Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) Share Price Forecast: 7-Year Backlog, Tejas Risk, Aug 7 Earnings

HAL at Rs 4,491 has stayed within the ascending triangle formation for the 2-hr, holding itself above the 50-EMA (Rs 4,449) and the 100-EMA (Rs 4,380). The 55 level on the RSI leaves room to rally without getting into overbought conditions. The immediate overhead resistance is at the top of the triangle (Rs 4,526).

Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

A break higher above this level with a closing trade would move the next targets to Rs 4,590 and then on to Rs 4,645. The support zone is defined by Rs 4,462 and the 50-EMA at Rs 4,449. Should the price fall below the 50-EMA, the next targets will be Rs 4,395 and Rs 4,344. HAL's 52-week range is Rs 3,479.10- Rs 4,978.

• FY26 order book: INR 254,538Cr. (over 7x FY26 revenue)
• FY26 new orders: INR 97,028Cr.
• Latest quarter results: EPS of Rs 62.74 vs estimates of Rs 53.42 (+17.44% beat), Revenue: Rs 139.42B.
• Earnings: August 7, 2026 (Consensus EPS for Q1 FY27: Rs 22.22).
• Dividends: Final FY26 payout of INR 10 per share; ex-div date August 14, 2026.
• Entry: Must see close above Rs 4,526.
• Next resistance levels: Rs 4,590 and Rs 4,645.
• Stops/Supports: Rs 4,462, Rs 4,449 (50 EMA), Rs 4,395.
• 52-week range: Rs 3,479- Rs 4,978.

As of FY26, HAL boasted a hefty order book of Rs 2,54,538 crore, worth more than seven years of revenue, at Rs 33,090 crore, up from Rs 1,89,302 crore at the start of FY26 on a gross order of Rs 97,028 crore. HAL’s largest order was the government’s Rs 62,370 crore order for 97 new Tejas Mk1A fighters that brought the total order tally to 180 aircraft.

HAL’s repair, overhaul, and service revenue at over Rs 26,500 crore provides a recurring stream that, unlike aircraft production, is far less dependent on production timelines. The backlog provides unusual long-term earnings visibility, but the realisation of the order book value depends on whether orders will actually materialise as scheduled aircraft delivery and service completion.

In June 2026, HAL had not yet delivered any Tejas Mk1A aircraft, despite the contract signed for 180 aircraft of the platform. Earlier delays in delivery were attributed to the scarcity of GE Aerospace F404-IN20 engines, but HAL was seen to have completed the structures of 18 aircraft and after receipt of at least six engines, government officials have asked why deliveries are still not made, while the government is considering imposition of liquidated damages for the delay.

The officials have said that if the production and qualification deficiencies have been corrected, it is likely to make deliveries of 18 to 24 aircraft in the current financial year’s end. The risk related to the execution of the programme was compounded in June 2026 when a complaint against a component supplier for allegedly falsifying test reports added a quality-control dimension to the execution risk.

Investors will watch the Q1 FY27 earnings report on August 7, most importantly for a fresh update on Tejas Mk1A deliveries in terms of aircraft delivered, or aircraft in the process of final qualification. They are hoping for an update on HAL’s delivery schedule for the remainder of the FY27.

HAL’s Q1 FY27 Earnings Per Share (EPS) of Rs 22.22, which was down considerably from Q4 FY26’s Rs 62.74, is expected by the analysts, which reflects the company’s revenue seasonality and its concentration in the March quarter. Revenue execution on the Rs 2,54,538 crore order book, progress made with helicopters produced through the new Tumakuru facility, and a new update on any liquidated damages discussions with the Indian Ministry of Defence are the secondary themes in the quarterly report.

The stock, which closed at Rs 4,491, sits within an ascending triangle, inching close to Rs 4,526, with the order book worth an equivalent value of seven years of revenue, a last quarter beat of 17.44 per cent over consensus EPS, and a fundamental story on the country’s fighter force deficit and work booked over the past decade in its fighter program, helicopter program and its maintenance and service business.

The risk of non-delivery is present, with the Tejas Mk1A deliveries lagging, a component supplier fraud complaint was filed in June 2026, and the liquidated damages being considered by the Indian Ministry of Defence at this point. An earnings report on Tejas updates on 7 August. If the current resistance level is confirmed by a close beyond 4526, the stock will target 4590 and 4645, while the support at 4449.