Analysis

TradingKey - On July 2, Eastern Time, following two consecutive labor market reports that unexpectedly cooled, another Fed official stated that the current restrictive monetary policy stance will bring inflation down gradually. US non-farm payrolls for June, released today, grew by 57,000, significantly below the market expectation of 113,000, while the figures for April and May were downwardly revised by a combined 74,000. The ADP report released yesterday showed that private sector employment increased by 98,000 in June, also missing the market expectation of 118,000, marking the smallest increase since March. The two weaker-than-expected employment reports have intensified market concerns over a cooling labor market.

TradingKey - On May 8, ET, April non-farm payroll data showed that 115,000 jobs were added during the month. Although this represents a sharp decline from the 178,000 increase in March, it exceeded market expectations of 65,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.3%. Additionally, total non-farm pa

TradingKey - April 2026 NFP forecast 62K–70K vs March 178K. Unemployment expected 4.3%. Fed on hold at 3.50–3.75% with Kevin Warsh as new chair. DXY triple-bottom at $97.69. Trade setup inside.

TradingKey - Fresh ADP data released this Wednesday (May 6) showed that the U.S. private sector added 109,000 jobs in April, marking the largest increase in 15 months. This figure not only exceeded the 99,000 expected by economists in a Reuters poll but also accelerated significantly from a downward

TradingKey - According to The Wall Street Journal, the situation in the Middle East continues to deteriorate. The March non-farm payroll report, set for release at 8:30 AM ET on April 30, will be the first major data point since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict. Under the dual impact of weak emp

TradingKey - The non-farm payrolls report released Wednesday ET showed that U.S. non-farm employment for January was stronger than expected, increasing by 130,000 and marking the largest monthly gain in over a year, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%. Regarding the January jobs data, Nick Timi

TradingKey - The U.S. economy will likely maintain a divergent pattern of weak employment but robust growth in 2026...Therefore, the Fed is highly likely to scale up the magnitude of rate reductions in 2026.

TradingKey - This paper conducts an analysis of the U.S. September nonfarm payroll data and the subsequent employment market through two scenario-based assessments, alongside a short-term and medium-to-long-term outlook for U.S. stocks.

TradingKey - The longest US government shutdown on record is nearing its end, potentially providing the data-deprived Federal Reserve with the September nonfarm payrolls report as early as this week once federal operations resume. However, the October nonfarm data may be permanently lost. During the

In our view, the underlying softness in the U.S. labour market is unlikely to reverse soon, raising the odds of sustained Fed easing and leaving room for further equity upside.

TradingKey - Wall Street expects modest job growth and a rebound in the unemployment rate in August NFP report, a balanced outcome that could support a September rate cut. However, a massive downward revision — a “terrifying scene” — and anomalies on the supply side could plunge the Fed into deeper

In essence, short-term economic challenges could pave the way for medium-term investment opportunities.

TradingKey - On Thursday, July 3, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the June Nonfarm Payrolls report, moved up one day due to the Independence Day holiday. Analysts believe this report may reveal early signs of Trump’s tariff policies impacting labor markets, and could further boost

TradingKey - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the May nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, June 6, with investors closely scrutinizing the data for signs of labor market resilience or weakness. This comes after mixed signals earlier this week — JOLTS job openings unexpectedly...

TradingKey - Since the 2008 financial crisis, bringing manufacturing back to the United States has been a top priority for multiple presidential administrations — yet this ambitious goal has faced persistent challenges and yielded limited success. The phenomenon of “manufacturing hollowing-out”...

On 4 April 2025, the United States will release its March Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. The market consensus currently anticipates job growth of 128,000, a decline from February’s 151,000. We align with this prevailing forecast.

TradingKey - The Shunto—short for the Spring Wage Offensive—is Japan’s annual nationwide labour-management bargaining event held every spring. Typically, Shunto unfolds in three stages: In the first round, employers discuss potential wage increases; in the second, workers at various companies...

On 7 March 2025, the United States released the Nonfarm Payroll data for February. Nonfarm employment grew by 151,000 jobs, falling short of the market consensus expectation of 160,000.

TradingKey - When it comes to US economic data, the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) is indeed one of the most significant indicators. This employment report, covering more than 90% of the employed population in the U.S., often causes significant fluctuations in US stocks, foreign exchange, and gold on the...

On 7 March 2025, the United States will release its February Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) data. The market consensus currently anticipates a payroll increase of 160,000 jobs. However, we believe the actual figure will fall short of this expectation and also undershoot the prior month’s reading of 143,000 (