Analysis

TradingKey - According to the latest reports, the second round of US-Iran negotiations remains inconclusive. The U.S. plans to dispatch negotiators to Pakistan this Saturday (April 25), but Iran has stated it has no intention of meeting directly with U.S. officials. Currently, Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff Asim Munir has held a meeting with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Islamabad.

TradingKey - Since the start of this week, the ongoing stalemate between the U.S. and Iran has fueled continued volatility in oil prices. Brent crude futures are currently trading near $107, up over 2% for the week, while WTI crude futures are around $97, down nearly 2%. Given persistent supply shor

TradingKey - As of the close on Wednesday, April 22 (ET), Brent crude oil futures settled at $101.91 per barrel, up 3.48%. WTI crude oil prices settled at $92.96 per barrel, up 3.67%.

TradingKey - On Wednesday, international oil prices fluctuated at high levels below $100 per barrel. Although U.S. President Trump announced an indefinite extension of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement in an attempt to create space for peace negotiations, the ongoing shipping blockade in the Strait of Hormuz continues to drive up the market's geopolitical risk premium.

JPMorgan (JPM) Head of Commodities Natasha Kaneva's latest analysis points out that under a scenario where the U.S. Navy implements a comprehensive export blockade, Iran would need to begin production cuts in about 16 days and cease production entirely within 30 days.

The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have caused the biggest oil supply disruption on record by daily output lost, though at least one earlier shock had a greater cumulative impact, according to Reuters calculations based on International Energy Agency and U.S. Depa

TradingKey - On April 21, during the early Asian trading session, crude oil futures continued their weak range-bound pattern. An increased inclination for profit-taking drove both major crude oil benchmarks lower, while the slight price pullback also reflected the market's cautious stance ahead of US-Iran negotiations. As of press time, WTI crude fell over 1% to $86.55, and Brent crude dropped 0.5% to $95.

TradingKey - Catalyzed by repeated closures of the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend and the re-escalation of Middle East tensions, compounded by the U.S. seizure of an Iranian merchant vessel and Iran firing on commercial ships, market expectations for a de-escalation in the Middle East have cooled significantly. Goldman Sachs stated that noticeably weak oil demand—particularly for petrochemical feedstocks and jet fuel—driven by high refined product prices and margins, could lead to further declines in oil prices.

TradingKey - Amid the sustained trend of high oil prices, the Trump administration, under pressure from rising costs, has discussed increasing production with several oil companies. However, as capacity expansion requires time and oil price appreciation is primarily driven by geopolitical risks, thi

TradingKey - Since the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have repeatedly recurred, causing crude oil prices to rise in tandem with news flow. Crude oil prices have become a "barometer" of geopolitical risk, serving as a typical case of a market where price volatility is driven by news. According to the latest media reports, two US officials stated that US and Iranian negotiators made progress during Tuesday's talks and are moving toward a framework agreement to end the conflict.

TradingKey - Since April, as the conflict in the Middle East has continued to escalate, the oil market has undergone a dramatic transformation: WTI crude has been repriced, not only matching the performance of the global benchmark Brent crude but also surpassing it during several trading sessions. O

TradingKey - On Sunday (April 13), Donald Trump announced that following the breakdown of U.S.-Iran negotiations, the U.S. Navy will implement a naval blockade on Iranian ports starting Monday.

Iran expects to restore most damaged refining and distribution facilities to 70–80% of their pre-attack capacity within one to two months, a senior oil official said, as authorities work to recover from a wave of strikes on energy infrastructure.

TradingKey – During Friday's Asian trading session, WTI crude oil prices continued to climb, with intraday gains extending to 2% as prices once again touched the key $100 per barrel psychological threshold. This move represents a renewed challenge to the $100 mark following a recent period of high-level volatility, signaling that the market's repricing of supply-demand dynamics and geopolitical risks is accelerating.

Oil prices rebounded following sudden complications in U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks, with WTI breaking above the $90 level.

TradingKey - On April 8 local time, the U.S. and Iran announced a temporary ceasefire agreement. However, just hours later, large-scale Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon brought the peace to the brink of collapse, prompting Iran to announce the closure of the Strait of Hormuz once again.

Easing tensions in the Middle East triggered a plunge of over 10% in crude oil prices, while the three major U.S. stock index futures and star tech stocks rallied broadly.

TradingKey - On April 7, Trump announced a suspension of hostilities, pausing bombing and attack operations against Iran for two weeks and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Impacted by the move, WTI crude oil prices plunged over 19% at one point, marking the largest single-day decline in nearly six ye

TradingKey - The core driver of this round of oil price declines is not a sudden weakening of supply and demand data, but rather a swift correction of the market's worst-case expectations for the Middle East situation.

TradingKey - On April 6, Donald Trump addressed the Iran issue, stating he could "control the entire country overnight" and indicated this could occur as early as tomorrow night (April 7). He set a deadline of 20:00 ET on April 7 for ceasefire negotiations. He stated that if no agreement is reached