EUR/SEK

Nomura’s Global Markets Research team, led by Josie Anderson, George Buckley and Andrzej Szczepaniak, notes that Sweden’s 13 September election remains too close to call, with the centre-left only narrowly ahead.

Danske Research Team explains that Sweden’s July Gross Domestic Product (GDP) indicator was weak, but underlying domestic activity appears stronger, with solid services and consumption data.

Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke argues that despite currently low Swedish inflation readings, the Riksbank is likely to maintain its guidance that the policy rate could rise by year-end.

Nomura strategists expect Sweden’s central bank, the Riksbank to keep its policy rate on hold for the rest of 2026 and deliver only one 25 bp hike to 2.00% in early 2027.

Danske Research Team reports that softer-than-expected Swedish August inflation reduced market pricing for a September Riksbank rate hike. CPI, CPIF and CPIF-XE all undershot the bank’s forecasts, with the downside surprise described as broad-based.

BNY’s Geoff Yu says rising Swedish import prices and continued weakness in the krona are adding to inflation risks. He expects the Riksbank to adopt firmer language on SEK valuations and sees scope for the market to bring forward expectations for the next rate hike.