经济学家警告欧元区经济增长受到全球贸易战威胁
与美国保持着巨额贸易顺差的欧元区面临着更大的关税风险。经济学家还警告称，中国可能会造成干扰，作为对特朗普政策的回应，廉价商品可能会涌入全球市场。 近 69% 的英国《金融时报》民意调查dent预计美国与欧盟将发生贸易冲突，而 81% 的受访者预计特朗普的回归将严重影响欧元区经济增长。 “特朗普的第二任总统现在是最大的政治和经济风险，”欧亚集团欧洲董事总经理穆吉塔巴·拉赫曼表示。 经济学家预计欧元区 2025 年经济增速仅为 0.9%，连续第三年低于平均水平。这一前景与欧洲央行 (ECB) 最近对dent经济学家进行的一项调查一致，该调查显示了一些下行风险。 由于对“未知”的恐惧蔓延到商业领域，仅仅对关税的预期就可能促使企业推迟投资。 OECD 前高级经济学家约翰·卢埃林 (John Llewellyn) 预测，情况会更加悲观， 欧元区经济今年可能萎缩 1%。 “经济稳定比现代人认识到的要脆弱得多，”他警告说。 在整个欧洲，分析师预测政治分裂可能会使经济格局进一步复杂化。他们中的大多数人认为，德国在 2 月份提前大选之前不太可能建立稳定的政府，而法国在总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙 (Emmanuel Macron)dent于 2027 年结束之前仍处于政治停滞状态。 德国德卡银行的经济学家乌尔里希·凯特将欧洲的困境比作“晚期哈布斯堡帝国”的困境，理由是官僚效率低下和缺乏技术创新。 “欧洲因对其昔日伟大的忧郁回忆而陷入困境，”他补充道。 ⚠️欧元区制造业处境惨淡⚠️贸易战迫在眉睫：欧元区是否应该做好应对冲击的准备？
政治“瘫痪”可能带来国内挑战
欧元区的制造业活动已连续 29 个月保持KIN。
这是自 2011-2012 年欧洲债务危机以来最长的一次。
11 月服务也出现trac..👇 https://t.co/OlSrKmUzsH
European equities have underperformed against their US counterparts, with the Euro Stoxx 600 index trading at a record 40% discount to the S&P 500 based on next year’s forecast earnings. Despite near-record highs in European stock markets, global fund managers remain underweight on European equities, according to a Bank of America survey.
While some analysts hold out hope for a German rebound after February’s elections, others aren’t convinced there’s hope. Marcel Fratzscher, president of DIW, cautioned against expecting a new German government to provide a significant boost to confidence.
Trade negotiations to re-ignite optimism
The majority of economists in FT’s poll, 61%, support ECB President Christine Lagarde’s call for EU policymakers to engage in trade talks with Trump to stave off an all-out trade war. However, opinions are divided on the best approach.
“[The EU] may want to use the threat of retaliation as part of the negotiation. But ultimately, tariffs are a self-inflicted harm, and the EU would be better off not using them,” said Isabelle Mateos y Lago, chief economist at BNP Paribas.
Others are less optimistic about a conciliatory approach. “Trump has the mentality of a playground bully,” remarked Kamil Kovar, senior economist at Moody’s, warning that concessions could encourage more aggressive policies from the US.
Some economists see reasons for hope, backing their optimistic views with declining interest rates and a potential rise in consumer demand could offer modest relief. Additionally, reforms stemming from Germany’s elections could ease fiscal constraints, potentially lifting the country’s constitutional debt brake and spurring investment.
“The psychological depression in Germany could be turned around if a new coalition presents a coherent reform program,” said Moritz Kraemer of LBBW.
Nonetheless, significant challenges remain, with economists calling for coordinated efforts to address both external and internal risks to the Eurozone’s “fragile” recovery.
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