Today
+5.71%
5 Days
-1.69%
1 Month
-10.89%
6 Months
-23.57%
Year to Date
-22.88%
1 Year
-24.23%
TradingKey - On June 26, Eastern Time, investment sentiment surrounding the AI rally in US stocks shifted, though this anomaly was not apparent at the index level. The three major US indices closed flat today, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.03% to 51,903.34 points, the Nasdaq Composite down 0.01% to 25,356.26 points, and the S&P 500 up 0.09% to 7,363.84 points. However, at the sector level, weighed down by mounting concerns over the rising costs of artificial intelligence infrastructure, previously strong AI infrastructure stocks stumbled today, with both memory and chip stocks declining.

TradingKey - As of the close on June 25, Eastern Time, Microsoft (MSFT) shares extended their recent intraday downward trend, closing down 3.46% at $352.83. Since the start of June, Microsoft's stock has steadily declined, racking up a cumulative drop of 21.64%, which indicates that investor sentiment has turned bearish. Furthermore, as the stock price broke below its March low, market bearishness was further amplified. Today, the stock rose slightly by 1% in pre-market trading, suggesting some downside support.

Japanese and South Korean stock markets opened lower and extended losses, with the KOSPI and Nikkei 225 indices falling around 3%, while Kioxia, SK Hynix, and Samsung Electronics plunged collectively.

At the inaugural FOMC meeting chaired by the newly appointed Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, the median dot plot shifted directly from rate-cut expectations to rate-hike expectations. Interest rate futures immediately priced in a roughly 70% probability of a rate hike in September, plunging the market into a rate-hike panic. This article argues that the market is highly likely overestimating the intensity of this rate-hike cycle. Even if rate hikes do resume in September, the move would fundamentally represent a robust tightening characterized by "withdrawing insurance rate cuts against the backdrop of a still-resilient economy," which is fundamentally different from the panic-driven tightening of 2022. For long-term investors in US equities, this shift presents opportunities that outweigh the risks. However, this assessment is conditional and must be dynamically adjusted using three indicators as anchors: core inflation, long-term inflation expectations, and the unemployment rate.

TradingKey - On June 24, Eastern Time, Qualcomm (QCOM) sent a major signal at its Investor Day: the company projects that its data center chip sales will exceed $15 billion by 2029, with revenue from the segment expected to reach $5 billion by fiscal year 2027. Meanwhile, Meta (META) will adopt its Dragonfly C1000 data center CPU, and Microsoft (MSFT) will deploy its HBC chips, marking Qualcomm's official entry into the AI data center market. Following the announcement, Qualcomm shares surged over 12% in after-hours trading.

TradingKey - On June 24, Eastern Time, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed mixed as the market continued to digest high AI valuations, capital expenditure pressures on tech giants, and expectations of another Federal Reserve rate hike this year. A sharp decline in oil prices eased inflation co

Popular Instruments