Analysis

TradingKey - The US labor market presented a mixed picture in November 2025. On the one hand, non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000, slightly exceeding market expectations of 50,000 and ending the significant negative growth of the previous month.

TradingKey - As the selection for the next Federal Reserve Chairman enters a critical stage, Kevin Hassett, once widely considered a shoo-in leading candidate, has seen his advantage narrow significantly.

TradingKey - The U.S. economy will likely maintain a divergent pattern of weak employment but robust growth in 2026...Therefore, the Fed is highly likely to scale up the magnitude of rate reductions in 2026.

TradingKey – The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points on December 10, US Eastern Time, as widely anticipated, with the resolution passing by a 9-3 vote.

TradingKey - The Federal Reserve is likely to halt its rate-cutting cycle before the end of Q2 2026...The magnitude of rate cuts in Q3 and Q4 2026 is expected to far exceed current market expectations...U.S. equities are highly likely to follow a "bearish-then-bullish" trajectory throughout 2026.

TradingKey - Global monetary policy is poised for a rare "reverse script" by the end of 2025. While the Federal Reserve nears its third interest rate cut for the year and is widely expected to continue easing into next, major economies in Europe, Australia, and Japan are concurrently signaling inter

TradingKey - Japan, an economy with government debt surpassing 250% of GDP, stands at the precipice where policy contradictions threaten market collapse.

TradingKey - Kevin Hassett, White House National Economic Council Director, is poised to succeed Jerome Powell as the next Federal Reserve Chair. This development signals a potentially more dovish monetary policy. Beyond Wall Street's focus on this outlook, the Fed's independence is also under

Why would Hassett be the best choice for US stocks and the US dollar if he were to become the Federal Reserve Chairman?

TradingKey - If Kevin Hassett — the front-runner with a nomination probability exceeding 70% — is successfully appointed..., U.S. stocks are expected to continue hitting record highs, supported by a significantly accommodative monetary policy environment of interest rate cuts.

TradingKey - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly has voiced support for a rate cut at next month's Federal Reserve meeting, arguing that a sudden job market deterioration poses a greater and harder-to-manage risk than an inflation surge.

TradingKey - Currently, the market widely anticipates that the core PCE year-on-year growth rate for September will stand at 2.9%, and we expect the upcoming data to be slightly below this consensus forecast.

TradingKey - The delayed September Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and the ambiguous October NFP have already deepened divisions within the Fed amid a persistent data fog. Making the situation more acute, the December NFP report—released unexpectedly late, after the final Federal Open Market Committee

TradingKey - This paper conducts an analysis of the U.S. September nonfarm payroll data and the subsequent employment market through two scenario-based assessments, alongside a short-term and medium-to-long-term outlook for U.S. stocks.

This article analyzes the impending release of the Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes, highlighting divisions on monetary policy, recent rate cuts, and the potential impact on upcoming decisions. With 56% chance of maintaining rates, investor focus remains sharp.

TradingKey - Markets initially greeted the end of the longest U.S. government shutdown with relief—but it didn’t last.

TradingKey - The Eurozone real GDP grew by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter and 1.3% year-on-year in Q3. Under the impetus of economic recovery and the coordinated efforts of monetary and fiscal policies, we are optimistic about the performance of European equities over the next 12 months.

TradingKey - The longest US government shutdown on record is nearing its end, potentially providing the data-deprived Federal Reserve with the September nonfarm payrolls report as early as this week once federal operations resume. However, the October nonfarm data may be permanently lost. During the

TradingKey - After comprehensive consideration, our investment strategy is the "dual-drive of stocks and gold" — allocating to U.S. stocks and gold in a rotating manner at a fixed ratio.

TradingKey - Despite a broadly better-than-expected earnings season for U.S. equities, risk sentiment has shifted noticeably. On Tuesday, the market saw a sharp pullback—led by some of the very tech names that had been powering year-to-date gains.