USD/CZK

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky highlights pressure on the Polish Zloty and Romanian Leu. With the National Bank of Poland holding rates at 3.75%, a dovish policy message could push EUR/PLN towards 4.380–4.400.

Standard Chartered’s Saabir Salad now expects the Czech National Bank to deliver two additional 25bps hikes, in November 2026 and Q1-2027, after a pre-emptive move in June. This would lift cumulative tightening to 75bps and the policy rate to 4.25% by end-Q1-2027.

Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux flags that a surprise upside in Czech inflation to 2.5% has reinforced the Czech National Bank’s hawkish stance. With policymakers signalling a possible hold or hike, attention turns to core and services inflation data that could justify a November rate increase.

Societe Generale strategists expect a hawkish hold from Poland’s National Bank of Poland (NBP) at 3.75% and no change from Romania’s central bank NBR at 6.50%, as inflation and political uncertainty constrain policy flexibility.

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky expects higher September inflation across Czech Republic and Hungary, with Czech data seen backing a November rate hike. He forecasts unchanged policy in Poland and Romania, maintains a bearish regional FX bias, and favours the Czech koruna, which he sees as less tied to global narratives and likely to outperform more dovish CEE currencies.

Societe Generale notes Central and Eastern European (CEE) currencies, including the Hungarian Forint (HUF), are set to weaken about 3% against the Euro (EUR) this week as EUR/USD falls below 1.14.