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Jason Tang
73 Articles
Jason is a Senior Economist at TradingKey’s Investment Research Team, bringing over a decade of expertise in macroeconomic research, multi-asset class analysis, and econometric forecasting. He has recently begun sharing his investment research insights through video content.
With a robust research foundation, Jason specializes in analysing macroeconomic trends in the United States, Europe and Japan, as well as developing asset allocation strategies for these major economies. Additionally, he conducts in-depth research and forecasting on trends across more than 10 foreign exchange markets.
Jason holds a Master’s degree in Economics from the London School of Economics (LSE) and successfully passed all three levels of the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) exams in 2014.
Written by Jason Tang
Reviewed by Jason Tang
Fed Interest Rate Decision Preview: Powell's Speech Is the Key Focus
On 20 March 2025, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its interest rate decision for March. The market widely anticipates that the central bank will keep its policy rate unchanged, maintaining it within the range of 4.25%–4.5%. We align with this consensus outlook.
Wed, Mar 19
Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision Preview: Pause on Rate Hikes Already Priced In, Minimal Market Movement Expected on the Day
On 19 March 2025, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce its March interest rate decision. The market widely expects the central bank to maintain its policy rate unchanged at 0.5%. We align with this consensus forecast.
Tue, Mar 18
[IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS] Trump Policies: Market Overreacted, Remain Bullish on Stocks
We believe the market is currently overemphasizing the impact of tariffs while overlooking other economic and political factors. In summary, we remain bullish on both U.S. and European stocks.
Mon, Mar 17
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Japan's "Shunto" Preview: Bank of Japan Rate Hike Imminent, Boosting the Yen
TradingKey - The Shunto—short for the Spring Wage Offensive—is Japan’s annual nationwide labour-management bargaining event held every spring. Typically, Shunto unfolds in three stages: In the first round, employers discuss potential wage increases; in the second, workers at various companies...
Wed, Mar 12
U.S. February CPI Preview: Is the Era of Stagflation Approaching?
On 12 March 2025, the United States will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February. Market consensus predicts that the year-over-year growth rates for Headline CPI and Core CPI will reach 2.9% and 3.2%, respectively, both lower than the previous figures of 3.0% and 3.3%.
Tue, Mar 11
[IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS] South Korea: The KRW is a One-Way Bet. Downward!
In the medium term (3-12 months), as the USD Index peaks and retreats, coupled with the stabilizing effect of the National Pension Service’s (NPS) FX hedging program, the KRW is likely to enter a range-bound fluctuation.
Tue, Mar 11
[IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS] Canada: Why Shorting the CAD Seems Like a Sure Thing?
Given the uncertainty surrounding Trump-era policies, we evaluate two scenarios: 1) Tariffs avoided or delayed; 2) Broad-based tariffs implemented.
Tue, Mar 11
U.S. February Nonfarm Payroll Commentary: Awaiting the Optimal Timing to Short the Dollar and Go Long on Treasuries
On 7 March 2025, the United States released the Nonfarm Payroll data for February. Nonfarm employment grew by 151,000 jobs, falling short of the market consensus expectation of 160,000.
Mon, Mar 10
ECB March Policy Rate Commentary: Reshaping Expectations for Rate Cuts
Due to heightened uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariff policies and the risk of renewed energy price surges, the ECB revised its forecasts for this year, lowering real GDP growth from 1.4% to 1.2% while raising inflation from 2.1% to 2.3%. This reflects the central bank’s dilemma in determining...
Fri, Mar 7
U.S. February Nonfarm Payroll Preview: The Turning Point in the Labour Market Has Arrived
On 7 March 2025, the United States will release its February Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) data. The market consensus currently anticipates a payroll increase of 160,000 jobs. However, we believe the actual figure will fall short of this expectation and also undershoot the prior month’s reading of 143,000 (
Thu, Mar 6
ECB March Policy Rate Preview: A 25bp Cut is Almost Certain, But the EU Emergency Summit Takes Centre Stage
On 6 March 2025, the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its March policy rate decision. The market widely anticipates a 25-basis-point rate cut, lowering the Deposit Facility Rate to 2.5%. We concur with this expectation.
Wed, Mar 5
US January PCE Commentary: PCE Growth Poised to Ease—Implications for Financial Markets
Given the slowdown in PCE—one of the Federal Reserve’s most closely watched metrics—and early signs of economic weakening, we expect the central bank to cut interest rates 3-4 times by the end of this year, significantly more than the two cuts currently priced into market expectations.
Mon, Mar 3
[IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS] Australia: Will a Hawkish Central Bank Boost the AUD?
The strength of the Australian dollar (AUD) is influenced by both domestic and external factors. On the domestic front, the hawkish stance of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), rising commodity prices and China’s gradual economic recovery will provide support for the AUD. Externally, the USD Index
Mon, Mar 3
[IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS] US: Will the USD Index Decline Irreversibly from Today Onward?
In the short term (0-3 months), the US dollar's trajectory will be driven by three key themes: concerns over reflation, a widening policy rate gap between the Fed and other major central banks and the dollar’s safe-haven appeal coming to the forefront.
Mon, Mar 3
US January PCE Preview: If the pace of Core PCE growth slows, could it trigger the Fed to resume interest rate cuts?
We anticipate that Core PCE will rise by 2.7%, positioning it between the prior month’s value and the market’s consensus estimate.
Thu, Feb 27
[IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS] UK: GBP Will Weaken Against USD While Strengthening Against EUR
On the GBP side of the GBP/USD pair, the UK’s economic recovery, rising inflation and our expectation of smaller-than-anticipated interest rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE) provide support for the pound against non-USD currencies.
Mon, Feb 24
[IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS] Eurozone: Is It Still a Good Time to Short the EUR/USD?
Under the combined influence of potential tariffs, growth disparities between Europe and the US and interest rate differentials, we anticipate a weakening of the euro against the dollar in the short term (0-3 months). In the medium term (3-12 months), we expect the decline of the USD Index to lead t
Wed, Feb 19
Why the Australian Central Bank Won’t Cut Rates so Many Times in 2025?
In line with market expectations and our forecasts, the RBA decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, reducing the policy rate from 4.35% to 4.1%. This marks the first rate cut since the end of the tightening cycle from May 2022 to November 2023.
Wed, Feb 19
Thailand: No Opportunity in the Stock Market, What About the Bond Market?
Looking ahead, although potential tariffs may introduce uncertainty to Thailand's foreign trade, fiscal spending is expected to continue supporting the economy.
Mon, Feb 17
Indonesia: Buy the Stocks and Hedge the Currency
The Indonesian economy has demonstrated signs of recovery following a slowdown in the first three quarters of 2024. The GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2024 also began to rebound compared to the third quarter.
Mon, Feb 17
