Analysis

The AUD/USD edges lower during the North American session, poised to remain sideways within key technical support and resistance levels, with the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7187 and the 50-day SMA at 0.7095. At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 0.7137, down 0.17%.

Brokers, fintech firms, liquidity providers, banks, EMIs, wealth and portfolio managers, and hedge funds have a new meeting point in APAC.

The GBP/USD pair opens with a bearish gap at the start of a new week and, for now, seems to have snapped a five-day winning streak to its highest level since late February, around the 1.3485 region set last week.

TradingKey - GBP/USD has shown strong performance over the past month, rising from around 1.30 to 1.34, and has not declined despite expectations of a central bank rate cut. Looking ahead to 2026, GBP/USD may experience volatile pullbacks, testing support levels around 1.25.

TradingKey - UK Economy Shows Persistent Weakness as Construction Slump Deepens.The UK economy remains under pressure, with S&P Global’s latest purchasing managers’ index (PMI) released on the 6th showing that construction activity contracted for a ninth consecutive month in September.

TradingKey - The Swiss Franc faces counteracting bullish and bearish pressures. Given these dynamics, the USD/CHF pair is likely to trade within a range in the near term. In terms of investment strategy, investors should closely monitor the 0.78 low and 0.84 high of this currency pair. 

While the pound has room to rise against the dollar in the near term, the UK’s economic risks and medium-term bearish outlook suggest investors should exercise caution when chasing pound gains.

Following the AUD/USD exchange rate increase in April and May this year, we believe there remains upside potential for the currency pair in the short term (0-3 months).

The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, extending its losses for the second consecutive day. However, the AUD/USD pair may appreciate as softer US inflation data have boosted bets of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in September.

The AUD/JPY cross attracted some sellers after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting Minutes showed that the central bank had considered an outsized 50 basis point cut in May.

In the short term (0-3 months), we expect GBP/USD to rise slightly. Here, we emphasize “rising + slight”.

TradingKey - Recent internal and external factors have driven a sharp appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar (TWD). Looking ahead, despite potential pressure from the U.S., Taiwan’s export-oriented economy, emerging economic weakness, and China’s monetary easing ...

TradingKey - The Swiss Franc (CHF) will be shaped by three key drivers: risk appetite, interest rate dynamics, and Swiss National Bank (SNB) interventions.

TradingKey - At the front end of the NZD/USD currency pair, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is expected to weaken against non-USD currencies due to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) ongoing rate cuts, the central bank’s recent dovish remarks and the impact of Trump’s tariff policies.

In the medium term (3-12 months), as the USD Index peaks and retreats, coupled with the stabilizing effect of the National Pension Service’s (NPS) FX hedging program, the KRW is likely to enter a range-bound fluctuation.

Given the uncertainty surrounding Trump-era policies, we evaluate two scenarios: 1) Tariffs avoided or delayed; 2) Broad-based tariffs implemented.

The strength of the Australian dollar (AUD) is influenced by both domestic and external factors. On the domestic front, the hawkish stance of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), rising commodity prices and China’s gradual economic recovery will provide support for the AUD. Externally, the USD Index

On the GBP side of the GBP/USD pair, the UK’s economic recovery, rising inflation and our expectation of smaller-than-anticipated interest rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE) provide support for the pound against non-USD currencies.

Today, we delve further into the exchange rate markets with a quantitative analysis. Our quantitative exchange rate forecasting tool is based on econometric multi-factor regression models. This approach involves identifying and analysing the key factors that influence exchange rates.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to strengthen against the US Dollar (USD) following the release of mixed Judo Bank Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data from Australia on Friday.