Analysis

TradingKey - The United States will release June Consumer Price Index (CPI) data this Tuesday, marking one of the most critical macro events for global financial markets this week. Following a significant pickup in U.S. inflation in May, and as recent Middle East tensions, oil price volatility, Fed meeting minutes, and non-farm payroll data collectively shift market expectations, the June CPI will significantly impact the Federal Reserve's next policy assessment while directly determining the short-term trajectory of U.S. stocks, the U.S. Dollar (USD), and Gold (XAUUSD).

TradingKey - Due to the US Independence Day holiday, the June non-farm payrolls report, originally scheduled for Friday, was released early on Thursday, delivering a major disappointment that fell far short of market expectations. Data showed that US non-farm payrolls increased by only 57,000 in June, roughly half of the market forecast of 113,000, and marking a significant decline from May's sharply downward-revised 129,000.

TradingKey - As June draws to a close, market focus is shifting to the upcoming US non-farm payrolls (NFP) data for June, scheduled for release this Thursday (July 2). The release of this NFP report has been moved forward to Thursday as US markets will be closed on Friday (July 3) in observance of the Independence Day holiday.

TradingKey - Due to the US Independence Day holiday on July 3, the June non-farm payrolls report, originally scheduled for Friday, will be released early on July 2. Regarded as a "barometer" of the US economy, this data will not only directly influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions in the second half of the year, but could also trigger a new round of volatility in global financial markets.

TradingKey - The United States is scheduled to release the May PCE price index on June 25, Eastern Time. As one of the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicators, it will serve as key data for the short-term market to gauge the Fed's policy path. For investors, the focus is on whether the data can alter interest rate expectations following the Fed's latest hawkish stance.

Tradingkey - On Wednesday Eastern Time, data released by the U.S. Census Bureau showed that U.S. retail sales rose 0.9% month-on-month in May, significantly higher than the market expectation of 0.5%. Retail and food services sales in May reached $763.7 billion, up 6.9% year-on-year. Meanwhile, the retail sales growth from March to April was revised down to 0.4% from the previously reported 0.5%.

TradingKey - The Federal Reserve will announce its policy decision this Wednesday, marking the first rate-setting meeting chaired by the new Chairman, Warsh. Global investors are currently paying close attention to the new Chairman's policy stance, especially against the backdrop of the imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and signs of cooling core inflation.

TradingKey - Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday showed that the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 1.1% month-over-month in May, matching the April gain and exceeding market expectations of 0.7%. The unadjusted final demand PPI rose 6.5% year-over-year, the largest 12-month increase since November 2022, signaling that wholesale inflationary pressures in the U.S. continue to intensify.

TradingKey - On Wednesday Eastern Time, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released data showing that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.5% month-over-month in May, compared to the previous value of 0.6%. The CPI rose 4.2% year-over-year, up from 3.8% in April, indicating that inflationary pressures continue to build. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2% month-over-month, lower than April’s 0.4%. Core CPI rose 2.9% year-over-year, edging up slightly from the previous 2.8%.

TradingKey - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release May CPI data at 8:30 AM ET on June 10. This report is the most critical inflation reading ahead of the Federal Reserve's June 16-17 policy meeting and serves as key data for the market to gauge whether the Fed needs to maintain its hawkish stance following strong non-farm payrolls.

TradingKey - Following the severe turbulence of last Friday's "Black Friday," Wall Street is awaiting the release of U.S. May Consumer Price Index (CPI) data this Wednesday with bated breath. Traders are widely concerned that the report could reveal the largest surge in inflation in years, potentially extinguishing market hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year and significantly bolstering rate hike expectations.

TradingKey - On June 5, Eastern Time, the latest employment report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 172,000 in May, significantly higher than market expectations. Economists had generally expected an addition of approximately 85,000 jobs for May; the actual data significantly exceeded expectations, indicating that the U.S. labor market remains resilient.

TradingKey - On June 3 (ET), U.S. ADP employment data for May showed that private sector payrolls increased by 122,000, exceeding market expectations of approximately 118,000. The April figure was revised downward from 109,000 to 105,000. The data indicates that U.S. private sector hiring remains resilient ahead of Friday's non-farm payrolls report.

TradingKey - On Friday, June 5 (ET), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the May non-farm payrolls report. The market generally expects U.S. non-farm job growth to slow further from April, with current forecasts ranging from approximately 85,000 to 96,000, compared to the previous figure of 115,000. The unemployment rate is projected to remain around 4.2% to 4.3%, while the month-on-month growth of average hourly earnings is expected to pick up to 0.3%, up from the previous 0.2%.

TradingKey - U.S. April PCE data indicates that inflationary pressures remain sticky; although the core monthly rate was lower than expected, it is unlikely to shift the Federal Reserve's cautious stance.

TradingKey - On May 22 (ET), the U.S. will release the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for May. Market expectations currently project the index to remain at 48.2, unchanged from the preliminary reading. While the indicator reflects consumer sentiment regarding the economy, income, and purchasing conditions, investors in the current market environment are focusing more on the 1-year and 5-year inflation expectations, as these will directly influence Fed policy expectations, U.S. Treasury yields, and the performance of the U.S. Dollar and gold.

The United Kingdom (UK) Office for National Statistics (ONS) will publish the high-impact Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March at 06:00 GMT.

TradingKey - The U.S. is set to release April PPI data at 8:30 AM ET on May 13. Markets widely expect the U.S. April PPI to continue its upward trend, with the consensus pointing to a year-on-year growth rate of 4.9%, up from 4.0% in March. If realized, concerns regarding the upstream transmission of inflationary pressures will further intensify.

Wall Street faces a tug-of-war between strong AI-driven earnings and rising macro risks. While tech stocks remain resilient, persistent inflation (3.3%) and Middle East tensions are fueling volatility. All eyes turn to upcoming CPI data to determine if the Fed will maintain its hawkish stance throug

TradingKey - On May 8 at 8:30 AM ET, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the April Non-farm Payrolls report. This marks the first time in nearly a year that non-farm payrolls have recorded growth for two consecutive months, further supporting the Federal Reserve's stance to maintain interest rates and shifting market focus toward inflation data. Specifically, U.S. April seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls increased by 115,000, exceeding the expected 62,000, while the previous figure was revised from 178,000 to 185,000.