Analysis

TradingKey - On May 22, Eastern Time, Kevin Warsh officially assumed office as the 17th Chair of the Federal Reserve; he is set to preside over his first FOMC policy meeting on June 17. However, while markets widely expected the Trump-nominated chair to push for rate cuts, a hawkish camp within the Federal Reserve has already begun to align even before he formally took office.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller said on Friday that he does not expect to support a change in the policy rate in the near term, adding that the outcome will depend heavily on the length of the Iran conflict, per Reuters.

TradingKey - The Federal Reserve is scheduled to release the minutes of the April FOMC meeting on May 21. This will be the first set of minutes in 2026 not led by Powell. On May 15, Kevin Warsh officially took office as the 17th Chair of the Federal Reserve; the leadership transition between the two chairs took place precisely between the conclusion of the meeting and the publication of the minutes.

TradingKey - Data released by the Japanese government on Tuesday showed that nominal GDP for fiscal year 2025 grew by 4.2% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive year of positive growth as total nominal GDP continued to hit record highs. In the first quarter of 2026, the annualized GDP growth rate reached 2.1%, exceeding the 1.7% median forecast by analysts surveyed by Reuters and marking a significant acceleration from the 1.3% growth seen in the previous quarter. Takayuki Toji, senior economist at Japan Post Insurance, stated that the government may become more receptive to further interest rate hikes, potentially leaving room for the Bank of Japan to raise rates as early as June or July, prior to the next GDP data release.

TradingKey - On May 12, the Summary of Opinions from the Bank of Japan's April meeting, released on Monday, sent a clear tightening signal. However, the foreign exchange market delivered a contrary response; despite intensifying expectations for interest rate hikes, the yen weakened.

TradingKey - Last Friday, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee publicly questioned the Trump administration’s logic for interest rate cuts, arguing that widespread expectations for AI productivity could itself drive interest rates higher. However, if this technological revolution disappoints, it co

TradingKey - After eight years at the helm of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell’s term as Chair will officially conclude on May 15. Kevin Warsh, nominated by President Trump, is highly likely to take over following Senate confirmation. As early as last December, Powell publicly expressed his expectations for his departure: “I truly hope to hand over a well-positioned U.S. economy to my successor—one where inflation is returning to the 2% target in a controlled manner, while the labor market remains resilient.”

TradingKey - At 7:00 AM ET on May 1, the Bank of England voted 8-1 to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 3.75%, in line with market expectations. Beneath the calm surface of this decision lies the most complex policy divergence since 2022—the central bank has for the first time abandoned a single "central forecast" in favor of three scenarios to project inflation paths; more than half of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members hinted at potentially joining the rate hike camp in the coming months.

TradingKey - The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, and coupled with Powell's cautious remarks, the US dollar remained supported and continued to rise. US stocks may face pressure, while gold (XAUUSD) came under short-term pressure, briefly dipping to $4518.73. However, it failed to break below the $4500 mark, indicating that market selling pressure has been absorbed.

TradingKey — On April 28, the Bank of Japan concluded its two-day monetary policy meeting, announcing that it would maintain its short-term interest rate target unchanged at 0.75%. During the subsequent press conference, Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled a clear hawkish stance, emphasizing that the central bank will continue to advance the interest rate hike process based on economic conditions.

TradingKey - On April 28 local time, the Bank of Japan voted 6-3 to maintain interest rates at 0.75%. The USD/JPY exchange rate was trading near 159.67, just a step away from levels that could trigger further currency market intervention by the Bank of Japan.

TradingKey - Global financial markets are set for a "Super Central Bank Week" this week, as five major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan, are scheduled to release interest rate decisions in quick succession.

TradingKey - The Bank of Japan is set to announce its latest interest rate decision on the afternoon of April 30. Market bets on a rate hike at the end of April have dropped from 55% a few weeks ago to less than 20%.

TradingKey - The S&P 500 Index has undergone a historic multi-year rally and enters 2026, a critical inflection point in its trajectory, with several contributing factors, including the overall macroeconomic landscape (not just earnings or excitement regarding AI), contributing to this dynamic; thus

TradingKey - Ongoing turmoil in the Middle East is pushing the Bank of Japan’s rate hike decision into a dilemma.

TradingKey — U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Tuesday offered a rare endorsement of the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates steady, yet Goldman Sachs is refusing to blink on its call for two cuts this year. Why?

TradingKey - On April 13, ET, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, a key figure in the Trump administration, stated that amid the outbreak of war with Iran and surging oil prices, the Federal Reserve should "wait and assess" rather than rushing to cut interest rates. This stance suggests that the White House may briefly align with the Federal Reserve on economic policy. Previously, Trump had repeatedly pressured the Fed to cut rates and even threatened to remove Chairman Jerome Powell.

TradingKey — Latest reports indicate that the White House’s confidence in Kevin Warsh taking over as Fed Chair in May has significantly strengthened.

TradingKey - Market data shows that the current probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in 2026 is approximately 45%, significantly higher than the 12% recorded before the outbreak of the war in Iran. However, Goldman Sachs (GS) takes a different view, contending that market expect

TradingKey - Amid geopolitical conflicts driving up energy prices and market concerns over a resurgence in inflation, Powell's latest remarks provided key guidance: short-term shocks are not yet sufficient to alter the policy path, and the Federal Reserve remains inclined to "stand pat and observe."