Analysis

TradingKey - The United States is set to release its latest GDP and PCE data on 30–31 July 2025, with the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision expected concurrently. Market consensus anticipates that the annualized real GDP growth rate for the second quarter will turn positive

TradingKey - On Tuesday, July 15, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the June 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI). After four consecutive months of inflation coming in below expectations, Wall Street is now bracing for a potential upside surprise — with tariffs finally starting to show up

TradingKey - On Friday, June 27, the U.S. will release Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for May, widely regarded as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge and a key reference for FOMC officials in assessing inflation trends and shaping monetary policy decisions.

TradingKey - The situation in the Middle East has deteriorated. Last week, the three major US stock indexes all recorded declines. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.32%, the S&P fell 0.39%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.63%, ending two consecutive weekly gains. This week is a super central bank week.

LONDON, April 17 (Reuters) - Traders saw the all-clear on Thursday from the European Central Bank to bet on even steeper interest rate cuts ahead, confident the central bank will ease policy further if trade tensions dent a fragile economy.

April 10 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer prices unexpectedly fell in March, but inflation risks are tilted to the upside after President Donald Trump doubled down on tariffs on imported Chinese goods even as he lowered duties on other nations.The consumer price index dipped 0.1% last month after gaining 0

The Trump administration’s recent imposition of a 104% tariff on China and "reciprocal" tariffs on other nations has triggered significant volatility in global financial markets. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields have fluctuated sharply, reflecting uncertainty about economic growth and policy...

TradingKey - On 10 April 2025, the United States will release its Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March. Market consensus forecasts suggest that the year-over-year (YoY) increases for headline CPI and core CPI will reach 2.6% and 3.0%, respectively, down from the prior readings of 2.8% and 3.1%.

The February Fed meeting was held and Trump also expressed his willingness to negotiate tariffs. Currently, the market is focusing on the PCE inflation data released on Friday , but in fact, how Trump implements his "reciprocal tariff" plan is what investors need to pay most attention to.

TOKYO, March 24 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan's meeting last week passed with no surprises, but for a careful BOJ watcher its message on the need to remain vigilant on food-driven inflationary pressures had an important takeaway: Rates could be raised sooner than expected.

On 12 March 2025, the United States will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February. Market consensus predicts that the year-over-year growth rates for Headline CPI and Core CPI will reach 2.9% and 3.2%, respectively, both lower than the previous figures of 3.0% and 3.3%.

Given the slowdown in PCE—one of the Federal Reserve’s most closely watched metrics—and early signs of economic weakening, we expect the central bank to cut interest rates 3-4 times by the end of this year, significantly more than the two cuts currently priced into market expectations.

Traders who bet on the future course of inflation foresee the sharpest divergence for three years between the U.S. and euro zone, driven by different growth paths, tariff threats and cheaper European energy after a potential Ukraine peace deal.

Policymakers around the world may not like the word 'stagflation,' but they're going to hear a lot more it this year if the import tariffs U.S. President Donald Trump is threatening open up a global trade war.

TradingKey - The FOMC’s top concerns remain inflation and employment. The January CPI report shows inflation diverging from the Fed’s 2% target, while Thursday’s PPI also climbed steadily, reinforcing the upward trend in prices. Recent job data suggests the labor market does not appear to need furth

In a world where information, money and asset prices move faster than at any time in history, one key element of financial markets remains resolutely resistant to change: forecasting.

Ahead of the release of the US January CPI report, inflation expectation surveys from the University of Michigan and the New York Fed have shown a rare divergence. With the escalation of Trump's tariffs, the trajectory of US inflation has garnered significant attention.

Fed’s preferred measure of inflation is the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index and it usually comes out at the end of the following month. So, December 2024’s PCE figure is being released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) next Friday (31 January) before the market opens.

The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras said on Wednesday that the Eurozone is on the cusp of sustainably reaching 2% inflation, putting the onus on officials to avoid undershooting that goal, per Bloomberg.

Yuzo Kano,  founder and CEO of leading Japan-based exchange Bitflyer, says that Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) could lead to all kinds of economic and societal ills, including runaway inflation and loss of faith in money.