Analysis

TradingKey - As of the European session on August 11, gold prices (XAUUSD) briefly topped $4,400 intraday, peaking at $4,435.2 to mark a new high since June 5. However, the gains narrowed significantly later, with gold pulling back to near $4,360. The recent sustained strength in gold has been primarily driven by market expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes weakening following a cooling U.S. labor market. Nonetheless, intraday gains in crude oil prices reignited inflation concerns, causing gold to face notable profit-taking above the $4,400 level.

TradingKey - As of the Asian session on August 10, gold prices (XAUUSD) extended last week's upward trend following a sharp rally. Gold was recently trading near $4,345, up approximately 0.2% intraday. Last week’s weak U.S. July non-farm payrolls report pushed gold prices to a seven-week high, and the metal remains stable above $4,300. Market focus this week shifts to the upcoming CPI and PPI data, which will further determine whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in September and serve as key catalysts for gold's next directional phase.

TradingKey - International oil prices continued to rise on Monday as the market remains focused on navigation prospects in the Strait of Hormuz and developments in the Middle East. Brent crude oil futures (UKOIL-F) rose 2.65% to $84.38 per barrel, while WTI crude oil futures (USOIL-F) increased by 2.22% to $78.75 per barrel.

Spot gold (XAUUSD) broke through the $4,350 mark on August 7, Eastern Time, and is currently heading toward $4,400. This marks the first time gold has returned to this level since June 17. The immediate factor driving the increase in gold prices was the cooling of U.S. July non-farm payrolls data. H

TradingKey - As of the European session on August 7, gold prices (XAUUSD) extended their recent strong performance, rising more than 1% intraday and briefly surpassing the $4,300 mark. With a cumulative weekly gain of over 6%, gold is on track to record its largest single-week increase since January. As the market awaits the release of U.S. July non-farm payroll data, investors are re-evaluating whether a Federal Reserve rate hike in September remains necessary, placing gold in a critical phase for its next near-term directional move.

TradingKey - Explore how Japan's monetary policy, the yen carry trade, and global liquidity shape gold beyond the dollar and interest rates.

Spot gold (XAUUSD) briefly climbed above $4,200 during Wednesday's session. The market is digesting a notable slowdown in U.S. private-sector hiring while monitoring expectations for an easing of shipping disputes in the Strait of Hormuz, with both factors collectively amplifying short-term volatility in the precious metals market.

TradingKey - As of the Asian trading session on August 3, WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) prices plunged, breaking below the $80 level with an intraday decline of more than 9%, while Brent Crude Oil (UKOIL) fell by over 8% in tandem. Last week, the oil market was supported by supply disruption risks in the Middle East. However, prices retreated under pressure at this week’s opening following Trump’s statement on Saturday regarding the suspension of new military strikes against Iran, as well as the OPEC+ announcement to continue increasing production.

TradingKey - International oil prices fell sharply during Monday's Asian trading session. U.S. President Trump announced a suspension of new military actions against Iran and the restarting of negotiations regarding the nuclear issue and the Strait of Hormuz, significantly easing market concerns over Middle East crude oil supply disruptions. Meanwhile, OPEC+ decided to continue increasing its production target for September, further intensifying downward pressure on oil prices.

TradingKey - As of the Asian session on July 30, gold prices (XAUUSD) surged and then retreated following the Federal Reserve meeting, dipping to as low as $4,028.62 during the session. From a technical perspective, gold prices briefly climbed to $4,116.28 after the Fed announced its interest rate decision but failed to hold the $4,100 level. As the market reassessed internal divisions within the Fed regarding rate hikes and U.S. Treasury yields rebounded, short-term bullish momentum for gold has significantly weakened.

On July 28, ET, international crude oil prices fell further, marking the official entry of oil prices into a correction phase. Brent crude (UKOIL) saw losses widen to over 5%, while WTI crude (USOIL) dropped more than 4%, reflecting the market re-pricing the prospects of easing supply risks in the Middle East.

TradingKey - On July 27, international crude oil prices fell sharply, ending a previous strong rally driven by Middle East supply risks. As of the European session, Brent crude (UKOIL) fell over 13% to trade near $85.23 per barrel, while WTI crude (USOIL) declined more than 8% to around $83.08.

TradingKey - As of the Asian trading session on July 27, gold prices (XAUUSD) opened with a strong gap up today and maintained an upward trend throughout the day, briefly breaking above $4,100 and reaching a high of $4,116. From a market perspective, gold prices rebounded after being suppressed last week by surging oil prices and Federal Reserve rate hike expectations. The recovery is primarily attributed to signs of a pause in the conflict between the U.S. and Iran, which led to a significant pullback in international oil prices and eased market concerns regarding energy prices driving up U.S. inflation.

The escalating conflict between the U.S. and Iran has driven a unilateral rise in oil prices. WTI crude oil futures have returned to $90, while Brent crude oil futures have returned to $100, with both benchmarks reclaiming their early-June highs. Market focus is gradually shifting from the geopolitical event itself toward expectations regarding the duration of the conflict, a variable that is becoming the key factor influencing the direction of oil prices.

TradingKey - Driven by the continued escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, Brent crude (UKOIL) has surpassed the $100 per barrel mark again after two months, as concerns over global oil supply security rapidly intensify. Meanwhile, expanding energy transportation risks, tightening refinery supplies, and renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran are prompting investors to reassess the future trajectory of oil prices.

TradingKey - During the Asian trading session on July 24, gold prices (XAUUSD) continued to fall intraday, nearing the $4,000 mark at one point. From a market perspective, gold prices rebounded this week from $4,000 to a high of $4,166.19. However, as oil prices continued to climb and Brent crude (UKOIL) once again moved back above $100, gold prices came under pressure and retreated amid market concerns over expectations of resurgent U.S. inflation.

TradingKey - On July 23, international oil prices continued to rise sharply. WTI crude oil (USOIL) prices broke through the $90 mark intraday, gaining more than 4%, while Brent crude oil (UKOIL) rose to a high of $98.75, just a step away from the $100 threshold. Oil prices have now risen for five consecutive trading sessions, as market focus remains on the risk of disrupted crude oil transportation in the Middle East.

Tradingkey - A quiet transformation is underway in the gold market: increasingly, short-term price moves are driven less by news and more by systematic capital.

TradingKey - As tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate, the international crude oil market has once again come under intense pressure. Driven by rising geopolitical risks, global oil prices surged on the 22nd, with WTI crude futures (UKOIL-F) rising as much as 4.28% to $88.17 per barrel; Brent crude futures (USOIL-F) broke through $95 per barrel, returning to this level for the first time since June 11.

TradingKey - Goldman Sachs' (GS) global commodities research team released a new report stating that if the transportation of crude oil and refined products through the Strait of Hormuz faces sustained and severe disruptions, Brent crude (UKOIL) prices could rise above $120 per barrel by the fourth quarter of 2026. Goldman Sachs also emphasized that $120 is not its current baseline forecast, but rather an upside scenario based on conditions such as long-term restrictions on transit through the strait, a significant decline in crude oil exports from the Gulf region, and insufficient alternative transportation capacity.