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UK: Local vote risk for Starmer – Societe Generale
Societe Generale economists flag rising political risk around Prime Minister Keir Starmer ahead of 7 May local elections. A weak result could trigger a leadership challenge, though the lack of a clear successor may delay moves until the September conference.Fxstreet
Mon, May 4
EUR/CHF: Short-term bounce, longer-term decline – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister expects EUR/CHF to rise in coming months as the Euro (EUR) recovers and markets push back Swiss National Bank (SNB) rate hikes, with the bank’s strategy combining verbal intervention and steady rates.
Fxstreet
Mon, May 4
Euro area: Weak confidence clouds activity outlook – Societe Generale
Societe Generale economists note that firm and consumer confidence fell more than expected in April, with Commission indices at multi‑year lows. Despite slightly positive 1Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP), domestic demand appears subdued and credit conditions are tightening.Fxstreet
Mon, May 4
ECB: June leaning shapes Euro outlook – BNY
BNY’s Bob Savage highlights that the European Central Bank (ECB) is now clearly leaning toward a June rate move, contrasting with the Bank of England's (BoE) preference to wait for fuller confirmation. He sees this directional guidance as a break from the prior “policy in a good place” stance.Fxstreet
Mon, May 4
ECB's Villeroy: Critical mass of data needed before tightening policy
In his annual letter to French President Emmanuel Macron on the state of the economy on Monday, European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau argued that the ECB needs gather a "critical mass of data" suggesting that inflation is becoming entrenched before tightening the policyFxstreet
Mon, May 4
BoE: Expected to on prolonged hold – Societe Generale
Societe Generale economists report that the Bank of England's (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left Bank Rate at 3.75% with an 8–1 vote. Their base case is for rates to remain unchanged through 2026, though further hikes of 50–75 bps are possible if the US‑Iran conflict persists.Fxstreet
Mon, May 4
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