Analysis

Tradingkey - Arab media reports that a draft agreement has been reached between the U.S. and Iran, causing the two major crude oil futures to plunge in the short term. WTI crude futures dropped by over 7% at one point to $89.65 per barrel, while Brent crude futures also fell by more than 7% to $93.2

TradingKey - International oil prices slumped on Monday after U.S. President Trump stated that U.S.-Iran negotiations are "essentially a done deal," with both Brent crude July futures and U.S. WTI crude futures falling more than 5%.

Tradingkey - Nearly three months since the outbreak of the Iran war, oil prices continue to fluctuate at high levels, with WTI crude futures hovering around $100 and Brent crude around $105. The primary reason for prices maintaining current levels is a market consensus: while the escalation in the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global supply, it has also suppressed demand, with the two forces offsetting each other to create a delicate dynamic balance. A recent Morgan Stanley report noted that although net exports from major Middle Eastern producers have declined, other producers—led by the U.S.—have significantly increased export supplies. Simultaneously, major importers like China have reduced their import volumes, collectively sustaining the current supply-demand equilibrium in the crude oil market.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price extends its losses for the third successive day, trading around $96.80 per barrel during the Asian hours on Friday. Crude oil prices decline as supply concerns ease amid growing optimism that the United States (US) and Iran could eventually reach an agreement.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $98.20 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. The WTI price edges lower after US President Donald Trump said talks with Iran are in the final stages.

TradingKey - With navigation through the Strait of Hormuz still failing to resume, energy-focused investment research firm HFI Research has issued a warning that the market landscape could face a major turning point in June. The firm pointed out that if the strait remains closed by the first week of June, global oil inventories falling to historic lows could trigger panic buying and stockpiling by various countries, at which point the market may descend into genuine chaos.

Tradingkey - Amid heightened market concerns that escalating conflict in Iran could trigger crude oil supply disruptions, U.S. President Trump suddenly announced on May 18 (ET) the postponement of a military strike against Iran originally scheduled for Tuesday, May 19. Trump stated on social media that, following a joint request from the leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, he has ordered the U.S. military not to proceed with the planned strike on the 19th. He noted that the U.S. and Iran are currently engaged in serious negotiations, and that the aforementioned Middle Eastern leaders believe the two sides will ultimately reach an agreement centered on the core provision that "Iran must not possess nuclear weapons."

Tradingkey - Geopolitical tensions escalated sharply over the weekend. Following the conclusion of Trump's visit to China, tensions between the U.S. and Iran flared up once again. Renewed expectations of a long-term blockade of the Strait of Hormuz pushed both major crude oil futures to nearly two-week highs. As of press time, Brent crude broke above the $110 mark, rising 1.80% to $111.45 per barrel, having touched its highest level since May 5 during intraday trading. WTI crude oil futures rose 2.39% to $103.41 per barrel.

TradingKey - WTI briefly above $100 on renewed US-Iran friction. Enbridge, XOM, CVX, LMT lead weekly gainers. Nvidia, AMD, Cisco set records. Warsh Fed era begins. S&P targets 7,500–8,000+.

TradingKey - Crude oil futures closed sharply higher on Friday, with weekly gains expanding significantly. A resurgence in geopolitical tensions dampened market expectations for a de-escalation agreement between the U.S. and Iran and the lifting of shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, driving energy prices rapidly higher.

Tradingkey - On April 13, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned in its monthly report that global crude oil inventories are shrinking at a record pace due to supply disruptions triggered by the Iran war, which could drive oil prices even higher. The report highlighted that, faced with unprecedented disruptions to Middle Eastern crude supplies, importing nations are depleting their oil stocks at record speeds. In April, the average daily reduction in global crude oil and refined product inventories neared 4 million barrels. This scale of depletion exceeds the combined consumption of the United Kingdom and Germany, significantly undermining the buffer capacity of nations to manage supply shocks.

TradingKey - The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently warned that global oil inventories are being depleted at a record pace. Should current conditions persist, oil prices could see a further sharp increase this summer. Morgan Stanley strategist Martijn Rats noted in a report on Monday that, in a worst-case scenario, Brent crude prices could surge to $130–$150 per barrel.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $95.70 during the early Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The WTI price edges higher amid renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

TradingKey - Bloomberg reports, citing Morgan Stanley (MS) analysts, that the global crude oil market is in a critical "race against time" phase, with the duration of any potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz becoming the core variable driving oil price trends.

Tradingkey - International oil prices surged during early Asian trading hours after U.S. President Trump and Iran rejected each other's latest responses to long-term peace proposals. Both major crude oil futures rose by over 3%, with WTI crude briefly hitting the $100 mark again. As of press time, WTI is up 3.79% at $99/bbl, while Brent crude has gained 3.29% to reach $104.62/bbl.

TradingKey — As the U.S.-Iran war continues, the "NACHO" trade has become the most prevalent play on Wall Street. NACHO, which stands for "Not A Chance Hormuz Opens," signifies the belief that the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen. Market analysis indicates that growing skepticism over a near-term en

TradingKey - On May 8 (ET), Citi stated that oil prices could rise further if US-Iran negotiations remain deadlocked, maintaining its forecast that Brent crude will reach $120 over the next three months.

TradingKey - Oil prices surge as US-Iran clashes resume following a brief de-escalation.

TradingKey - WTI crude oil futures settled at $96.21 per barrel on May 6, plummeting 6.3%. This marked the first close below the $100 level in six days and the largest single-day decline since March 17. Brent crude oil futures fell over 7.73% on the same day, intraday breaking below the $100 mark for the first time since April 22.

TradingKey - During pre-market trading on May 5, international crude oil losses widened. WTI crude oil futures briefly fell below $90, hitting a low of $88.71 for the first time since April 21, with losses reaching as much as 13.2%. Brent crude plummeted as much as 12%, hitting a low of $96.77.