USD/CZK

BNY Mellon’s Geoff Yu notes that Central and Eastern European (CEE) assets have underperformed in October, with CE3 FX (Polish Zloty, Czech Koruna and Hungarian Forint) carry versus EUR and USD lagging cash returns and reflecting markets’ belief that CEE central banks cannot match European Central B

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose expects the MNB to keep its base rate at 5.50% and argues that Hungary’s recovering real economy and re‑accelerating seasonally adjusted inflation momentum do not justify easing.

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky highlights Hungary’s draft budget as key for regional bonds, with much optimism already priced on a deficit below 5% of GDP. He expects the National Bank of Hungary to keep rates at 5.50%, the Central Bank of Turkey to resume cuts to 36.00%, and EUR/RON to stabilise around 5.340, while another Czech rate hike is seen in November.

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky argues recent Central and Eastern European (CEE) FX and rates gains may not last. Czech inflation data show core rising to 3.1%, reinforcing expectations for a Czech National Bank (CNB) rate hike in November unless geopolitics improve.

ING strategist Frantisek Taborsky expects the NBP to delay rate hikes until early 2027, with government fuel-price measures allowing policymakers to remain patient. He sees the EUR/PLN trading range shifting higher to 4.380–4.400 amid a strong US Dollar, rising energy prices and risk aversion.

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky highlights pressure on the Polish Zloty and Romanian Leu. With the National Bank of Poland holding rates at 3.75%, a dovish policy message could push EUR/PLN towards 4.380–4.400.