Analysis

TradingKey — Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller’s latest remarks sent a clear hawkish signal, stating that if core inflation remains elevated, the Fed does not rule out tightening monetary policy in the near term, directly disrupting previous market expectations of a policy pivot toward rate cuts. Waller stated that if subsequent economic data shows inflation remains significantly above the 2% policy target, the Fed may need to implement further rate hikes in the short term, noting that monetary policy is currently at a critical "crossroads." He pointed out that the policy direction will be determined by the latest economic data, such as the CPI report to be released on Tuesday. While he does not advocate for hiking rates prematurely to avoid triggering a recession, he emphasized that the labor market is currently stable and the Fed must avoid repeating its mistake from several years ago—reacting too slowly as price pressures intensified.

TradingKey - On Thursday Eastern Time, May inflation data released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) showed that the May PCE price index rose 4.1% year-on-year, in line with market expectations and higher than the previous reading of 3.8%. The U.S. May PCE month-on-month rate was 0.4%, lower than the market expectation of 0.50% and matching the previous 0.40%. The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy, rose 3.4% year-on-year, in line with market expectations and higher than the previous 3.30%. The core PCE month-on-month rate was 0.3%, meeting market expectations, though the previous value was revised from 0.20% to 0.3%. Impacted by the Middle East conflict pushing up energy prices, U.S. inflation climbed further in May, with the annual PCE rate breaching the 4% threshold for the first time in three years, marking the first occurrence since April 2023. Although the monthly growth rates were broadly in line with Wall Street expectations, the clear rebound in the year-on-year rate indicates that the fight against inflation is not yet over.

Tradingkey - On May 28, the final set of U.S. economic data for April was released, further confirming that inflation is spreading across a broader range of sectors. This has also solidified market expectations that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates this year. Recent hawkish remarks from Fed officials further indicate that the AI boom cannot be expected to resolve inflationary pressures.

Tradingkey - The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release the April PCE inflation report on May 28, Eastern Time. Since May, multiple economic indicators have confirmed that inflation remains elevated, leading the market to even begin betting that the Federal Reserve may pivot to rate hikes within the year. Consequently, U.S. Treasury yields have strengthened, with the 30-year Treasury yield surging to 5.2% on May 20, reaching its highest level since 2007. It should be noted that while the CPI is a major inflation indicator monitored by the market, the Federal Reserve pays closer attention to PCE inflation data. This has been its official inflation anchor since its formal establishment in 2012, with a long-term policy goal of stabilizing YoY PCE growth at 2%. In its actual decision-making, the Fed places particular weight on Core PCE—which excludes food and energy prices—believing it to be less volatile and a more accurate reflection of underlying inflation trends in the economy.

Tradingkey - According to a White House official, incoming Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will be formally sworn in at the White House this Friday, succeeding Jerome Powell as the 17th Chair of the Federal Reserve. President Trump will make a rare personal appearance to preside over the ceremony, breaking a decades-long tradition of internal swearing-in ceremonies at the Federal Reserve. Historical data indicates that the last Chair to be sworn in at the White House was Alan Greenspan in 1987, and the last President to personally attend such a ceremony was George W. Bush in 2006 for Ben Bernanke’s inauguration. Contrasting with 2018, when Trump did not attend Powell’s internal ceremony, this high-profile White House event—alongside Warsh’s status as the "wealthiest Fed Chair in history"—signals a strong personal endorsement from the White House for the new Fed leadership. This rare

TradingKey - On May 15, ET, the 2-year Treasury yield broke above the 4% mark, the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.53%, and the 30-year Treasury yield held steady above 5%, reaching its highest level since May 2025.

TradingKey - On Wednesday (May 13), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released PPI data. The April PPI year-on-year growth hit its highest level since December 2022, while the month-on-month growth reached a new high since March 2022.

Tradingkey - At 8:30 AM ET on May 12, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the April CPI report, a critical window for verifying the transmission of oil prices to inflation. Data indicated that U.S. inflation ran hot in April, with the year-on-year increase reaching 3.8%, the highest in near

TradingKey - On Tuesday, May 12 (ET), the U.S. Department of Labor released Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The April CPI rose 3.8% year-on-year, exceeding the 3.7% forecast and significantly higher than the previous month's 3.3%, marking the fastest annual growth since May 2023. Core CPI rose 2.8% year-on-year, surpassing both the 2.7% forecast and the previous 2.6%, highlighting an unexpected rebound in inflation.

TradingKey - March 2026 CPI numbers came in very strong, delivering a hefty inflation blow in the aftermath of the US-Iran conflict. The headline measure shot up to +3.3% year-over-year – the best since May 2024 – on an energy shock that pushed gasoline prices up 18.9% YoY. Month-over-month, headlin

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the April CPI report. Top investment banks now widely believe that the Federal Reserve's first rate cut will be delayed until 2027, with no cuts expected in 2026. JPMorgan Chase has developed three scenarios based on the CPI data—even in an optim

TradingKey - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the April CPI report on May 12 at 8:30 a.m. ET. Since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran conflict in late February, the global energy market has experienced the most severe geopolitical supply shock in history. As the conflict enters its third month, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains significantly below pre-war levels, with approximately 20% of the world's oil transit routes still facing "interruption." This inflation report will serve as a critical validation window for the transmission effects of oil prices.

TradingKey - Is your wealth really growing, or just quietly paying down America’s debt for it?

TradingKey - At 8:30 AM ET on Wednesday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which traders view as setting the tone for investment direction.

TradingKey - U.S. non-farm payrolls saw a net decrease of 92,000 in February, far missing expectations and marking the second monthly contraction since 2020. Simultaneously, the unemployment rate climbed to 4.4%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics also revised down previous figures by a total of 69,000.

TradingKey - It should be emphasised that tariff policy is the core driver sustaining the current high level of inflation,...Under the combined influence of tariffs and inflation, the U.S. stock market will probably follow a down-then-up trend in 2026.

TradingKey - Currently, the market widely anticipates that the core PCE year-on-year growth rate for September will stand at 2.9%, and we expect the upcoming data to be slightly below this consensus forecast.

TradingKey - The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release the August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Friday, September 26, with markets closely watching how much tariff pass-through effects have influenced inflation. 

Our baseline forecast anticipates sustained asset price increases. However, if inflation surpasses market expectations in the coming months, it could hinder further rate cuts and pose the greatest risk to financial markets.

TradingKey - The key question now is whether the August CPI report, to be released on September 11, could push the Fed toward a more aggressive 50-basis-point cut — as it did in September 2024.