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BoE: Expected to on prolonged hold – Societe Generale
Societe Generale economists report that the Bank of England's (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left Bank Rate at 3.75% with an 8–1 vote. Their base case is for rates to remain unchanged through 2026, though further hikes of 50–75 bps are possible if the US‑Iran conflict persists.Fxstreet
Mon, May 4
ECB: Data risks complicate policy path – Societe Generale
Societe Generale economists highlight that Euro area growth nearly stalled in 1Q, with 0.1% qoq GDP and weak confidence indicators. They argue downside risks to growth are rising even as headline inflation is set to climb further.Fxstreet
Mon, May 4
EUR/USD: Focus shifts to Dollar weakness – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen notes that EUR/USD has nearly returned to pre-war levels as the Euro (EUR) proves resilient and the US Dollar (USD) retreats. Markets expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to hike in June, but Nguyen doubts pricing for three hikes by year-end.Fxstreet
Mon, May 4
Equities: Strong earnings offset Middle East risks – Danske Bank
Danske Research Team reports that equities ended last week higher, led by tech and growth, even as Iran-related risks and higher Oil prices weighed on sentiment. They note a return of negative correlation between equities and bonds, with yields rising alongside stocks.Fxstreet
Mon, May 4
Iranian military warns the US Navy not to approach or enter the Strait of Hormuz
The Unified Command of the Iranian armed forces warned on Monday the US Navy not to approach or enter the Strait of Hormuz. It further stated that it will 'respond harshly’ to any threat at any level and in any part of Iran.Fxstreet
Mon, May 4
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