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China: Oil shock seen contained – Standard Chartered
Standard Chartered’s Hunter Chan and Shuang Ding expect robust external demand to support China’s April industrial production and trade, even as services and construction soften. They see higher Oil prices lifting PPI and energy CPI, while headline CPI stays at 1% year-on-year.
Fxstreet
Mon, May 4
Netherlands: Stockpiling supports manufacturing growth – ABN Amro
ABN Amro's Albert Jan Swart notes that Dutch manufacturing is expanding strongly, with the Nevi Dutch Manufacturing PMI jumping to its highest level since 2022 as companies stockpile due to Middle East supply disruptions.Fxstreet
Mon, May 4
Canada: Trade and jobs seen subdued – TD Securities
TD Securities economists Robert Both and Emma Lawrence project a sharp narrowing in Canada’s March international merchandise trade deficit to CAD 1.5 billion, driven by stronger exports on higher West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and autos.
Fxstreet
Mon, May 4
India: IIP Growth mix signals uneven demand – Societe Generale
Societe Generale’s Kunal Kundu notes that India’s March Index of Industrial Production (IIP) growth slowed to 4.1% year-on-year from 5.2% in February, the weakest in five months, with the eight-core sector contracting and power output softening.Fxstreet
Mon, May 4
UK: Local vote risk for Starmer – Societe Generale
Societe Generale economists flag rising political risk around Prime Minister Keir Starmer ahead of 7 May local elections. A weak result could trigger a leadership challenge, though the lack of a clear successor may delay moves until the September conference.Fxstreet
Mon, May 4
EUR/CHF: Short-term bounce, longer-term decline – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister expects EUR/CHF to rise in coming months as the Euro (EUR) recovers and markets push back Swiss National Bank (SNB) rate hikes, with the bank’s strategy combining verbal intervention and steady rates.
Fxstreet
Mon, May 4
Euro area: Weak confidence clouds activity outlook – Societe Generale
Societe Generale economists note that firm and consumer confidence fell more than expected in April, with Commission indices at multi‑year lows. Despite slightly positive 1Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP), domestic demand appears subdued and credit conditions are tightening.Fxstreet
Mon, May 4
ECB: June leaning shapes Euro outlook – BNY
BNY’s Bob Savage highlights that the European Central Bank (ECB) is now clearly leaning toward a June rate move, contrasting with the Bank of England's (BoE) preference to wait for fuller confirmation. He sees this directional guidance as a break from the prior “policy in a good place” stance.Fxstreet
Mon, May 4
ECB's Villeroy: Critical mass of data needed before tightening policy
In his annual letter to French President Emmanuel Macron on the state of the economy on Monday, European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau argued that the ECB needs gather a "critical mass of data" suggesting that inflation is becoming entrenched before tightening the policyFxstreet
Mon, May 4
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