Analysis

TradingKey - Trump announced that the U.S. will take control of the Strait of Hormuz and collect "tolls," which, combined with a plunge in the South Korean stock market, dampened market sentiment. The three major indices fell across the board, with SpaceX and SK Hynix ADRs dropping close to their offering prices. Memory stocks slumped, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell more than 5%. At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.26% to 52,498.64; the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 1.55% to 25,873.18; and the S&P 500 Index fell 0.79% to 7,515.34.

TradingKey - The two major crude oil futures benchmarks surged nearly 10%. As of writing, WTI crude rose 9.22% to $78.09, and Brent crude rose 9.39% to $83.15. Reportedly, the U.S. Navy-led Combined Maritime Information Center stated that the U.S. military will begin implementing a maritime blockade of all Iranian ports and coastal areas starting at 20:00 GMT on July 14. The blockade applies to all vessels, regardless of their flag, and covers the entire Iranian coastline, including but not limited to all Iranian ports and oil terminals. The blockade will not impede the transit of neutral vessels through the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian destinations. Shipments of humanitarian supplies will be permitted, subject to inspection.

Tradingkey - On Monday, SpaceX (SPCX) fell more than 5% intraday to a low of $137.5, nearing its $135 offering price. The stock has declined nearly 40% from its June 16 peak of $225.64. Following Apple's recent lawsuit against OpenAI, SpaceX founder Elon Musk and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman traded barbs on social media. Musk first posted on the X platform, addressing Altman by saying, "After stealing an open-source AI charity, now you've stolen Apple's mobile technology! What are you going to do next?" Altman retorted by mocking Musk, saying, "You're the one actually peddling a short-term space data center concept to public market investors."

TradingKey — Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller’s latest remarks sent a clear hawkish signal, stating that if core inflation remains elevated, the Fed does not rule out tightening monetary policy in the near term, directly disrupting previous market expectations of a policy pivot toward rate cuts. Waller stated that if subsequent economic data shows inflation remains significantly above the 2% policy target, the Fed may need to implement further rate hikes in the short term, noting that monetary policy is currently at a critical "crossroads." He pointed out that the policy direction will be determined by the latest economic data, such as the CPI report to be released on Tuesday. While he does not advocate for hiking rates prematurely to avoid triggering a recession, he emphasized that the labor market is currently stable and the Fed must avoid repeating its mistake from several years ago—reacting too slowly as price pressures intensified.

Tradingkey - On July 13, Eastern Time, the memory stock sector suffered a broad decline. As of press time, SanDisk (SNDK) fell 12.32%, SK Hynix (SKHY) dropped 8.97%, Western Digital (WDC) declined 6.97%, Seagate Technology (STX) slipped 5.86%, and Micron Technology (MU) decreased 4.99%. It is noteworthy that the downturn in the memory sector is inextricably linked to the sell-off in the South Korean stock market—South Korea's KOSPI plunged over 8%, triggering a circuit breaker, while SK Hynix plummeted 15% and Samsung fell more than 10%.

TradingKey - On July 13 (ET), Intel (INTC) shares fell to a nearly one-month low, dropping 4.29% to $105.13 as of press time. Intel's competitor TSMC (TSM) released its June revenue data, showing that monthly consolidated revenue reached NT$442.68 billion, a significant year-on-year increase of 67.9%. For the first six months of the year, TSMC’s cumulative consolidated revenue totaled approximately NT$2.40 trillion, up 35.6% compared to the same period last year.

TradingKey - Costco (COST) stock has pulled back as comparable sales growth slowed and a new lawsuit added to investor concerns. Explore the latest Costco stock forecast, analyst price targets, technical levels, membership strength, and key catalysts before earnings

TradingKey - On July 13, Eastern Time, spot gold fell by more than 2%, trading at [price] as of press time. According to reports, U.S. President Trump stated on social media: "We are going to take over the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran has nothing." Specifically, President Trump stated that the Strait of Hormuz is open and will remain open with or without Iran. He announced the resumption of the "Blockade Iran" operation, so named because it only prevents Iranian vessels or customers from entering or exiting. All other countries will have fair and open use of the strait. From now on, the United States will be known as the "Guardian of the Strait of Hormuz." As the guardian, and based on the principle of fairness, the U.S. will charge a 20% fee on all cargo shipments to compensate for all costs required to provide safety and security for this volatile region of the world. Relevant procedures and organizational work will commence immediately. Thank you for your attention to this matter!

TradingKey - Amazon’s AWS grew 28% in Q1 2026, its fastest pace in 15 quarters. EPS beat by 69%. But free cash flow collapsed to $1.2B on $200B capex. At $245 with Q2 earnings July 30, the 0.5 Fib is the level to watch this week.

TradingKey - As the second-quarter earnings season for U.S. bank stocks officially commences, JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC), Goldman Sachs (GS), and Wells Fargo (WFC) are scheduled to release their Q2 results on July 14.

TradingKey - Over the past week, the focus of competition in the AI industry has shifted from "performance" to "price." From Elon Musk's SpaceXAI (SPCX) to OpenAI and Meta (META), the three giants released their next-generation AI models in quick succession. This time, however, the competition is not just about who is "smarter," but also about who is "cheaper."

TradingKey - Meta launched Meta Compute to compete with AWS and Azure, confirmed its Iris AI chip enters production in September, and rose 15% on the week. At $669 breaking out of a symmetrical triangle, the week ahead’s trigger is $691. Q2 earnings July 29.

TradingKey - On July 13, Eastern Time, the three major US stock index futures fell collectively in pre-market trading. As of press time, Nasdaq 100 Index futures were down 0.83%, S&P 500 Index futures dropped 0.26%, and Dow Jones Index futures declined 0.03%.

TradingKey - AMD launches Zen 6 Venice on July 22 at Advancing AI 2026. Citi says expect industry-shaking announcements. Stifel raised to $635. Helios rack-scale is Meta’s Nvidia alternative. At $539, the $557.70 trigger is the week-ahead watch level.

TradingKey — On Monday, Meta (META) announced an additional $40 billion investment in the Hyperion data center in Louisiana, bringing the total investment for the project to over $50 billion and making it one of the largest AI infrastructure projects in the world.

TradingKey - The global semiconductor industry is experiencing an unprecedented price storm, as the wave of price hikes spreads from advanced processes required for AI chips to mature nodes. TSMC (TSM) plans to raise foundry prices for mature processes starting in January 2027, marking its first price adjustment for mature nodes in over three years.

TradingKey - On July 12, ET, as mainstream investment banks raised their 2026 S&P 500 price targets to the 7,500–8,100 range, James E. Thorne, Chief Market Strategist at Wellington-Altus Private Wealth, issued an even bolder long-term forecast: the S&P 500 is expected to hit the 14,000-point mark within the next five years (by 2031), nearly doubling from its current level of approximately 7,500.

TradingKey - At 10:00 AM ET on Tuesday (July 13), Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh will appear before the U.S. House Financial Services Committee to testify on the Fed's semi-annual monetary policy report. This will mark the first time Warsh has submitted the semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress since taking office as Fed Chair. Subsequently, he will also attend a hearing before the Senate Banking Committee on July 15.

TradingKey — Recently, Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang, along with CFO Colette Kress and Head of Investor Relations Toshiya Hari, personally attended a non-deal roadshow (NDR) hosted by Morgan Stanley in California, directly addressing the triple concerns of institutional investors regarding product progress, ASIC competition, and growth sustainability.

TradingKey - Seoul, July 13: The South Korean government officially released its fiscal year 2027 budget plan today, with total fiscal expenditure surpassing 800 trillion won (approximately $530 billion) for the first time. This represents a significant jump from this year's 727.9 trillion won and marks the largest spending record in South Korean history. The confidence behind this "super budget" stems primarily from better-than-expected tax revenue dividends generated by the nation's semiconductor industry amid the global artificial intelligence wave.