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TradingKey - On June 26, Eastern Time, investment sentiment surrounding the AI rally in US stocks shifted, though this anomaly was not apparent at the index level. The three major US indices closed flat today, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.03% to 51,903.34 points, the Nasdaq Composite down 0.01% to 25,356.26 points, and the S&P 500 up 0.09% to 7,363.84 points. However, at the sector level, weighed down by mounting concerns over the rising costs of artificial intelligence infrastructure, previously strong AI infrastructure stocks stumbled today, with both memory and chip stocks declining.

At the inaugural FOMC meeting chaired by the newly appointed Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, the median dot plot shifted directly from rate-cut expectations to rate-hike expectations. Interest rate futures immediately priced in a roughly 70% probability of a rate hike in September, plunging the market into a rate-hike panic. This article argues that the market is highly likely overestimating the intensity of this rate-hike cycle. Even if rate hikes do resume in September, the move would fundamentally represent a robust tightening characterized by "withdrawing insurance rate cuts against the backdrop of a still-resilient economy," which is fundamentally different from the panic-driven tightening of 2022. For long-term investors in US equities, this shift presents opportunities that outweigh the risks. However, this assessment is conditional and must be dynamically adjusted using three indicators as anchors: core inflation, long-term inflation expectations, and the unemployment rate.

TradingKey - As an AI super-unicorn with a valuation approaching $1 trillion, Anthropic's IPO process has constantly commanded the attention of global capital markets. In the public market, are there other avenues to capture the spillover opportunities arising from Claude's valuation upside? Can investors indirectly share the dividends of this technological revolution by investing in other segments of the AI industry chain?

TradingKey - On June 8, Eastern Time, OpenAI, the parent company of ChatGPT, officially filed for a confidential IPO with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), becoming the second AI super unicorn to pursue a listing after Anthropic. Leveraging approximately 900 million weekly active users and its rapidly expanding enterprise business, OpenAI is expected to debut on the capital markets with a valuation approaching $1 trillion.

TradingKey - Over the past year, AI chips, cloud computing, data centers, and a handful of tech giants have propelled the Nasdaq and S&P 500 to continuous gains and repeated record highs. However, as an increasing amount of capital concentrates on the same AI narrative, the U.S. stock market has begun to exhibit typical bubble-like characteristics: high valuations, crowded trades, rising market concentration, and rapid capital expenditure expansion, while actual commercial returns still require time to be validated. Once the market begins to question the return on AI investment, index-level corrections could be more severe than typical sector rotations.

Tradingkey - The U.S. aerospace industry suffered a major setback as space sector stocks came under broad pressure, with AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) tumbling 14.57%. According to media reports, Blue Origin’s New Glenn uncrewed rocket experienced a catastrophic explosion on the launch pad at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station on Thursday night, causing severe damage to the company’s only launch facility.

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