Analysis

Tradingkey - U.S. June CPI inflation slowed more than market expectations, but Fed Chair Wash delivered hawkish remarks, emphasizing that the current primary task is to restore price stability and ensure the high inflation of the past five years becomes a thing of the past. On July 14, Eastern Time, inflation data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the unadjusted June CPI increased by 3.5% year-on-year, significantly lower than the market expectation of 3.8%; the CPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, also exceeding the expected 0.1% decline. In terms of core inflation, the core CPI monthly rate recorded 0%, the smallest increase since January 2021, compared to market expectations of 0.2%. Overall, while the slowdown in June CPI exceeded expectations due to falling energy prices, significant inflationary pressures remain, as the current 3.5% year-on-year increase is still a considerable distance from the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target.

TradingKey - On July 13 ET, U.S. President Trump stated that the United States will ensure the Strait of Hormuz remains open and may directly manage this critical global energy transit route. Trump declared that the U.S. will serve as the "guardian" of the strait, while announcing the reinstatement of a naval blockade against Iran and plans to levy a fee on vessels passing through the strait equivalent to 20% of the cargo value to offset the costs incurred by the U.S. in providing security.

TradingKey - The two major crude oil futures benchmarks surged nearly 10%. As of writing, WTI crude rose 9.22% to $78.09, and Brent crude rose 9.39% to $83.15. Reportedly, the U.S. Navy-led Combined Maritime Information Center stated that the U.S. military will begin implementing a maritime blockade of all Iranian ports and coastal areas starting at 20:00 GMT on July 14. The blockade applies to all vessels, regardless of their flag, and covers the entire Iranian coastline, including but not limited to all Iranian ports and oil terminals. The blockade will not impede the transit of neutral vessels through the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian destinations. Shipments of humanitarian supplies will be permitted, subject to inspection.

TradingKey - WTI crude oil (USOIL) prices surged during the early Asian session on July 13. Driven by the escalation of the US-Iran conflict over the weekend, the market has factored the risk of supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz back into its trading logic, with WTI crude rising by over 4% to reach an intraday high of $74.66.

TradingKey - On July 12, Eastern Time, renewed military conflict broke out between the United States and Iran, significantly escalating tensions in the Middle East. According to the latest reports, a container ship was attacked and caught fire near the Strait of Hormuz. Subsequently, the U.S. launched airstrikes on multiple military targets inside Iran, while Iran responded by launching missiles and drones at several U.S.-affiliated facilities in the Middle East, further intensifying the military confrontation between the two sides.

TradingKey - As of the Asian session on July 9, following a sharp rebound in WTI (USOIL) crude oil prices for two consecutive trading days, oil prices fluctuated and consolidated around $73.30 today. From a technical perspective, the recent deterioration of US-Iran relations and renewed clashes betw

Tradingkey - On July 8, Eastern Time, the two major crude oil futures surged sharply, with Brent crude on the verge of reclaiming the $80 mark, returning to its mid-June highs. It is reported that during his attendance at the NATO summit in Turkey, US President Trump stated that the US military might launch another military strike against Iran tonight. As of press time, Brent crude rose over 7% to $79.41, peaking at $79.93; WTI crude oil futures rose approximately 7% to $75.23.

TradingKey - As of the Asian session on July 8, WTI (USOIL) crude oil prices rose to around $72, rebounding significantly from the previous few trading days. On the technical side, oil prices had previously fallen below $70 due to expectations of US-Iran negotiations, the resumption of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, and pressure from OPEC+ production increases. However, as the incident of vessel attacks in the Strait of Hormuz escalated, and the US resumed military actions and sanctions against Iran, the market quickly priced back in the Middle East supply risk premium, driving a continuous rebound in WTI.

TradingKey - International crude oil markets reacted swiftly following a new round of offensive strikes launched by the U.S. military against Iran, with both WTI (USOIL) and Brent crude rising. The U.S. Central Command stated that the operation was in response to Iran's recent attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. The targets of the strikes included Iranian air defense systems, command and control networks, coastal radar, and anti-ship missile capabilities, while several Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps small boats were also destroyed in the relevant waters.

TradingKey - On July 7, Eastern Time, following Iran's attacks on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. Department of the Treasury published a document on its official website revoking general licenses related to Iran. This will phase out the authorizations for the production, delivery, and sale of Iranian crude oil, petrochemical products, and petroleum products issued on June 21, 2026. The two major crude oil futures strengthened in the short term. As of press time, WTI crude rose 5.25% to $72.15, while Brent crude oil futures gained 5.7% to $76.14.

TradingKey - On July 7, Eastern Time, geopolitical tensions escalated once again, with two consecutive military conflicts triggering a rebound in oil prices. Following Iran's firing of at least two missiles at several commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, Ukraine launched a drone attack on Russia's largest oil refinery. These successive military conflicts have shattered the recently eased geopolitical environment. Impacted by the two conflicts, both major crude oil futures rose across the board. As of press time, WTI crude oil futures were up 2.49% at $70.26, while Brent crude oil futures gained 2.7% to trade at $74.

TradingKey - As the temporary ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran takes effect and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz gradually resumes, the global crude oil market is undergoing a dramatic reversal. The narrative of supply shortages, once strained by geopolitical conflicts, has faded, replaced by concerns over a potential supply glut. OPEC+ is facing unprecedented policy challenges as it struggles to find a balance between recovering production and price stability.

TradingKey - During the Asian session on July 6, WTI (USOIL) crude oil prices extended their rebound from last Friday, surging to an intraday high of $69.26 before consolidating around $68.60. From a technical perspective, oil prices are recovering after previously falling to a near four-month low. However, the strength of this rebound remains limited, primarily due to the resumption of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and OPEC's production increase measures.

Tradingkey - On July 3, Eastern Time, the U.S. stock market is closed today in observance of the Independence Day holiday. Trading for precious metals, energy, foreign exchange, U.S. Treasury, and equity index futures contracts under the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) ended early at 13:00 Eastern Time. Trading for Brent crude oil futures contracts under the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) ended early at 13:30 Eastern Time. Currently, the two major crude oil futures are trading flat, with prices hovering around $68. The overall market has entered a phase of cooling down. The core driver of the market adjustment stems from the narrowing of risk premiums led by the rapid easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, as well as the recovery of supply-side expectations driven by the gradual restoration of global energy transit channels. The market is still awaiting the next catalyst.

TradingKey - As of the European trading session on July 2, WTI (USOIL) crude oil prices fluctuated weakly around $68, extending the previous downward trend. From a technical perspective, against the backdrop of easing US-Iran tensions, WTI crude oil prices have continued to decline, briefly breaking through the $68 mark today to touch a low of $67.45, marking a new low since March this year.

TradingKey - As the temporary US-Iran peace agreement took effect and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz gradually returned to normal, international crude oil prices plunged nearly 30% in the second quarter, recording the largest single-quarter decline since 2020, following a first-quarter surge triggered by geopolitical conflicts.

TradingKey - On June 29, Eastern Time, clear divergences emerged in the statements from both sides regarding whether the US and Iran would hold talks in Doha on the 30th.

TradingKey - As of the European session on June 29, WTI crude oil (USOIL) prices fluctuated and weakened near $70.00. From the market perspective, oil prices opened slightly higher due to the renewed exchange of fire between the US and Iran, but subsequently weakened again as tensions eased.

TradingKey - Vessel transit has resumed through the Strait of Hormuz, significantly cooling concerns over crude oil supply disruptions in the Persian Gulf. Catalyzed by the easing of geopolitical risks, international oil prices have retreated to a four-month low, with the previously accumulated geopolitical risk premium rapidly unwinding. The latest reports indicate that Saudi Arabia is increasing its crude oil shipments while boosting loading volumes at its Red Sea ports. Reportedly, the Port of Ras Tanura, which was shut down due to conflict, has restarted crude oil loading operations, with Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) docking to load cargo—marking the port's first return to normal operations since March. Meanwhile, the Port of Yanbu on the Red Sea remains highly active, with all seven of its crude oil berths operating at full capacity for the first time, driving a continuous month-on-month increase in export volumes.

TradingKey - On June 25, Eastern Time, senior Iraqi oil officials pressured OPEC, demanding a significant increase in the country's production quota, warning that they would otherwise be "forced to consider all available options." Sources revealed that while Iraqi officials had seriously considered withdrawing from OPEC, the current plan is to remain within the organization and push for a higher quota.