EUR/CZK

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose argues that Czech government moves on public media funding risk elevating political tensions and, over time, the Czech koruna’s risk premium.

Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux flags that a surprise upside in Czech inflation to 2.5% has reinforced the Czech National Bank’s hawkish stance. With policymakers signalling a possible hold or hike, attention turns to core and services inflation data that could justify a November rate increase.

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky notes that the Czech National Bank (CNB) kept its policy rate at 3.75% with a dovish tone versus market pricing, but ING economists now expect a hike in November due to higher inflation forecasts and elevated global energy prices.

Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister expects the Czech National Bank (CNB) to keep rates unchanged today, in line with Bloomberg consensus and market pricing. Despite firmer inflation, officials still see policy as sufficiently restrictive, with a hint of future hikes.

ING strategist Frantisek Taborsky outlines a busy Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) data calendar but stresses that the Czech National Bank (CNB) meeting is the key event. He expects rates to stay at 3.75% with dovish guidance, contrasting with still-hawkish market pricing.

ING analysts David Havrlant and Frantisek Taborsky say the Czech market is being driven mainly by global factors and high energy prices, but EUR/CZK still reacts to Czech National Bank (CNB) meetings and guidance.