WTI Crude Oil Falling Below $90 Fails to Change Sticky Inflation, Rate Hike Probability Still Reaches 60%. Why Is the Market Still Betting on a Fed Rate Hike?
Tradingkey - Since the outbreak of the conflict in Iran, international crude oil prices have climbed rapidly. Over the past several months, U.S. economic data has consistently confirmed that inflationary pressures triggered by rising oil prices are spreading across the entire supply chain. Against this backdrop, the market moved early to price in Federal Reserve rate hike expectations, driving U.S. Treasury yields to continuous new periodic highs. However, a major turning point has emerged in the geopolitical landscape, with prospects for a peaceful resolution to the U.S.-Iran conflict. Consequently, WTI crude oil futures fell below the $90 per barrel psychological mark today for the first time since May 7. This shift has introduced uncertainty to the previously "certain" rate hike expectations that had broadly formed within the market.