Analysis

Tradingkey - On April 13, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned in its monthly report that global crude oil inventories are shrinking at a record pace due to supply disruptions triggered by the Iran war, which could drive oil prices even higher. The report highlighted that, faced with unprecedented disruptions to Middle Eastern crude supplies, importing nations are depleting their oil stocks at record speeds. In April, the average daily reduction in global crude oil and refined product inventories neared 4 million barrels. This scale of depletion exceeds the combined consumption of the United Kingdom and Germany, significantly undermining the buffer capacity of nations to manage supply shocks.

TradingKey - The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently warned that global oil inventories are being depleted at a record pace. Should current conditions persist, oil prices could see a further sharp increase this summer. Morgan Stanley strategist Martijn Rats noted in a report on Monday that, in a worst-case scenario, Brent crude prices could surge to $130–$150 per barrel.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $95.70 during the early Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The WTI price edges higher amid renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

TradingKey - Bloomberg reports, citing Morgan Stanley (MS) analysts, that the global crude oil market is in a critical "race against time" phase, with the duration of any potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz becoming the core variable driving oil price trends.

Tradingkey - International oil prices surged during early Asian trading hours after U.S. President Trump and Iran rejected each other's latest responses to long-term peace proposals. Both major crude oil futures rose by over 3%, with WTI crude briefly hitting the $100 mark again. As of press time, WTI is up 3.79% at $99/bbl, while Brent crude has gained 3.29% to reach $104.62/bbl.

TradingKey — As the U.S.-Iran war continues, the "NACHO" trade has become the most prevalent play on Wall Street. NACHO, which stands for "Not A Chance Hormuz Opens," signifies the belief that the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen. Market analysis indicates that growing skepticism over a near-term en

TradingKey - On May 8 (ET), Citi stated that oil prices could rise further if US-Iran negotiations remain deadlocked, maintaining its forecast that Brent crude will reach $120 over the next three months.

TradingKey - Oil prices surge as US-Iran clashes resume following a brief de-escalation.

TradingKey - WTI crude oil futures settled at $96.21 per barrel on May 6, plummeting 6.3%. This marked the first close below the $100 level in six days and the largest single-day decline since March 17. Brent crude oil futures fell over 7.73% on the same day, intraday breaking below the $100 mark for the first time since April 22.

TradingKey - During pre-market trading on May 5, international crude oil losses widened. WTI crude oil futures briefly fell below $90, hitting a low of $88.71 for the first time since April 21, with losses reaching as much as 13.2%. Brent crude plummeted as much as 12%, hitting a low of $96.77.

TradingKey - International oil prices experienced another massive sell-off during Wednesday's Asian trading session. This followed reports citing U.S. and Iranian officials that both sides are close to reaching a one-page memorandum to end the war.

TradingKey - Despite the continued delay in reaching an agreement between the U.S. and Iran, the ceasefire currently remains in place. Against this backdrop, market expectations for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have turned optimistic. Prediction market Polymarket shows a 50% probability that normal navigation will resume by the end of June. However, from a professional perspective, the reality may not be as optimistic.

TradingKey - During Tuesday's European trading session, international crude oil prices retreated significantly, with Brent crude futures extending intraday losses to 3.0%, trading at $107.11 per barrel. WTI crude futures also fell 3.0% to $103.57 per barrel. The geopolitical premium previously accumulated due to Middle East tensions saw a clear retracement, as energy market volatility continues to intensify.

Japan's government bond yield curve steepened on Thursday, with the benchmark 10-year yield hitting a 29-year high, as reports of U.S. military action to end the Iran stalemate drove oil to a four-year high and fuelled inflation concerns.

TradingKey - As hopes for a resolution to the U.S.-Iran deadlock fade, oil price gains extended during Asian trading. On Thursday, influenced by pessimistic news regarding the progress of peace negotiations, Brent crude June futures jumped over 4% to surpass the $122 mark, reaching a new high since the Iran war.

TradingKey - On April 28, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced that it will officially withdraw from OPEC and the OPEC+ alliance on May 1. The UAE stated that this move is intended to fulfill its crude oil supply responsibilities. However, some analyses suggest the real reasons may be its long-s

TradingKey - The UAE has officially announced that it will formally withdraw from OPEC and the OPEC+ alliance on May 1. The current market consensus is that Brent crude oil prices are unlikely to experience significant volatility in the short term, as the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz remains the core bottleneck restricting energy exports from the Gulf.

TradingKey - During Tuesday’s (April 28) US pre-market session, WTI crude oil surged over 5% intraday, hitting $101.81, its highest price since April 13. Brent crude rose nearly 4% intraday, reaching a high of $105.81. On the news front, the U.S. canceled a new round of negotiations originally scheduled to take place in Pakistan this weekend. While Iran has proposed a new plan, Trump remains dissatisfied, potentially increasing market expectations for prolonged hostilities.

TradingKey - International oil prices extended their gains on Monday. At the market close on April 27 ET, Brent crude rose 2.75% to $108.23 per barrel, while WTI rose 2.09% to $96.37 per barrel. Following the collapse of the second round of US-Iran negotiations and the unresolved blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, expectations of supply disruptions have continued to push oil prices higher. As of 18:00 Beijing Time on April 28, Brent crude broke through the $111 mark.

TradingKey - On April 26, Eastern Time, Citigroup raised its 2026 Brent crude oil price forecast to $150. Citing the deadlock in U.S.-Iran negotiations and the resulting persistent blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Citi believes the situation in the Middle East has shifted from a short-term risk to a structural variable that could continuously disrupt global supply.