美联储和特朗普将在 2025 年发生冲突——预计会出现麻烦的领域
dent总统唐纳德·特朗普和美联储主席杰伊·鲍威尔之间长期存在的紧张关系预计将在 2025 年再次成为焦点，经济政策和制度动态为潜在冲突奠定了基础。
2024 年 11 月连任的唐纳德·特朗普经常批评鲍威尔。这引发了人们对白宫和美联储之间的关系在未来一年可能如何演变的疑问。
整个2024年，特朗普公开攻击鲍威尔的领导力，认为dent应该对美联储的决策拥有更大的影响力。在竞选过程中，特朗普声称鲍威尔“犯了很多错误”，并建议他的政府可以重新审查美联储的独立性。
“显微镜”下的美联储支出
特朗普连任后，鲍威尔强力驳斥了被免职的传言，强调他打算在2026年5月届满的任期内完成任期。然而，即使鲍威尔保住职位，分析师预计政府与美联储之间将再次出现摩擦。
dent任命亿万富翁企业家埃隆·马斯克和商人维韦克·拉马斯瓦米为政府效率部（DOGE）的负责人。两人已承诺彻底改革联邦支出，他们的计划可能包括美联储的重大变革。
马斯克最近在其社交媒体平台 X 上称美联储“人手过多”，暗示可能会裁员。
美联储人员臃肿得荒谬
— Kekius Maximus (@elonmusk) 2024 年 12 月 23 日
According to a report from Yahoo Finance, the Federal Reserve employs approximately 24,000 individuals across the United States, with 86% of its workforce stationed in regional reserve banks.
The headquarters in Washington, D.C., houses about 3,000 employees. Unlike most federal agencies, the Fed operates independently of taxpayer funding, financing itself through revenue generated by government securities.
Despite its independence, critics do not see the Fed’s operational expenses as insignificant. In 2024, its net operating expenses were budgeted at $7.1 billion, roughly 0.1% of the federal government’s total budget. Historically, the Fed has sent excess revenue to the U.S. Treasury, transferring nearly $1 trillion between 2012 and 2021.
Trump’s economic policies clash with the Fed’s plan
Trump recently announced plans to impose steep tariffs: 10% on imports from China and 25% on goods from Mexico and Canada. These measures, aimed at boosting domestic manufacturing, are projected to have significant economic repercussions.
EY Chief Economist Gregory Daco warned that the tariffs could lead to stagflation, marked by slower economic growth and higher inflation. He estimates that the tariffs would reduce US GDP by 1.5% in 2025 while increasing inflation by 0.4%. Financial market volatility could also follow, adding pressure to an economy already grappling with persistent inflation.
However, not all experts share Daco’s concerns about inflation. Former St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard, who served during Trump’s first term, argued that the growth-reducing effects of tariffs might offset any inflationary impacts.
“The detriment to the world economy would outweigh any price effects,” Bullard noted, casting doubt on the notion that tariffs alone would drive inflation higher.
Interest rates in question, again
The Federal Reserve’s December 2024 meeting forecasts suggested a cautious path for interest rates. Markets anticipated that the federal funds rate would drop slightly to 3.9% by December 2025, compared to the current target range of 4.25-4.5%.
However, these projections look rather too optimistic given the potential inflationary pressures from Trump’s economic agenda, including tax cuts, tariffs, and immigration policies.
Financial analysts from the Financial Times noted that the Fed’s cautious stance could diverge from the more aggressive rate-cutting strategies of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England, further complicating the global economic landscape.
Trump’s economic policies, combined with Musk and Ramaswamy’s cost-cutting initiatives, may pose significant challenges for the Federal Reserve. While the Fed has historically operated with substantial independence, tensions with the White House could test that autonomy.
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