Analysis

TradingKey - The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book shows that the U.S. economy continued to expand at a "slight to modest" pace from late May through June, with 11 out of 12 districts reporting growth, a performance slightly better than the previous period. On the macroeconomic front, the Beige Book indicated that the U.S. economy maintained a steady tone during the reporting period. Several districts reported that robust data center construction and machinery demand directly drove modest expansion in the manufacturing and construction sectors. In districts like San Francisco, while companies have reduced hiring, they are further directing capital into the AI field.

TradingKey - At 10:00 AM ET on Tuesday (July 13), Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh will appear before the U.S. House Financial Services Committee to testify on the Fed's semi-annual monetary policy report. This will mark the first time Warsh has submitted the semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress since taking office as Fed Chair. Subsequently, he will also attend a hearing before the Senate Banking Committee on July 15.

TradingKey - On July 8 local time, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting held on June 16-17. This was the first meeting minutes chaired by the new Chairman, Kevin Warsh, revealing severe divisions within the Federal Reserve regar

The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its June 16-17 FOMC monetary policy meeting on July 8. The document shows that the Fed's policy has completely shifted to a neutral, wait-and-see stance, with upside risks to inflation becoming the core contradiction. This FOMC meeting sent a clear signal that the Fed has completely moved away from its previous unilateral rate-cut bias and entered a period of two-way, flexible policy observation. Higher-than-expected inflation stickiness and its broadening scope are the core reasons for this policy shift, while the resilience of employment and growth provides room for flexible policy adjustments. Officials confirmed a further rise in inflation, noting that pressures are no longer confined to exogenous factors such as energy and tariffs. Instead, price increases have spread across a wide range of categories including transportation, airfares, and oil, with service inflation excluding housing showing almost no improvement. In the short term, as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz recovers and the marginal effects of tariffs fade, inflation is expected to decline gradually.

TradingKey - On Wednesday (July 1), Eastern Time, Fed Governor Warsh stated at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal, that while recent US inflation expectations and inflation risks have subsided to some extent, the Federal Reserve remains committed to bringing inflation back to its 2

TradingKey - Following the Federal Reserve's release of its June meeting decisions, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, a voting FOMC member this year, stated in his latest remarks that he has revised his full-year policy outlook from "one rate cut by year-end" in March to "one rate hike by year-end." This makes him the first core official in the current cycle to explicitly pivot to a rate-hike stance. The shift is primarily driven by the dual escalation of sticky inflation and geopolitical risks. Latest data shows that the Fed's preferred inflation gauge has risen to 4.1%, while core inflation reached 3.4%, both hitting more than two-year highs, with inflation deviating from the 2% target for five consecutive years. Kashkari believes that energy prices driven up by the Middle East conflict are unlikely to retreat rapidly, and there is insufficient certainty regarding compliance with the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement. With geopolitical supply risks yet to be fully cleared, upward pressure on inflation persists.

TradingKey - On Wednesday, June 17 (Eastern Time), the Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged, marking the FOMC's fourth pause since 2026. This was the debut FOMC meeting for the Fed's new Chair, Kevin Warsh. The post-meeting statement was extremely brief, consisting of only three paragraphs and approximately 114 words.

TradingKey - The monetary policy meeting chaired by newly appointed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has concluded, with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) keeping the interest rate range unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, as widely expected. The key focus of this meeting was not the interest rate decision itself, but rather Warsh's first round of systemic adjustments to the Fed's policy framework and communication style. The first FOMC policy statement underwent a radical overhaul, totaling only about 130 words—slashed by more than half from the previous conventional length of over 300 words—marking the first clear signal of a shift in the Fed's communication mechanism under Warsh's leadership.

TradingKey - On June 17, Eastern Time, the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision statement indicated that it chose to hold rates steady at this policy meeting, maintaining the federal funds rate in the 3.50%–3.75% range, while keeping the monetary policy framework of ample reserves in the banking system unchanged. The interest rate dot plot released alongside this Fed rate decision sent a clear hawkish signal. The median rate in the dot plot was recorded at 3.8%, a significant upward revision from the March projection of 3.4%.

TradingKey - The Federal Reserve will convene the FOMC meeting on June 16-17 Eastern Time, announcing its interest rate decision and latest economic projections on June 17. The current target range for the federal funds rate stands at 3.50% to 3.75%. Based on the latest U.S. CPI and non-farm payroll data, the most likely outcome of the June meeting is to keep interest rates unchanged while signaling a more hawkish policy stance.

TradingKey - The Federal Reserve will hold its interest rate meeting on June 16-17 ET. The market widely expects rates to remain unchanged, though officials may overall signal a hawkish stance.

TradingKey - On May 22, Eastern Time, Kevin Warsh officially assumed office as the 17th Chair of the Federal Reserve; he is set to preside over his first FOMC policy meeting on June 17. However, while markets widely expected the Trump-nominated chair to push for rate cuts, a hawkish camp within the Federal Reserve has already begun to align even before he formally took office.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller said on Friday that he does not expect to support a change in the policy rate in the near term, adding that the outcome will depend heavily on the length of the Iran conflict, per Reuters.

TradingKey - The Federal Reserve is scheduled to release the minutes of the April FOMC meeting on May 21. This will be the first set of minutes in 2026 not led by Powell. On May 15, Kevin Warsh officially took office as the 17th Chair of the Federal Reserve; the leadership transition between the two chairs took place precisely between the conclusion of the meeting and the publication of the minutes.

TradingKey - Data released by the Japanese government on Tuesday showed that nominal GDP for fiscal year 2025 grew by 4.2% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive year of positive growth as total nominal GDP continued to hit record highs. In the first quarter of 2026, the annualized GDP growth rate reached 2.1%, exceeding the 1.7% median forecast by analysts surveyed by Reuters and marking a significant acceleration from the 1.3% growth seen in the previous quarter. Takayuki Toji, senior economist at Japan Post Insurance, stated that the government may become more receptive to further interest rate hikes, potentially leaving room for the Bank of Japan to raise rates as early as June or July, prior to the next GDP data release.

TradingKey - On May 12, the Summary of Opinions from the Bank of Japan's April meeting, released on Monday, sent a clear tightening signal. However, the foreign exchange market delivered a contrary response; despite intensifying expectations for interest rate hikes, the yen weakened.

TradingKey - Last Friday, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee publicly questioned the Trump administration’s logic for interest rate cuts, arguing that widespread expectations for AI productivity could itself drive interest rates higher. However, if this technological revolution disappoints, it co

TradingKey - After eight years at the helm of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell’s term as Chair will officially conclude on May 15. Kevin Warsh, nominated by President Trump, is highly likely to take over following Senate confirmation. As early as last December, Powell publicly expressed his expectations for his departure: “I truly hope to hand over a well-positioned U.S. economy to my successor—one where inflation is returning to the 2% target in a controlled manner, while the labor market remains resilient.”

TradingKey - At 7:00 AM ET on May 1, the Bank of England voted 8-1 to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 3.75%, in line with market expectations. Beneath the calm surface of this decision lies the most complex policy divergence since 2022—the central bank has for the first time abandoned a single "central forecast" in favor of three scenarios to project inflation paths; more than half of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members hinted at potentially joining the rate hike camp in the coming months.

TradingKey - The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, and coupled with Powell's cautious remarks, the US dollar remained supported and continued to rise. US stocks may face pressure, while gold (XAUUSD) came under short-term pressure, briefly dipping to $4518.73. However, it failed to break below the $4500 mark, indicating that market selling pressure has been absorbed.