Gold Price Forecast: US Inflation Expected to Slow, October CPI May Support Gold Breaking Above $4,200

Based on market expectations, the U.S. headline CPI for October is projected to rise 0.3% month-over-month, noticeably below September's 0.6%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, is expected to increase 0.2% month-over-month, down from 0.3% in September. The market anticipates that U.S. inflation will moderate, with declining gasoline prices serving as the primary driver behind the slowdown.

Notably, as price data for October could not be fully collected during the 2025 U.S. government shutdown, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has confirmed that this report will not provide year-over-year increases for either headline or core CPI.

Earlier, U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000 in October, significantly beating market expectations, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, indicating that the labor market remains resilient. The strong employment data has diminished the need for the Federal Reserve to pivot toward policy easing in the near term. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in an 84% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed in December.

However, the recent sharp decline in international oil prices has provided some support for gold. As diplomatic progress was made in resumed U.S.-Iran talks, market concerns over Middle East crude supply disruptions eased, sending Brent crude tumbling nearly 6% on Monday. Retreating energy prices help curb future inflationary pressures, thereby softening market concerns about further Federal Reserve rate hikes. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields retreated, helping propel gold prices back above $4,100.

Today's upcoming CPI release could further shape market expectations regarding a December rate hike by the Federal Reserve. If both headline and core CPI come in below expectations, particularly if core CPI falls to around 0.1% month-over-month, the market may lower rate-hike probabilities, weighing on the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields and creating conditions for a further rebound in gold.

Conversely, if core CPI rises by 0.3% month-over-month or higher, indicating that underlying U.S. inflationary pressures remain elevated, the market may further reinforce expectations for a December rate hike. In that scenario, the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields could rebound, exerting downward pressure on gold prices.

Gold price daily chart, Source: TradingView

Looking at gold's daily chart, as gold surged on Monday and closed firmly above $4,100, its short-term bullish structure has noticeably improved, further opening up upside potential, with the next target poised to test the $4,200 mark.

Meanwhile, both the 5-day and 10-day moving averages have turned upward, and the 5-day moving average has crossed above the 10-day and 20-day moving averages to form a golden cross pattern, further reinforcing short-term bullish momentum and suggesting gold may extend its gains in the near term.

Currently, the primary resistance level to watch above is $4,150. If this level is breached, gold will test the $4,200-$4,230 range, and if gold can break through and hold firmly above $4,230, it will further open upside room toward the $4,300 mark.

On the downside, the primary support zone to watch below is the $4,100-$4,085 range. If gold falls below $4,085, it may continue downward to test the $4,050-$4,030 range, and a break below $4,030 would warrant attention to the $4,000 mark.

This content was translated using AI and reviewed for clarity. It is for informational purposes only.