モンデリーズ・インターナショナル (MDLZ) 2026年第3四半期決算説明会：販売量の増加と2027年EPS見通し

主要ポイント

• モンテリーズ・インターナショナルは2026年の売上高およびEPSの通期見通しを維持しました。 経営陣は、新興国市場が引き続き強力な成長エンジンとなっている一方、 北米および欧州も改善傾向を継続していると述べました。
• 欧州では、季節外れの猛暑により地域全体の成長率が約1ポイント押し下げられたものの、数量／製品ミックスで1.6ポイントのプラス成長を達成しました。
• 経営陣は、数量主導の成長、生産性向上によるコスト削減、ならびに新興国市場および先進国市場における好調なモメンタムを背景に、2027年に堅調なEPS成長を達成することに引き続き自信を示しています。
• 流通網の拡大は引き続き主要な成長ドライバーです。モンテリーズは年初来、インドで約13万軒の販売店舗を追加し、ブラジルでは取扱店舗数が100万店を突破しました。また、中国、インド、ブラジルの3市場全体で、さらに約25%の数値的流通拡大の余地があると推定しています。
• カカオ市場のファンダメンタルズは、2024年と比較して大幅に改善していると説明されました。経営陣は、2025〜2026年サイクルが50万トン近くの供給余剰で終了すると予想しており、これが2026〜2027年に見込まれる約19万トンの供給不足に対する緩衝材になるとみています。
• モンテリーズは、アンダーカバー・スナックス（Undercover Snacks）の過半数株式を取得することで合意しました。この取引は、規制当局の承認やその他の完了条件を満たすことを前提に、2027年初頭に完了する予定です。

主要財務データ

事業および業績の動向

新興国市場

消費者マインドは全体として堅調を維持しました。経営陣は、インドが非常に好調、メキシコとブラジルが堅調であると説明しました。中国はやや軟調だったものの、同社は同市場に対して引き続き前向きな見方を維持しています。

モンテリーズは新興国市場全体で好調な数量成長と売上高成長を報告し、ビスケットとチョコレートが堅調に推移しました。新規店舗の獲得、店舗内の大型クーラー設置、1店舗あたりの取扱商品数の拡大など、流通網の拡大が引き続き戦略の中核となりました。

中南米では、アルゼンチンでキャッシュ重視の事業運営と大幅な値上げを実施しているため、同国が引き続き数量の最大の押し下げ要因となりました。ブラジルでは、以前のチョコレートの値上げや内容量調整が数量／製品ミックスを圧迫したものの、経営陣はこのカテゴリーが底を打ち、シェアを拡大しつつあると述べました。

欧州

欧州の消費者マインドは概ね安定していたものの、エネルギー価格や生活費の圧迫により慎重な姿勢が見られました。モンテリーズは、広告費および消費者向け投資、プロモーション活動、イノベーションに支えられ、数量／製品ミックスのプラス成長と市場シェアの改善傾向を達成しました。

前年の大幅な値上げが一巡したことや、2026年前半に特にチョコレート分野で限定的な価格調整を実施したことを反映し、価格改定効果は引き続きマイナスとなりました。経営陣は、これらの措置はブランド浸透度、顧客ロイヤルティ、および売上総利益額（ドルベース）を維持することを目的としたものだと説明しました。

北米

消費者マインドは引き続き軟調で、成長は高所得世帯に集中しました。モンテリーズは自社の業績について、規律あるプロモーション活動、成長余地のあるチャネルへの拡大、広告・消費者向け投資の増額、ならびに継続的なイノベーションによるものと説明しました。

同社は全面的な値下げは行わず、代わりにプロモーションの割引率や実施頻度を最適化しました。2027年に向けて、経営陣はシェアと数量／製品ミックスの勢いを維持するため、価格設定は引き続き限定的（選択的）に行うと述べました。生産性の向上とサプライチェーンでのコスト削減により、インフレ圧力の相殺を目指します。

アンダーカバー・スナックスの買収

アンダーカバー・スナックスは、グルテンフリーでアレルギーに配慮したチョコレートがけクリスピースナックを提供しており、「ヘルシー（better-for-you）」や「罪悪感の少ない間食（permissible-indulgence）」のセグメントに位置付けられています。同ブランドはターゲット（Target）やウォルマート（Walmart）などの小売店で販売されているほか、2023年からはユナイテッド航空の機内食としても提供されています。

モンテリーズは、北米ベンチャー・ポートフォリオ内の独立した事業部門として同社を運営する計画です。CEOのダイアナ・レヴィ（Diana Levy）氏は留任します。経営陣は、モンテリーズが広範な流通網、調達力、消費者インサイト、マーケティングの知見を通じて同社の成長を支援すると見込んでいます。なお、本買収が2027年の業績に与える寄与度は大きくないと予想されています。

経営陣の見通し（ガイダンス）

モンテリーズは2026年の売上高およびEPSの見通しを維持しました。経営陣は、中東紛争に関連するコストを吸収しつつ、業績の上振れ分についてはイノベーション、新興国市場、広告および消費者支援などの分野に引き続き再投資すると述べました。

2026年第4四半期について、経営陣は数量／製品ミックスの成長維持に加え、売上総利益および営業利益（金額ベース）の力強い伸びを見込んでいます。なお、具体的な四半期単位の数値ガイダンスは提示しませんでした。

2027年について、経営陣は力強いEPS成長に改めて自信を示しました。想定される要因には、数量主導の成長、新興国市場の継続的な強さ、欧州のさらなる安定化、北米のモメンタム、生産性向上によるコスト削減が含まれます。なお、2027年の具体的な売上高見通しを示すのは時期尚早であるとしています。

リスクおよび注視事項

• エネルギーや燃料価格の上昇が、特に北米および欧州の消費者の重荷となっています。
• モンテリーズは、貨物輸送費、乳製品、油脂類、および包装資材におけるインフレに直面しています。
• 中東紛争は、一部の市場で追加コストやインフレの懸念をもたらしています。
• 欧州では、前年の値上げが一巡することや、以前に実施した限定的な価格調整を反映するため、今後数四半期にわたって価格改定効果がマイナスとなる見込みです。
• 2026〜2027年に予測されるカカオ不足は、コートジボワールおよびガーナにおけるメインクロップの初期生育不良や強いエルニーニョ現象の予想を反映したものです。ただし、経営陣は現在の在庫水準で十分な防護策になると考えています。
• 中国における消費者環境は引き続き軟調であり、アルゼンチンは報告される中南米の数量を圧迫し続けています。

アナリスト質疑応答の要点

2027年の力強いEPS成長を支える要因は何ですか？ 経営陣は、数量主導の成長、新興国市場の強さ、欧州の安定化、北米のモメンタム、および生産性向上によるコスト削減を挙げました。これらの要因により、貨物輸送費やその他の原材料におけるインフレを相殺できると見込んでいます。

モンテリーズは北米で値上げを実施しますか？ 同社は2027年に向けて限定的な価格改定を検討中ですが、市場シェアと数量／製品ミックスの維持を重視していることを強調しました。プロモーション、生産性向上、サプライチェーンの改善が引き続き重要な収益テコとなります。

なぜ欧州の価格改定効果はマイナスなのですか？ モンテリーズは前年の大幅な値上げが一巡しているほか、2026年前半に実施した限定的な価格調整を反映しています。経営陣は、この影響が今後数四半期続くと予想しています。

新興国市場の成長の持続可能性はどの程度ですか？ 経営陣は、小売店舗数の拡大、取扱商品の追加、ならびに中国、インド、ブラジルにおいて依然として約25%残されている数値的流通拡大の可能性を指摘しました。

M&A戦略はどのようなものですか？ モンテリーズは、地理的またはカテゴリー的な隙間を埋める目的を絞ったボルトオン型（補完的）買収を継続して選好しています。経営陣は、潜在的なボルトオン買収の規模について、小規模な取引から売上高約5億ドル、場合によっては10億ドル近くの事業まで多岐にわたる可能性があると言及しました。

決算説明会トランスクリプト全文

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Mondelez International Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Question-and-Answer session. [Operator Instructions]

On today's call are Dirk Van de Put, Chairman and CEO; Luca Zaramella, COO; Amit Banati, CFO; and Shep Dunlap, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Earlier this afternoon, the company posted a press release and prepared remarks, both of which are available on its website.

During the call, the company will make forward-looking statements about performance. These statements are based on how the company sees things today. Actual results may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties. Please refer to the cautionary statements and risk factors contained in the company's 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K filings for more details on forward-looking statements.

As the company discusses results today, unless noted as reported, you will be referencing non-GAAP financial measures which adjust for certain items included in the company's GAAP results. In addition to the company's year-over-year growth on a constant currency basis, unless otherwise noted, you can find comparable GAAP measures and GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations within the company's earnings release at the back of the slide presentation.

Operator

We will now move to our first question. And our first question comes from the line of Andrew Lazar with Barclays.

質疑応答

Andrew Lazar

Dirk, I was hoping we could start as we often do with some of your current thinking really around the state of the consumer in some of your key regions? And then I've just got a follow-up from Amit.

Dirk Van de Put

Thank you, Andrew. Yes, I think that makes sense. So if I start with emerging markets, I would say that the consumer overall, the confidence is resilient. There is a difference, like India is very positive. I would say, Latin America, with Mexico and Brazil is solid. And then China is softer, but overall, we remain constructive on China. The -- if you look at it, the -- we have good volume growth, we have strong top line growth. Snacking continues to perform well across all the major emerging markets. particularly pleased that the categories in value are holding up very well, particularly in biscuits and chocolate.

As you know, we continue to increase our distribution year-to-date, I think we've added about 130,000 outlets in India. Brazil, we're now over 1 million stores. And in China, we still have a very long runway. So we keep on doing that. And of course, there is inflation driven by the conflict in the Middle East. And that is a concern with consumers, for instance, in India. But overall, we feel good about the consumer in emerging markets at this stage.

Switching to Europe. I would say the consumer there, the confidence is generally stable, maybe a little bit better than in the last quarter. but very cautious and you've seen some of the things that are going on due to the energy prices and the cost of living increases. So clearly, inflation is high on the mind of consumers. The other thing seen all the heavy price increases last year, most players in our markets are behaving very rationally.

And I think the good news is that we have a positive volume mix growth of 1.6 PP in Europe was very broad-based. And on top, our share dynamics are improving. You have to take into account that on top, we had unseasonably hot weather, which had a 1% negative effect on our growth in Europe. And we are very focused on execution. We are doing very strong A&C reinvestment. We are also focused on strong activations and we have some innovations like Bisco or the Milacron that are landing very well. And we think that the positive volume growth is going to continue for the rest of the year.

And then lastly, in North America, I would say consumer confidence remains soft, also driven by energy and fuel prices. And to be honest, I don't think it's going to improve anytime soon. The K-shaped economy continues where the growth is really coming from the higher income households. We feel good about our results in Q3 and year-to-date, and we expect them to continue with solid growth in North America, and that is driven by promo discipline, us growing more in the under-indexed channels and some of the innovation and activation is doing particularly well. So overall, I would say, a pretty solid picture in the quarter.

Andrew Lazar

Great. That's really helpful. And then Amit, Mondelez today, reiterated its forecast, right, for strong EPS growth in '27. I'd really like it if you can maybe just walk through some of the key puts and takes for next year, particularly around visibility into maintaining positive volume momentum and how we should think about price, particularly in the key European region?

Amit Banati

Yes. So I'll start. From a '26 standpoint, Andrew, I think we're going to -- we are maintaining our top line outlook as Dirk mentioned, in emerging markets, we are performing well. They remain a strong engine of volume and top line growth for us. We feel good about where we are in developed markets as well. performing well in North America despite a soft consumer. And you saw this quarter, we grew share as well as top line. So we're executing well in North America and Europe, we continue to progress well. This quarter, you saw us grow volume as we lap prices and made carry forward some selective price investments that we had made earlier in the year.

From an EPS standpoint, for this year, we're maintaining our outlook. I think we've been consistent that we're going to reinvest any upside back into the business into areas that are working, innovation like risk of emerging markets in the quarter, we continued to invest back into A&C as well. So from -- and of course, we're continuing to absorb the costs related to the Middle East war. So we're absorbing that within our outlook.

So from a '27 standpoint, I think despite increased volatility in the macro as well as headwinds from an inflation standpoint, I think we remain confident that we are going to drive strong EPS growth in '27. I think that's going to be on the back of volume-led growth into the year. I think we continue to expect strength in the emerging markets, increased stabilization in Europe, continued momentum in Europe, in the U.S.

And then, of course, we feel very good about our productivity program and the savings that we expect into next year. So we feel confident despite the inflation that we are seeing in freight and some other commodities, we feel good and confident about our delivery -- about our ability to drive strong EPS growth in '27.

Operator

We'll take our next question from Peter Galbo with Bank of America.

Peter Galbo

Dirk, I just wanted to follow up maybe starting in North America. You're 1 of the few packaged food companies that's posting kind of positive organic sales growth in North America, you're doing that through a combination of volume and price, at least year-to-date. And if I go back to the start of the year, you were pretty emphatic in your views that the kind of cutting price in North America wasn't the right strategy, whereas some of your competitors maybe were moving in that direction. I think that's proved true. And now we're just seeing the pendulum kind of swing the other way, where we're hearing more of your peers talk about taking pricing up. So maybe you can just comment on kind of how you see the environment evolving there, particularly from a price standpoint as we get into '27?

Dirk Van de Put

Yes. Thank you, Peter. I'll hand it over to Luca to talk about the North American business.

Luca Zaramella

Yes. So Peter, first of all, I think it was a solid Q3 performance. what underpin the performance once again is the outcomes of our shares that have been improving and consistently gaining traction throughout the year. Very happy with biscuits overall, particularly Sabre is really on a roll but also can be and clearly, in some cases, even in bars, we are gaining share through Sabre, which is really an outstanding brand.

As you said, the promotions tactics have changed for us, and they are yielding good results. I think we are well executing around the depth of those promotions. The frequency and those are clearly delivering a good level of incrementality to our business. So that's 1 thing that we have fixed and that is paying off. We didn't reduce prices, but we have become I think, more precise as to what we do when. Importantly, we have increased the A&C GP dollar in the U.S. was up in North America was up, but it was partially offset by A&C spending and definitely happy with the incrementality related to some innovation launches we have made.

So I think we are still cautious in terms of what type of pricing we had to take, and we are assessing carefully as we go into 2027, what we have to do. But in a nutshell, I think if you look at the volume/mix momentum, which we believe is going to accelerate [Audio Gap]

So Peter, I don't know where you lost me. But I gave quite an articulated answer. So let me repeat what I said. Look, as we boil down to the U.S. and North America in general. Look, we are quite pleased with the performance of the U.S. As you said, the share performance, I believe, in general, is quite positive, we very pleased with Savory that is at all in terms of share gains, risks and innovation is really resulting incrementality and delivering volume mix and share gains. So we are very pleased we can be sort of at is an outstanding brand that is delivering quite a bit of growth.

As I mentioned a few points, the bigger change we may seem, obviously, Q4 last year, it has been around promotion. And as it goes on to promotions, we had redefined June our strategies in a way that result in a near as opposed to last year where there was quite a big switching between regular prices and proper prices. We saw increase in AMC, and that is clearly helping us.

And finally, launches that we have made at our audio which mean is clarified protein are clearly resulted in positions. As we look at the shape of the P&L, there is clearly some inflationary pressure coming our way, but the reality -- the reality is we want to protect share and volume mix momentum. So we will be very selective on the pricing actions that we would take as a majority of them will be most likely to PVA and we have some plans as we walk into 2027.

I think you're going to see 1 good numbers in terms of share and volume momentum in Q4, and that momentum is critical to be kept into the P&L of 2027 as North America's algo leverage. coming out of it. And so a combination of oil mix, PPA selective pricing and the fact that we will continue pushing part on productivity and supply chain in North America is delivering with outcome.

We believe that we have what in place to keep on investing in the business and the events to the income in North america for next year.

Peter Galbo

Great. And apologies on the technical. Maybe just as a quick follow-up on Europe. I think it's kind of the opposite question, but just I think the pricing was maybe a bit light of expectations or down a bit more. Maybe you could just comment on kind of how you see that shaping up in Q4 and into next year as we think about exit rate?

Luca Zaramella

Look, I think, again, the -- we are quite pleased with the way Europe is turning the P&L in. Despite the of summer, clearly, things are moving in the right direction. You saw positive volume mix. You saw the impact of both chocolate and the other categories, it's positive across both chocolate and biscuit. The reality is, as I said consistently since the Q1 earnings, we made some selective price adjustments in Europe. And as we start lapping higher pricing in the second part of last year, those clearly are impacting through pricing, particularly in the chocolate category.

So I would say nothing really to worry about. Those are decisions that we made at the beginning of the year in terms of adjustments of pricing that we decided was the right thing to do. I think you have to say that the volume mix and the share numbers that we are seeing are clearly a reflection of those decisions were sound. And importantly, as I mentioned many times, we are looking at GP dollar growth. And so our goal has been consistently to deliver the right pricing level for our consumers, it has been consistently in restoring the profit pool of chocolate across the board.

And it is in the end, something that we believe is paying off because I believe those pricing actions are actually allowing us to have a much more sound and sustainable business because in the end, what matters to us. is to keep the penetration of our brand and the loyalty of our consumers into our brands. And as we look at penetration numbers, as we look at share results, clearly, for me, at least, that was the right decision to be made.

Operator

We'll take our next question from Rob Dickerson with U.S. Bancorp.

Robert Dickerson

Great. Maybe just a question on the acquisition, right? I know you said you acquired a majority stake in undercover snacks. So maybe you could just kind of walk through rationale distribution potential kind of how it fits in the portfolio and really kind of why you like the brand?

Dirk Van de Put

So it's -- basically, it's a crispy Kina snack with quite a unique currency texture. It's usually chocolate covers or prospects. The brand is called undercover because the founder wanted to give her kids who were diagnosed with celiac disease, helping regions in this guy. So it's a healthy product, but really great pace. So it's very simple. It has better-for-you ingredients, it's gluten-free, it's allergy friendly. And if you've flown United Airlines, you probably have had the snacks. There's on the place is 21 and they're in the main cabin also as a complementary snacks since 2023 or they're ibottarget, Walmart and so on.

So overall, the reason why we like it is highly incremental to our portfolio. I think it's going to capture growing demand spaces, particularly the better-for-you moments, the permissible indulgence. And we think that's a complementary consumer base. We believe that over time, our portfolio needs to evolve towards healthier snacks, and this is 1 step in that direction, basically.

I think that as consumers' age, younger consumers, they will be looking for great tasting, better-for-you snacks that support a more active lifestyle. So the opportunity is quite big. It's -- at the moment, it's a small business, growing very fast, though, still a very big distribution opportunity, which, of course, that's 1 of the areas where we can help, but we will also provide them with health in procurement. We will sharpen the positioning through our consumers' insights and our marketing expertise and we will help the team add undercover to accelerate their growth.

Diana Levy, who is the CEO, will remain the CEO, and we will integrate the business as a stand-alone unit within our North American ventures where we have other brands just like -- perfect Snacks, states or you being in chocolate. And so we think that the deal will close by early '27, of course, subject to closing conditions, regulatory approval, but overall, we're quite excited. And I think it's really building for the future here. It won't make a big difference in '27. But I think we're moving our portfolio in the right direction with this acquisitions.

Robert Dickerson

All right. Great. Interesting. And then maybe if I could as question around Kacal. I mean, clearly, right, we're in the period, West Africa can crop and we've seen the price of Ducales in spot or near-term futures increase, feel like investors were talking about that a fair amount. But at the same time, we did hear from another company this morning kind of speaking for a number of reasons to kind of how that cost should come down. at least, I guess, over time, I don't know if it's near term, but you usually provide a lot of detailed perspective that I appreciate. So maybe any perspective you can give on kind of view on total right now would be helpful.

Dirk Van de Put

Yes, sure. I mean I think it's important to understand that the market is fundamentally in a different position than the spike that we saw in '24. I think if you look at the '25, '26 cycle, we expect to be ending this year with a surplus of almost 0.5 million tonnes, so 500,000 tonnes, which is a record level of surplus. So I think if you look at the level of inventories that are there in the market right now, they're very good. I think from a '26, '27 standpoint, right now, if you look at the estimates, it's projected to be a deficit of, call it, around 190,000 tonnes, I think, driven by poor initial setting of the main crop in Ivory Coast and Ghana as well as expectations of a strong El Nino.

So even if that deficit were to eventuate, there is plenty of supply from the surplus this year to absorb that deficit. So I think we feel pretty good about the fundamentals of the market. It's very different from what it was in '24. You look at the coverage levels of the industry, they're at around 9 months. again, different position than where it was in '24. And if you look at the cocoa prices itself, they remain largely range bound as the concerns of the El Nino have been priced in.

So net-net, that's our view. And I think the fundamentals are in a much stronger position than in the previous crisis.

Operator

We'll take our next question from Chris Carey with Wells Fargo Securities.

Christopher Carey

Yes. I'd like to ask about Latin America, please. The volumes here have flattened out and turned slightly positive past couple of quarters for the first time and a little over 2 years, which is certainly nice to see. Can you give us a bit of context on why have volumes been under pressure in Latin America? What is the evolution that has brought us to this point? And how should we think about the durability of positive volume growth in the region and the concept of pricing versus affordability here as we go into next year?

Luca Zaramella

Yes. So look, the number 1 drug in terms of volume for Latin America, it is Argentina, which we manage for cash and where we have been pricing very diligently over the quarters. And so when you strip that out and you look at the volume/mix performance of Latin America, it has actually been okay, I would say. Remember that in Brazil, we had quite a material and sizable chocolate business, which, again, we price diligently. And part of the pricing actions that we took were through RGM, and so we downsized some of the portfolio. reality is chocolate in Brazil is turning the corner in terms of volume mix. And importantly, we have been gaining share consistently in the last few quarters.

So I think there, the situation is absolutely under control. We get penetration. We have been gaining share and in general, we have been delivering good volume -- good revenue growth for the business. When you step back and you look at the business all across, excluding Argentina, you actually see that in Latin America, the volume mix for the chocolate business has been at about 4% to 5% in the last quarter. So I think it is quite a remarkable number. We are extremely pleased with the performance of coming Kandy. particularly Trident is delivering amazing numbers across the board. We have record high share, record high penetration. We are investing materially in the business, gaining distribution and delivering profit out of it.

And then clearly, all the regions, Mexico, Brazil and WAC are delivering, in general, a positive volume mix and the exception is really, as I said, the chocolate business in Brazil. As we start lapping the pricing actions and the PPA that we took last year, you're going to see accelerated volume mix coming out of Brazil, too. So a long articulated answer, but I would say Argentina is the #1 driver. And then clearly, some of the pricing and decisions that we took about chocolate in Brazil have been resulting in lower volume mix than maybe you had in mind.

Christopher Carey

That's very helpful. Just on Q4, it could imply a wide range for profit outcomes if you take the full year guidance, I'm sure your own internal expectations are not so wide. Can you give us a sense of maybe where you might be landing on the range or just a way to frame how to think about Q4, so as to get a sense of exit rate on that could be top line margins, earnings trajectory, but just conscious it's a wide range relative to Q4. So any additional color you could provide, I think, would be helpful.

Amit Banati

I think, like I said, we'll be -- we are maintaining our EPS outlook for the year. I think in the quarter, without getting into specific quarterly guidance, I think you can expect for us to continue to -- you can expect to see us continue to grow volume mix into the quarter. I think the upside that we've seen in quarter 3, we'd reinvest back into the business. I think you'll see strong gross profit and OI dollar growth in the quarter.

Operator

Our next question will come from Max Gumport BNB.

Max Andrew Gumport

Thanks very much for the question. Very strong gross profit delivery in the quarter, which helped to refund some reinvestment in advertising and brand support. I was hoping you could give us a bit more color on what drove the gross profit delivery, given it came in much better than the Street was modeling and to help to drive the EPS?

Amit Banati

Yes. I think strong volume growth. So obviously, operating leverage coming through. I think very pleased with the productivity program that our supply chain colleagues are delivering through the supply chain, in procurement, in conversion. So that clearly helped in the quarter. And of course, as we have discussed, timing of cocoa. So we saw that the benefit of a lower cocoa cost come through in the quarter as well. So those are the main drivers from a gross profit standpoint.

And I think, like I mentioned, we should continue to see that into quarter 4 as well.

Max Andrew Gumport

Great. And then on the emerging markets, can you just give us a sense for where we are in the distribution run rate. I mean you talked about adding, I think it was 130,000 outlets year-to-date in India, in Brazil, you're now at more than 1 million stores, but can you just help frame how much more upside there is in some of these emerging markets from expanding your distribution?

Luca Zaramella

I mean, look, the universe is much bigger than our current distribution. And I think what is also important for you to know is that the universe of point of sales, particularly in places like India, Southeast Asia and in other places in Latin America, the universe is growing consistently. So it is most likely a point in time type of number that we can give you. but reality is the universe is going. The other big opportunity that we have is around the number of listed items that we have on the store. I think what you have to consider at this point in time is that the runway that we have in places like China, India, Brazil, it is most likely we still have 25% numeric distribution to go.

Clearly, the 25% numeric distribution is a number that implies smaller opportunities on as you go and grab it. But it is still a sizable number to be open. There is also an opportunity that we have, particularly in places like India, which is to upgrade the current universe in the sense that you know that we have these coolers in India. And the size of the coolers depend upon the evolution of the point of sales. So between the incremental point of sales, the upgrade that we have on the current universe, the fact that we can increase the number of items that are carried by those stores. I think the opportunity is quite sizable.

I think it is not by coincidence that you see us delivering numbers that are north of 20% growth in India or for that matter in China. numbers that have, quite frankly, defeated the odds of the market, particularly if you compare us to other companies, the reason why those numbers are being delivered is because we pursue incremental distribution opportunities quite rigorously.

Operator

We'll take our next question from Tom Palmer with JPMorgan.

Thomas Palmer

I wanted to maybe ask a little bit more on the cost environment. There's obviously the call outs that we've heard today from you and certainly from others on freight and fuel pressures in North America. Maybe a little framing on what you're seeing overseas today? And then as we start to roll into 2027, I think 1 of the key drivers of earnings was kind of this more favorable cost environment, especially in write ingredients like Coco, to what extent that kind of still holds. I don't mean the earnings growth, I mean kind of the cost environment when we balance it against some of these other costs that seem to be escalating?

Dirk Van de Put

Yes. So I'll start by saying that overall, from a '27 standpoint, we remain confident on delivering strong EPS growth in '27. I think like you mentioned, we are seeing increased increases in commodities, commodities like dairy, oil, packaging. So we are seeing inflation in that, obviously, we have productivity programs, strong productivity programs that are delivering this year, and we continue to accelerate that into next year as well. But if you kind of look at the overall mix I think we have plenty of levers to drive the earnings growth into '27.

Thomas Palmer

Okay. Understood. And then on the M&A front, obviously, the smaller acquisition here today in terms of undercover snacks that has a lot of growth opportunity. What's your appetite as you kind of shift into -- maybe a more favorable environment for growth, at least what you guys are showing, maybe not everyone to take on something a little bit bigger when it comes to M&A?

Dirk Van de Put

But in general, as we stated several times, our strategy is bolt-ons, and I mean there's bolt-on and there's bolt-on. This 1 of today is on the smaller side. There are bolt-ons, which could be in the $0.5 billion, sometimes even close to $1 billion in sales. But that would be sort of the order of magnitude, I would say that we have in mind. We are not necessarily pursuing something bigger, largely because we have a very targeted strategy of trying to find the geographical areas around the world where we have gaps or the segments in our categories where we have gaps and surgically, if you want to call it like that, trying to reinforce our portfolio. That has worked well for us.

And usually, those are the opportunity that can't be the least baggage, if I can call it, because if you go bigger, you might like a part of the company really well. There might be a part that you don't like so much. And -- so far, we are planning to continue on that course.

Operator

We'll take our next question from Alexia Howard with Bernstein.

Alexia Howard

You sound very confident about the strong EPS growth in 2027, but little has been said about the outlook for sales growth. Obviously, this year was at least 2%, so that's below algorithm. What are the big puts and takes? And could we get back onto algorithm next year? Or is that still TBD? And then I have a follow-up.

Amit Banati

Yes, I think it's premature to talk about the '27 and we'll obviously talk that when we give guidance for the year. I would say that we are very focused on driving volume. And that's -- you've seen us reinvest back in this quarter and render you would expect us to reinvest back in quarter 4 as well to really drive volume and growth into '27.

And just to give you a little bit more color, we'd expect continued strength in the emerging markets. I think you should see increasing stabilization in Europe. continued momentum in North America and Luca talked a little bit about some of the drivers that we are seeing from a North America performance standpoint. So you should expect to see us continue to drive that.

Alexia Howard

And then could I just ask, should we expect the negative price growth driven presumably by chocolate in Europe to continue over the next couple of quarters? When do we start to lap all of that?

Luca Zaramella

So I think the straight answer is, yes. Again, I think you need to bear in mind that pricing last year ramped up throughout the quarter. And so I urge you to take a look at the combined cumulative pricing across the 2 years. And I think you have -- you will have a good sense of what type of pricing to expect for the couple of quarters to come.

Dirk Van de Put

Thank you, Alexia. And I think with this, that concludes the Q&A for today. Thank you very much for assisting to the call. Good quarter. We feel good about Q4 also. And we'll talk to you next quarter. Thank you.

Amit Banati

Thank you.

Luca Zaramella

Thank you. Bye.

Operator

Thank you. This brings us to the end of today's meeting. We appreciate your time and participation. You may now disconnect.