Analysis

Tradingkey - On July 16, spot gold prices declined as US Treasury yields climbed and oil prices resumed their rally amid escalating tensions between the US and Iran. Following a US strike against Iran in retaliation for attacks on merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz, the armed conflict has intensified. Iran responded forcefully, warning that it would close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if the US attacks its power infrastructure. In an interview on Tuesday night, Trump reportedly stated that the US military would launch strikes on Iran's critical infrastructure next week if no diplomatic breakthrough is achieved.

TradingKey - As of the Asian trading session on July 15, gold (XAUUSD) prices retraced to oscillate near $4,030, erasing nearly all the gains driven by yesterday’s favorable CPI data. From a technical perspective, gold was bolstered yesterday by the cooling U.S. June CPI, rebounding quickly to test the $4,100 level. However, bulls failed to sustain the momentum today, reflecting intense competition between long and short positions at current levels.

TradingKey - As of the Asian session on July 14, gold (XAUUSD) prices fluctuated and consolidated around the $4,000 level, briefly dipping below $4,000 to a low of $3,983.23. From a market perspective, gold prices plummeted 2.87% yesterday due to the escalation of the Strait of Hormuz crisis, falling to $3,986.64 intraday. However, the closing price remained steady above $4,000 at $4,001.01, indicating that the $4,000 mark has become a key battleground for bulls and bears. Investors should focus on the U.S. June CPI data today.

TradingKey - On July 13, Eastern Time, spot gold fell by more than 2%, trading at [price] as of press time. According to reports, U.S. President Trump stated on social media: "We are going to take over the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran has nothing." Specifically, President Trump stated that the Strait of Hormuz is open and will remain open with or without Iran. He announced the resumption of the "Blockade Iran" operation, so named because it only prevents Iranian vessels or customers from entering or exiting. All other countries will have fair and open use of the strait. From now on, the United States will be known as the "Guardian of the Strait of Hormuz." As the guardian, and based on the principle of fairness, the U.S. will charge a 20% fee on all cargo shipments to compensate for all costs required to provide safety and security for this volatile region of the world. Relevant procedures and organizational work will commence immediately. Thank you for your attention to this matter!

TradingKey - As of the Asian session on July 9, gold prices (XAUUSD) maintained a range-bound and weak trend around $2,406, following three consecutive trading days of declines. From a technical perspective, gold prices remain under pressure due to the deteriorating situation between the US and Iran

Macroeconomic events have heightened rate hike expectations, pushing spot gold down once again toward the $4,000 threshold. The June CPI release next Tuesday is set to become a watershed moment for bulls and bears.

TradingKey - The gold you hold has been quietly mispriced for thirty years. Here's the mechanism behind it — and why it's finally breaking down.

TradingKey - During the Asian session on July 7, gold prices (XAUUSD) fluctuated downward, holding near $2,414. From a technical perspective, gold rebounded for four consecutive trading days and touched the $2,420 resistance level yesterday. This triggered short-term long profit-taking, causing gold prices to pull back for two consecutive trading sessions.

TradingKey - Before the market opened on July 6, Eastern Time, as the U.S. stock market was closed last Friday for the Independence Day holiday, investors turned more to commodities, foreign exchange, and crypto assets for signals of shifts in risk appetite.

TradingKey - As of the Asian session on July 3, silver (XAGUSD) prices extended the post-nonfarm payrolls rebound sentiment from yesterday, climbing back above $62. Technical analysis indicates that silver may continue to rally, with prospects of testing the $70 mark.

TradingKey - As of the Asian session on July 3, gold prices (XAUUSD) extended yesterday's rally, hitting an intraday high of $4,195.52. From a market perspective, gold prices have surged by a cumulative total of over $100 since the release of yesterday's non-farm payrolls data, indicating that marke

TradingKey - As of the Asian session on July 2, gold prices (XAUUSD) fluctuated around $4,050, continuing to strengthen slightly from yesterday. From a technical perspective, gold prices dipped to $3,959.64 on Wednesday but still closed firmly above the $4,000 level, indicating that significant bargain-hunting buyers near $4,000 are supporting the metal. The primary factors driving the recent recovery and rebound in gold prices are twofold: on one hand, remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh on Wednesday eased market concerns over further rate hikes; on the other hand, Trump's statement that US-Iran talks have commenced has further cooled Middle East tensions, driving gold prices higher.

TradingKey - On July 1, Eastern Time, gold (XAUUSD) surged past $4,100 at one point, reclaiming a near one-week high. As of press time, it was up 2.27% to trade at $4,098 per ounce. Newly appointed Fed Chairman Warsh stated on Wednesday that both inflation expectations and inflation risks have declined in recent weeks.

TradingKey - As of today's (July 1) early Asian session, gold (XAUUSD) prices maintained a weak intraday decline. After consolidating above $4,000 at yesterday's close, the gold price broke below $4,000 again today, indicating that market sentiment leans bearish amid instability in the US-Iran situation.

TradingKey - As of the Asian trading session today (June 30), gold (XAUUSD) extended its recent downward trend, with intraday prices briefly falling below $4,000 to hit a new year-to-date low of $3,942.50. The primary reasons for today's decline in gold are: uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran situation has heightened inflation expectations, while the non-farm payrolls data to be released this Thursday may reduce market liquidity, further putting pressure on the upward movement of gold prices.

TradingKey - Heading into the second half of 2026, the gold market has transitioned from a strong performer early in the year to an asset undergoing a high-level correction. Recently, gold prices fell below the $4,000 threshold for the first time since November 2025, down approximately 29% from the all-time high of $5,597.91 reached in January. On the surface, gold seems to have entered a period of distinct weakness. However, looking at the full-year horizon, can gold still rise in 2026? The answer is that while short-term pressure persists, there are still opportunities for a medium-term recovery, and the long-term bullish thesis remains intact.

TradingKey - Under the hawkish pivot of the new Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh, the trading logic for gold has undergone a consequential shift, with several mainstream Wall Street investment banks collectively downgrading their gold price forecasts. Recently, spot gold briefly broke below the $4,000 threshold, hitting a low of $3,959.49. Goldman Sachs lowered its year-end gold target to $4,900, while Deutsche Bank estimated that gold prices could drop to as low as $3,800 under an extreme scenario.

TradingKey - The countdown has begun for the U.S. copper tariff decision. The U.S. Department of Commerce must submit its "Section 232" investigation report to the White House by June 30 to ultimately decide whether to impose import tariffs on refined copper.

TradingKey - As of today (June 26) during the Asian session, gold (XAUUSD) prices fluctuated around $4,010. Yesterday, gold rebounded briefly following the release of the PCE data, with market sentiment improving significantly compared to before the release. However, from an overall structural perspective, gold has not yet fully shaken off its weak setup. Although the PCE data did not deteriorate further beyond expectations, triggering short-term short-covering, US inflation remains significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Expectations of future Fed rate hikes persist, limiting the upside potential for gold's rebound.

TradingKey - As of the Asian session today (June 25), gold (XAUUSD) was trading at $3,976.90, down 0.54% intraday. Following yesterday's drop below $4,000, gold prices fluctuated near $3,980 today, indicating that the market is awaiting further catalytic signals to determine its short-term direction. Notably, the U.S. May PCE data is scheduled to be released today.