Analysis

TradingKey - During the Asian session on July 6, WTI (USOIL) crude oil prices extended their rebound from last Friday, surging to an intraday high of $69.26 before consolidating around $68.60. From a technical perspective, oil prices are recovering after previously falling to a near four-month low. However, the strength of this rebound remains limited, primarily due to the resumption of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and OPEC's production increase measures.

TradingKey - Before the market opened on July 6, Eastern Time, as the U.S. stock market was closed last Friday for the Independence Day holiday, investors turned more to commodities, foreign exchange, and crypto assets for signals of shifts in risk appetite.

Tradingkey - On July 3, Eastern Time, the U.S. stock market is closed today in observance of the Independence Day holiday. Trading for precious metals, energy, foreign exchange, U.S. Treasury, and equity index futures contracts under the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) ended early at 13:00 Eastern Time. Trading for Brent crude oil futures contracts under the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) ended early at 13:30 Eastern Time. Currently, the two major crude oil futures are trading flat, with prices hovering around $68. The overall market has entered a phase of cooling down. The core driver of the market adjustment stems from the narrowing of risk premiums led by the rapid easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, as well as the recovery of supply-side expectations driven by the gradual restoration of global energy transit channels. The market is still awaiting the next catalyst.

TradingKey - As of the Asian session on July 3, silver (XAGUSD) prices extended the post-nonfarm payrolls rebound sentiment from yesterday, climbing back above $62. Technical analysis indicates that silver may continue to rally, with prospects of testing the $70 mark.

TradingKey - As of the Asian session on July 3, gold prices (XAUUSD) extended yesterday's rally, hitting an intraday high of $4,195.52. From a market perspective, gold prices have surged by a cumulative total of over $100 since the release of yesterday's non-farm payrolls data, indicating that marke

TradingKey - As of the European trading session on July 2, WTI (USOIL) crude oil prices fluctuated weakly around $68, extending the previous downward trend. From a technical perspective, against the backdrop of easing US-Iran tensions, WTI crude oil prices have continued to decline, briefly breaking through the $68 mark today to touch a low of $67.45, marking a new low since March this year.

TradingKey - As of the Asian session on July 2, gold prices (XAUUSD) fluctuated around $4,050, continuing to strengthen slightly from yesterday. From a technical perspective, gold prices dipped to $3,959.64 on Wednesday but still closed firmly above the $4,000 level, indicating that significant bargain-hunting buyers near $4,000 are supporting the metal. The primary factors driving the recent recovery and rebound in gold prices are twofold: on one hand, remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh on Wednesday eased market concerns over further rate hikes; on the other hand, Trump's statement that US-Iran talks have commenced has further cooled Middle East tensions, driving gold prices higher.

TradingKey - On July 1, Eastern Time, gold (XAUUSD) surged past $4,100 at one point, reclaiming a near one-week high. As of press time, it was up 2.27% to trade at $4,098 per ounce. Newly appointed Fed Chairman Warsh stated on Wednesday that both inflation expectations and inflation risks have declined in recent weeks.

TradingKey - As the temporary US-Iran peace agreement took effect and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz gradually returned to normal, international crude oil prices plunged nearly 30% in the second quarter, recording the largest single-quarter decline since 2020, following a first-quarter surge triggered by geopolitical conflicts.

TradingKey - As of today's (July 1) early Asian session, gold (XAUUSD) prices maintained a weak intraday decline. After consolidating above $4,000 at yesterday's close, the gold price broke below $4,000 again today, indicating that market sentiment leans bearish amid instability in the US-Iran situation.

TradingKey - As of the Asian trading session today (June 30), gold (XAUUSD) extended its recent downward trend, with intraday prices briefly falling below $4,000 to hit a new year-to-date low of $3,942.50. The primary reasons for today's decline in gold are: uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran situation has heightened inflation expectations, while the non-farm payrolls data to be released this Thursday may reduce market liquidity, further putting pressure on the upward movement of gold prices.

TradingKey - On June 29, Eastern Time, clear divergences emerged in the statements from both sides regarding whether the US and Iran would hold talks in Doha on the 30th.

TradingKey - As of the European session on June 29, WTI crude oil (USOIL) prices fluctuated and weakened near $70.00. From the market perspective, oil prices opened slightly higher due to the renewed exchange of fire between the US and Iran, but subsequently weakened again as tensions eased.

TradingKey - Heading into the second half of 2026, the gold market has transitioned from a strong performer early in the year to an asset undergoing a high-level correction. Recently, gold prices fell below the $4,000 threshold for the first time since November 2025, down approximately 29% from the all-time high of $5,597.91 reached in January. On the surface, gold seems to have entered a period of distinct weakness. However, looking at the full-year horizon, can gold still rise in 2026? The answer is that while short-term pressure persists, there are still opportunities for a medium-term recovery, and the long-term bullish thesis remains intact.

TradingKey - Under the hawkish pivot of the new Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh, the trading logic for gold has undergone a consequential shift, with several mainstream Wall Street investment banks collectively downgrading their gold price forecasts. Recently, spot gold briefly broke below the $4,000 threshold, hitting a low of $3,959.49. Goldman Sachs lowered its year-end gold target to $4,900, while Deutsche Bank estimated that gold prices could drop to as low as $3,800 under an extreme scenario.

TradingKey - Vessel transit has resumed through the Strait of Hormuz, significantly cooling concerns over crude oil supply disruptions in the Persian Gulf. Catalyzed by the easing of geopolitical risks, international oil prices have retreated to a four-month low, with the previously accumulated geopolitical risk premium rapidly unwinding. The latest reports indicate that Saudi Arabia is increasing its crude oil shipments while boosting loading volumes at its Red Sea ports. Reportedly, the Port of Ras Tanura, which was shut down due to conflict, has restarted crude oil loading operations, with Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) docking to load cargo—marking the port's first return to normal operations since March. Meanwhile, the Port of Yanbu on the Red Sea remains highly active, with all seven of its crude oil berths operating at full capacity for the first time, driving a continuous month-on-month increase in export volumes.

TradingKey - The countdown has begun for the U.S. copper tariff decision. The U.S. Department of Commerce must submit its "Section 232" investigation report to the White House by June 30 to ultimately decide whether to impose import tariffs on refined copper.

TradingKey - As of today (June 26) during the Asian session, gold (XAUUSD) prices fluctuated around $4,010. Yesterday, gold rebounded briefly following the release of the PCE data, with market sentiment improving significantly compared to before the release. However, from an overall structural perspective, gold has not yet fully shaken off its weak setup. Although the PCE data did not deteriorate further beyond expectations, triggering short-term short-covering, US inflation remains significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Expectations of future Fed rate hikes persist, limiting the upside potential for gold's rebound.

TradingKey - On June 25, Eastern Time, senior Iraqi oil officials pressured OPEC, demanding a significant increase in the country's production quota, warning that they would otherwise be "forced to consider all available options." Sources revealed that while Iraqi officials had seriously considered withdrawing from OPEC, the current plan is to remain within the organization and push for a higher quota.

TradingKey - As of the Asian session today (June 25), gold (XAUUSD) was trading at $3,976.90, down 0.54% intraday. Following yesterday's drop below $4,000, gold prices fluctuated near $3,980 today, indicating that the market is awaiting further catalytic signals to determine its short-term direction. Notably, the U.S. May PCE data is scheduled to be released today.