Analysis

TradingKey - As of the Asian trading session on September 2, international oil prices rose sharply, with WTI crude (USOIL) reclaiming $90 and Brent crude (UKOIL) surging above $95 to hit a high of $97.04. Meanwhile, gold prices (XAUUSD) continued to slide, with spot gold dropping to around $4,300. The further escalation of the US-Iran conflict drove up energy prices and global bond yields, becoming the primary trading driver in the commodities market.

TradingKey - Direct clashes between the United States and Iran erupted again after more than a month, rapidly escalating shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz. During the Asian trading session on August 31, Brent crude (UKOIL) prices rebounded above $90, while WTI crude (USOIL) rose to $86 per barrel.

TradingKey - As of the Asian trading session on August 31, international oil prices surged, with Brent crude (UKOIL) breaking back above $90, while gold (XAUUSD) prices extended Friday's losses, briefly falling below $4,400 intraday. The main reason driving today's movements in oil and gold prices is the re-escalation of the US-Iran military conflict over the weekend, which has heightened market concerns regarding Middle East crude supply and the US inflation outlook.

TradingKey - As of the Asian trading session on August 26, WTI crude oil (USOIL) prices extended yesterday's decline, dropping to an intraday low of $80.26 and briefly approaching the $80 mark, down nearly 1% on the day. Earlier on Tuesday, WTI oil prices tumbled 4.58% to settle at $81.10, marking the lowest closing level since August 13. The recent sharp retreat from above $85 is primarily driven by renewed market bets on a diplomatic easing of U.S.-Iran tensions, which has heightened expectations for the resumption of greater crude oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

On August 25 (ET), international oil prices fell sharply, with both WTI and Brent crude dropping by more than 3%. Rich Privorotsky, head of Goldman Sachs' hedge fund business, noted in his latest client report that the importance of oil prices this week could very well surpass that of the Jackson Hole symposium. One of the market's current focal points is the U.S. Treasury's latest moves regarding sanctions on Iran.

Brent crude futures touched $93 per barrel, rising 1.41% on the day to hit a new high since July 24. Since August 5, Brent oil prices have gained over 20%. Currently, as renewed geopolitical tensions combine with accelerating global inventory drawdowns, market divergence over the trajectory of crude

TradingKey - On August 11, international crude oil prices surged before retreating. Driven by uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations and supply risks in the Strait of Hormuz, WTI crude (USOIL) briefly rose above $84 during intraday trading, while Brent crude (UKOIL) reached a high of $90. However, as Pakistan signaled that the US and Iran were "close to reaching some kind of arrangement," the market renewed bets on an easing of tensions, and oil prices subsequently pulled back significantly from their intraday highs.

TradingKey - International oil prices continued to rise on Monday as the market remains focused on navigation prospects in the Strait of Hormuz and developments in the Middle East. Brent crude oil futures (UKOIL-F) rose 2.65% to $84.38 per barrel, while WTI crude oil futures (USOIL-F) increased by 2.22% to $78.75 per barrel.

TradingKey - As of the Asian trading session on August 3, WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) prices plunged, breaking below the $80 level with an intraday decline of more than 9%, while Brent Crude Oil (UKOIL) fell by over 8% in tandem. Last week, the oil market was supported by supply disruption risks in the Middle East. However, prices retreated under pressure at this week’s opening following Trump’s statement on Saturday regarding the suspension of new military strikes against Iran, as well as the OPEC+ announcement to continue increasing production.

TradingKey - International oil prices fell sharply during Monday's Asian trading session. U.S. President Trump announced a suspension of new military actions against Iran and the restarting of negotiations regarding the nuclear issue and the Strait of Hormuz, significantly easing market concerns over Middle East crude oil supply disruptions. Meanwhile, OPEC+ decided to continue increasing its production target for September, further intensifying downward pressure on oil prices.

On July 28, ET, international crude oil prices fell further, marking the official entry of oil prices into a correction phase. Brent crude (UKOIL) saw losses widen to over 5%, while WTI crude (USOIL) dropped more than 4%, reflecting the market re-pricing the prospects of easing supply risks in the Middle East.

TradingKey - On July 27, international crude oil prices fell sharply, ending a previous strong rally driven by Middle East supply risks. As of the European session, Brent crude (UKOIL) fell over 13% to trade near $85.23 per barrel, while WTI crude (USOIL) declined more than 8% to around $83.08.

The escalating conflict between the U.S. and Iran has driven a unilateral rise in oil prices. WTI crude oil futures have returned to $90, while Brent crude oil futures have returned to $100, with both benchmarks reclaiming their early-June highs. Market focus is gradually shifting from the geopolitical event itself toward expectations regarding the duration of the conflict, a variable that is becoming the key factor influencing the direction of oil prices.

TradingKey - Driven by the continued escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, Brent crude (UKOIL) has surpassed the $100 per barrel mark again after two months, as concerns over global oil supply security rapidly intensify. Meanwhile, expanding energy transportation risks, tightening refinery supplies, and renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran are prompting investors to reassess the future trajectory of oil prices.

TradingKey - On July 23, international oil prices continued to rise sharply. WTI crude oil (USOIL) prices broke through the $90 mark intraday, gaining more than 4%, while Brent crude oil (UKOIL) rose to a high of $98.75, just a step away from the $100 threshold. Oil prices have now risen for five consecutive trading sessions, as market focus remains on the risk of disrupted crude oil transportation in the Middle East.

TradingKey - As tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate, the international crude oil market has once again come under intense pressure. Driven by rising geopolitical risks, global oil prices surged on the 22nd, with WTI crude futures (UKOIL-F) rising as much as 4.28% to $88.17 per barrel; Brent crude futures (USOIL-F) broke through $95 per barrel, returning to this level for the first time since June 11.

TradingKey - Goldman Sachs' (GS) global commodities research team released a new report stating that if the transportation of crude oil and refined products through the Strait of Hormuz faces sustained and severe disruptions, Brent crude (UKOIL) prices could rise above $120 per barrel by the fourth quarter of 2026. Goldman Sachs also emphasized that $120 is not its current baseline forecast, but rather an upside scenario based on conditions such as long-term restrictions on transit through the strait, a significant decline in crude oil exports from the Gulf region, and insufficient alternative transportation capacity.

TradingKey - As of the Asian session on July 20, Brent crude (UKOIL) opened higher and trended upward, attempting to breach the $90 mark intraday and reaching a high of $91.42. WTI crude (USOIL) similarly opened higher and moved upward, briefly touching the $84 level. This indicates a strengthening of international oil prices driven by the escalation of tensions between the U.S. and Iran over the weekend.

TradingKey - As of the early Asian session on July 20, international oil prices opened significantly higher, with WTI crude (USOIL) rising 2.21% to a high of $84.60, and Brent crude (UKOIL) climbing 2.27% to a high of $91.42. The jump in oil prices was primarily driven by the continued escalation of the conflict between the United States and Iran, as the market renewed concerns over Middle East supply disruptions and shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz.

Tradingkey - On July 17 (ET), as the conflict between the U.S. and Iran continued to escalate, the two major crude oil futures rose again, returning to price levels seen in mid-June. As of press time, WTI crude futures rose over 3% to $81.05, while Brent crude futures also gained more than 3% to $87.01. The confrontation between the two sides has intensified as the fragile ceasefire agreement signed by the U.S. and Iran last month shows further signs of breaking down.