Analysis

TradingKey - On Friday, June 5 (ET), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the May non-farm payrolls report. The market generally expects U.S. non-farm job growth to slow further from April, with current forecasts ranging from approximately 85,000 to 96,000, compared to the previous figure of 115,000. The unemployment rate is projected to remain around 4.2% to 4.3%, while the month-on-month growth of average hourly earnings is expected to pick up to 0.3%, up from the previous 0.2%.

TradingKey - U.S. April PCE data indicates that inflationary pressures remain sticky; although the core monthly rate was lower than expected, it is unlikely to shift the Federal Reserve's cautious stance.

TradingKey - On May 22 (ET), the U.S. will release the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for May. Market expectations currently project the index to remain at 48.2, unchanged from the preliminary reading. While the indicator reflects consumer sentiment regarding the economy, income, and purchasing conditions, investors in the current market environment are focusing more on the 1-year and 5-year inflation expectations, as these will directly influence Fed policy expectations, U.S. Treasury yields, and the performance of the U.S. Dollar and gold.

The United Kingdom (UK) Office for National Statistics (ONS) will publish the high-impact Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March at 06:00 GMT.

TradingKey - The U.S. is set to release April PPI data at 8:30 AM ET on May 13. Markets widely expect the U.S. April PPI to continue its upward trend, with the consensus pointing to a year-on-year growth rate of 4.9%, up from 4.0% in March. If realized, concerns regarding the upstream transmission of inflationary pressures will further intensify.

Wall Street faces a tug-of-war between strong AI-driven earnings and rising macro risks. While tech stocks remain resilient, persistent inflation (3.3%) and Middle East tensions are fueling volatility. All eyes turn to upcoming CPI data to determine if the Fed will maintain its hawkish stance throug

TradingKey - On May 8 at 8:30 AM ET, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the April Non-farm Payrolls report. This marks the first time in nearly a year that non-farm payrolls have recorded growth for two consecutive months, further supporting the Federal Reserve's stance to maintain interest rates and shifting market focus toward inflation data. Specifically, U.S. April seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls increased by 115,000, exceeding the expected 62,000, while the previous figure was revised from 178,000 to 185,000.

At 8:30 AM ET on May 8, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the April non-farm payroll data. Against the backdrop of geopolitical tensions driving up inflation, the non-farm payroll report will serve as a key bellwether for the labor market and influence the trajectory of the Fede

TradingKey - The Federal Reserve is scheduled to hold its monetary policy meeting on April 28-29, with the market widely expecting interest rates to be maintained between 3.50% and 3.75% for the third consecutive time. CME FedWatch data indicates that the market has fully priced in expectations for the Fed to hold steady this month.

TradingKey - This Tuesday (April 21), the United States will release its retail sales data for March. This data is widely regarded as a core indicator for monitoring U.S. household consumption and serves as a vital reference for assessing economic growth. The report provides a monthly observation of U.S. retail and food services consumption, encompassing various categories such as department stores, automobiles, and apparel.

TradingKey - Following the rebound of the March CPI to 3.3% YoY last week, market focus has shifted to the March Producer Price Index (PPI) scheduled for release on Tuesday, ET. This serves as a critical window for the Federal Reserve to assess when inflationary pressures will transmit to final consumption and as a benchmark to gauge the impact of Middle East conflicts on the real economy.

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TradingKey - Energy price shockwaves triggered by the U.S.-Iran war are profoundly impacting the U.S. economy. The latest March Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that CPI rose sharply by 0.9% month-on-month, with the year-on-year increase climbing to 3.3%.

TradingKey - At 8:30 AM ET on Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor will release the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. The market generally expects inflation to record its sharpest monthly jump since 2022. This will be the first inflation report to fully incorporate the surge in oil prices and serves as a key data point to test whether the "energy shock" has spread across the broader economy.

TradingKey - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release February non-farm payroll data at 8:30 AM ET on March 6. This release comes at a juncture caught in the pendulum of Middle East geopolitical conflicts and the "AI disruption" narrative, as market capital remains cautious.

TradingKey - Impacted by the situation in the Middle East, global oil prices have seen a rapid surge. As of now, crude oil prices have reached $80 per barrel. International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated that if energy prices rise by 10% and persist for a year, global inflation would increase by 40 basis points, while economic growth would slow by 0.1% to 0.2%.

TradingKey - Recently, long-term Japanese government bonds (JGBs) have faced a sustained sell-off, causing prices to plunge and yields to surge to nearly 27-year highs. On January 20, the 10-year JGB yield climbed to 2.330% at one point, marking its highest level since February 1999. On February 9,

TradingKey - Against the backdrop of the U.S. economy demonstrating robust resilience and the coordinated easing of monetary and fiscal policies, the nonfarm payrolls data are likely to beat the market consensus expectations.

TradingKey - This week, investor attention will shift back to macroeconomics, monetary policy, and corporate earnings, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision taking center stage. In US equities, tech giants including Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA) are schedu

TradingKey - U.S. Department of Commerce According to data released on Thursday local time, the U.S. goods and services trade deficit in October significantly narrowed to $29.4 billion, marking the lowest monthly level since June 2009.