

In U.S. President Donald Trump's first term in office, he regularly posted boastful tweets when Wall Street hit fresh highs, taking credit for the record stock prices that he believed would fuel wider economic growth.

The Bank of England’s recent interest rate cut and accompanying economic forecasts have prompted a flurry of conflicting views about where monetary policy is heading, raising the question of how BoE-watchers should "read" the committee’s actions in these uncertain times.

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BRUSSELS, Feb 21 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump says value-added taxes carry a lot of blame for America's near trillion dollar trade deficit with the rest of the world. The 170-plus countries who charge VAT - including top U.S. trade partners in Europe - insist they have no impact.

Policymakers around the world may not like the word 'stagflation,' but they're going to hear a lot more it this year if the import tariffs U.S. President Donald Trump is threatening open up a global trade war.

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At the Fed's January monetary policy meeting, policymakers announced that they would keep interest rates unchanged and signaled that there were upside risks to the inflation outlook, meaning they would remain on hold. This decision may put pressure on risky assets such as U.S. stocks.

In line with market expectations and our forecasts, the RBA decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, reducing the policy rate from 4.35% to 4.1%. This marks the first rate cut since the end of the tightening cycle from May 2022 to November 2023.

U.S. debt Cassandras can point to news of the country's record household debt figure last week as yet another sign that the day of reckoning for the heavily indebted nation is fast-approaching. But zoom out, and the bigger picture is rather less alarming.

Europe's leaders have long known the region is living beyond the means of its ageing, stagnant economy. The question is whether the ructions created by Donald Trump's second White House term mean they will do something about it.

On Tuesday, February 18, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will announce its interest rate decision for February. The market widely expects the RBA to cut rates by 25 basis points, lowering the policy rate to 4.1%. TradingKey Analyst Jason Tang agrees with this view.

The euro zone is showing early signs of an economic recovery that is unlikely to be derailed by the tariffs the Trump administration has threatened thus far. But that doesn’t mean European policymakers can let their guard down.

Looking ahead, although potential tariffs may introduce uncertainty to Thailand's foreign trade, fiscal spending is expected to continue supporting the economy.

While the seismic market moves caused by DeepSeek were short-lived, the release of the Chinese startup’s high-performing and inexpensive large language model is likely to have long-term implications for technology, trade, and economic relations between the U.S. and China.

The Trump administration's pledge to contain long-term U.S. Treasury yields has strengthened bond market expectations that a long-desired regulatory shift on bank leverage requirements could be finally looming.

TradingKey - The FOMC’s top concerns remain inflation and employment. The January CPI report shows inflation diverging from the Fed’s 2% target, while Thursday’s PPI also climbed steadily, reinforcing the upward trend in prices. Recent job data suggests the labor market does not appear to need furth