WTI Crude Falls Below $70, Easing US-Iran Tensions Erode Risk Premium, Oil Prices May Drop to $60

From a fundamental perspective, the U.S.-Iran situation remains the core factor driving recent oil price movements.

Last weekend, renewed military clashes between the U.S. and Iran shattered previous market expectations of a continued de-escalation of Middle East tensions. The U.S. stated it launched strikes against Iran-linked military targets, citing Iranian violations of the ceasefire agreement and threats to shipping safety in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps subsequently announced retaliatory strikes against U.S. and allied targets in the Gulf region. With both sides trading blame for violating the ceasefire, the newly established temporary peace framework is once again under pressure.

Meanwhile, Trump warned on social media that if the U.S. restarts the war, Iran will cease to exist.

Affected by the worsening U.S.-Iran situation, WTI crude opened slightly higher today, briefly crossing above $70 in early trading, up about 1% from Friday's close. However, WTI crude failed to sustain its upward momentum and fluctuated around the $70 level during the day, as the U.S.-Iran situation subsequently showed signs of easing.

According to U.S. media outlet Axios, the U.S. and Iran have agreed to pause their recent exchanges of strikes and plan to resume talks concerning the Strait of Hormuz. The discussions are expected to focus primarily on the safe passage of commercial vessels, transit management arrangements, and the implementation of previous memorandums of understanding.

For the oil market, this means that while the weekend clashes reignited risk sentiment, they have not escalated into a full-scale conflict, keeping market fears of supply disruptions temporarily in check.

WTI Crude Oil Price Weekly Chart, Source: TradingView

Based on the WTI crude oil weekly chart, oil prices have fallen for three consecutive weeks. Extending their recent downward trend this Monday, prices briefly dipped below $70 intraday, indicating that overall market sentiment leans bearish.

Notably, although last week's close of $70.25 held above the $70 mark, it broke below both the SMA 60 and SMA 144 medium-to-long-term moving averages. This further reinforces the market's bearish momentum, suggesting that oil prices may continue to fall this week. The primary target will be to fill the previous gap down to around $67.30. If the downward trajectory persists, prices could slide toward $63.00, and potentially even test the key $60.00 level.

This content was translated using AI and reviewed for clarity. It is for informational purposes only.