リビアン（RIVN）2026年第3四半期決算説明会：ガイダンス改善に伴いR2が成長を牽引

主なポイント

• リビアンが発表した2026年第3四半期の売上高は前年同期比38%増の21億5500万ドル、粗利益は1億7600万ドル、売上総利益率は8%となった。
• 同社の生産台数は19,751台、納車台数は19,248台となった。R2はR1や商用バンを上回る販売数を記録し、同社で最も販売台数の多い車種となった。
• ソフトウェア・サービス部門の売上高は前年同期比45%増の6億500万ドルに達した。同部門の粗利益は2億5600万ドル（粗利益率42%）を計上し、そのうち3億5400万ドルはフォルクスワーゲングループとの合弁事業によるものである。
• リビアンは2026年の通期納車台数見通しの下限を引き上げて67,000〜70,000台とし、調整後EBITDA赤字の見通しを17億5000万〜18億5000万ドルに改善させた。
• 経営陣は、第4四半期の納車台数の大半をR2が占め、2026年末時点で自動車部門の粗利益率ランレートが黒字化すると見込んでいるが、第4四半期全体での自動車部門の粗利益黒字化までは予想していない。
• リビアンの第3四半期末時点における現金・現金同等物および短期投資の残高は約55億ドルとなった。条件付きの将来的な資金調達源を含めると、経営陣は利用可能な総流動性と目標とする将来資金を合計で約130億ドルと試算している。

主要財務データ

事業および業績の動向

当四半期における販売台数の主な牽引役はR2であった。リビアンによると、R2ローンチエディションの予約から確定注文への転換率は同社の想定を上回る推移を維持しており、R1およびR2のデモ走行試乗は10万3000回を超えた。ノーマル工場ではR2の第2生産シフトが開始された。

自動車部門の売上高は、納車台数の増加や排出規制クレジット売上の増加がプラスに寄与した。これらは、R2や商用バンの構成比が高まったことによる平均販売価格の低下により一部相殺された。R1の平均販売価格は、同社が標準トリムを廃止し、より高級な市場領域へシフトしたことで上昇した。

自動車部門の粗損失は前年同期の1億3000万ドルから8000万ドルに縮小した。販売台数の増加、1台あたり粗利益率の改善、排出規制クレジット、およびIEEPA関税還付金見込額がこの改善を後押しした。一方で、通常生産時と比較して約1億2000万ドルの増加となった売上原価を含むR2立ち上げ費用が引き続き圧迫要因となった。

ソフトウェア・サービス部門は、フォルクスワーゲングループとの合弁事業、修理・メンテナンスサービス、およびAutonomy+に支えられ、黒字を維持した。経営陣によるとAutonomy+の採用ペースは想定を上回っているが、装着率は公表されなかった。

アマゾンは電動配送バンのフリート拡大を継続した。リビアンは、全輪駆動（AWD）構成や航続距離を30%伸ばした大型バッテリーパックを搭載した、郊外ルート向けの新規派生モデルの納車を開始した。また、アマゾン以外の潜在的な商用顧客との協議も継続していると述べた。

経営陣の見通し（ガイダンス）

経営陣は、第4四半期におけるリビアンの納車台数の大半をR2が占めると見込んでいる。同社はまた、R2の生産拡大に伴い2026年末時点で自動車部門の粗利益ランレートが黒字化すると予想しているが、第4四半期全体で自動車部門の粗利益が黒字化することを意味するものではないと説明した。

リビアンは、ジョージア州の製造施設での建設活動が加速するに伴い、2027年の設備投資額が大幅に増加すると見込んでいる。研究開発費も、自動運転ソフトウェア、自動運転ハードウェア、および車両技術への投資に牽引され、2027年に大きく増加する見通しである。

ドライバー監視下のPoint to Point運転機能の限定リリースは、招待制のAutonomy Early Access Programを通じて2026年後半に予定されている。経営陣は2027年にAutonomy+加入者向けの一般リリースを計画しており、2028年のレベル4機能実現を目標に掲げ続けている。

リスクと注視点

• R2の生産拡大は、リビアンのサプライヤーネットワーク全体における調整された拡大に依存している。経営陣は、最も立ち上げの遅いサプライヤーのペースでしか生産量を増やせないと語った。
• メモリ、原材料、コモディティ、および計算リソースのコスト上昇が、車両の採算性や自動運転投資を圧迫している。
• R2が初期生産段階にあることで固定費回収率が低下し、四半期あたり約1億2000万ドルの売上原価増加要因となった。
• マクロ経済および地政学的情勢は、サプライチェーンの複雑化、コスト増加、不確実性を引き続きもたらしている。
• 約130億ドルの流動性および目標資金の数値には、ウーバー、フォルクスワーゲングループ、および米国エネルギー省からの条件付き将来資金調達が含まれている。
• 2026年の設備投資額の減額は、ジョージア施設の計画投資要件の削減ではなく、支払時期の調整を反映したものである。

アナリストQ&Aの要点

R2のマージンと生産の立ち上げ：経営陣によると、R2は第2四半期において納車1台あたりの売上原価を前四半期比で約1万2000ドル削減することに寄与した。さらなるマージン改善は、増産、固定費吸収、サプライヤーの拡大、および急送輸送費の削減にかかっている。

R2の価格設定とインフレ：リビアンは引き続きR2の価格帯を4万5000ドルから約5万7000ドルの範囲に設定することを目標に掲げている。経営陣は、仕入コスト上昇を相殺する手段として、工場効率の向上、物流の見直し、サプライヤー交渉、部品の再設計および共通化を挙げた。

自動運転戦略：リビアンのLarge Driving Modelは、R1、R2、商用バン、およびロボタクシー用途向けに設計されている。Point to Point機能は、ドライバーの監視下で市街地、信号機、高速道路のジャンクションに及ぶルートに対応する。経営陣は、この機能が車両需要と市場シェア拡大の推進力になり得るとみている。

Third Dimension AIの買収：リビアンは、この買収によりクローズド・ループ・シミュレーションが強化され、より多くのシナリオ検証、障害注入、自動運転モデルの迅速な改善が可能になると述べた。

フォルクスワーゲンとの合弁事業：合弁事業の技術を採用する最初の車両は、2027年登場予定のフォルクスワーゲンのID.1となる見込みである。リビアンは、本プログラムを自社ブランドや米国市場の枠を超えて電気アーキテクチャおよびソフトウェア能力を実証するものと位置づけている。

R1の位置づけ：経営陣はR1を量産型の低価格モデルとして扱う意図はない。リビアンはR1をプレミアムフラッグシップとして位置づけており、標準トリムの廃止に伴い平均販売価格が上昇すると予想している。

決算説明会トランスクリプト全文

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決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Chip Newcom

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us for Rivian's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. Today, I'm joined by RJ Scaringe, our Founder and CEO; Claire McDonough, our Chief Financial Officer; Javier Varela, our Chief Operations Officer; and Derek Mulvey, our Vice President of Finance, who will be named Interim CFO, effective tomorrow.

Before we begin, matters discussed on this call, including comments and responses to questions, reflect management's views as of today. We will also be making statements related to our business, operations and financial performance that may be considered forward-looking statements under federal securities law. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. These risks and uncertainties are described in our SEC filings and the presentation we filed with the SEC today.

During this call, we will discuss both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of historical non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures is provided in our earnings presentation and press release. Just before the earnings call, we posted our earnings presentation, which includes an overview of our progress over the recent months. I encourage you to read it for additional details around some of the items that we will cover on today's call.

Following our prepared remarks, we will be taking questions from sell-side analysts. In the interest of keeping the call to 1 hour, we would ask these analysts to limit any follow-on questions to one.

With that, I'll turn the call over to RJ.

Robert Scaringe

Thanks, Chip. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us for today's call. We had a great third quarter. We achieved record production volumes in Normal as we continue to ramp R2 manufacturing. We also had record deliveries, with R2 delivering much of that gain. In fact, R2 is already our best-selling vehicle by volume, outselling both R1 and EDV in the third quarter. I'm proud of how our team has come together to scale our manufacturing, sales and service operations. We are also advancing our technology road map, and I look forward to showcasing that progress at our Autonomy and AI Day on December 9.

Since its launch in June, we've seen all types of potential customers take R2 for a drive. The feedback on R2 has been outstanding. In the third quarter, we hosted over 103,000 R1 and R2 demo drives, surpassing the record we set in the second quarter. Reservation conversion rates for the launch edition R2 remained higher in the quarter than our expectations. We are really excited for the launch of additional variants in the coming months.

R2 continues to generate rave reviews and awards from media and recently won Top Gear's SUV of the Year Award for 2027, with more awards to come. Amazon continues to expand its fleet of electric delivery vans across North America. Earlier this month, we began delivering new variants that are specifically designed to expand route coverage into more rural networks, including an all-wheel drive configuration as well as a larger battery pack that offers 30% more range.

Turning to our manufacturing operations. Our team in Normal continues to ramp R2 production. The second R2 shift has started, and we expect our manufacturing run rate to increase over the coming quarters. In Georgia, construction of our next manufacturing site is progressing well.

Regarding our technology road map, Autonomy remains one of the most important areas of investment at Rivian. We continue to see strong momentum in our Autonomy+ offering, available on every R2 and R1 starting with the 2025 model year, with take rates trending ahead of our expectations. Today, every vehicle with Autonomy+ is capable of hands-free driving on millions of miles of roads.

Our next milestone is our Point to Point feature. This means customers can enter an address and their vehicle will follow the route from start to finish, handling city streets, stoplights, highway interchanges and everything in between with driver supervision. A limited rollout of Point to Point is expected to begin later this year with our invitation-only Autonomy Early Access Program, with a general release to all Autonomy+ subscribers in 2027. We believe Point to Point capabilities are going to be an important purchase criteria for customers and is becoming a driver of market share.

We continue to make progress on our partnership with Uber. We remain on track and expect to achieve our next milestone by the end of this year, which is expected to unlock an additional $250 million of equity investment from Uber.

Additionally, last week, we announced the acquisition of Third Dimension AI to support our Autonomy development and our associated closed-loop simulation efforts. With the Rivian Assistant, we have developed a smarter, more customizable AI-defined vehicle experience for all R1 and R2 owners. In our October OTA, we added Gmail integration, Rivian Assistant, and we look forward to sharing more at our upcoming Autonomy and AI Day.

Dressing up our vehicles for Halloween is a highlight to our customers every year. This October, we collaborated with Sony Pictures and Bill Murray to bring the Ghostbusters universe to life on Rivian vehicles with Halloween Mode. This is a perfect demonstration of how the level of deep vertical integration across hardware and software allows us to release immersive features to our customers at speed.

Finally, I want to take a moment to thank Claire for all of her contributions to Rivian over the last 6 years. On a personal level, Claire has been an incredible partner and friend throughout this journey. I know I speak for the whole team when I say we wish you nothing but the best in your next chapter. I'm also excited to work with Derek as he steps into the interim CFO role.

In closing, I want to thank our team for their continued execution in the third quarter. We are laying the foundations for a future that we believe will be fully electric, autonomous and AI-defined. I could not be more excited about the opportunity ahead for Rivian.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Claire to cover our third quarter results.

Claire McDonough

Thank you, RJ, and good afternoon, everyone. As many of you saw last month, I decided to step down as Rivian's CFO to head back to the East Coast to be closer to my family and pursue a new opportunity. It has been the highlight of my career to help build Rivian's financial foundation alongside RJ and our teams, and I'm stepping away with complete confidence in this company's trajectory, its mission and the strength of the team that will carry it forward.

Turning to the results of the third quarter. Our consolidated revenue was $2.155 billion, a 38% increase over the same quarter last year. Consolidated gross profit was $176 million, and our gross profit margin was 8%. Gross profit included $166 million of depreciation and amortization and $28 million of stock-based compensation expense. Adjusted EBITDA losses for the third quarter were $435 million, driven by our $176 million of gross profit and increased adjusted operating expenses as we scale our sales, marketing and service operations to support R2 volumes and invest in our Autonomy road map.

In the third quarter, we produced 19,751 vehicles at our plant in Normal, Illinois and delivered 19,248 vehicles. Production and delivery results for the quarter were in line with our expectations, with R2 becoming our best-selling vehicle by volume in the third quarter. Our $1.55 billion of automotive revenue, a 36% increase over the same quarter last year, were primarily driven by a 46% increase in vehicle deliveries and $81 million of regulatory credits, partially offset by a decline in average selling prices from a higher mix of R2 and commercial van deliveries, while R1 average selling prices increased due to mix improvements.

Automotive gross profit loss was $80 million compared to gross profit loss of $130 million in the same quarter last year, a $50 million improvement due primarily to increases in delivery volumes at an improved per unit margin, an increase in revenues related to automotive regulatory credits and an IEEPA tariff refund receivable, partially offset by costs related to the ramp of R2 production. In the quarter, we recognized approximately $120 million in incremental cost of revenue due to the ramp of R2 production as compared to production at more normalized levels. While current macro and geopolitical factors are creating added complexity, cost and uncertainty, our team continues to work hard to manage supply chain risks and increasing commodity and memory costs.

Our Software and Services segment reported another strong quarter. During the third quarter, the segment generated $605 million of revenue, a 45% year-over-year increase, primarily due to increases in vehicle electrical architecture and software development services by the joint venture, vehicle repair and maintenance services and Autonomy+, offset by lower remarketing sales. $354 million, or approximately 60% of Software and Services revenue, was attributable to our joint venture with Volkswagen Group. Software and Services gross profit was $256 million, a 42% margin, due to better-than-expected mix of revenues from more profitable revenue streams.

With that, I'll hand the call over to Derek to walk through our business outlook and capital road map.

Derek Mulvey

Thanks, Claire. It's been a privilege to work alongside you, and I'm excited to step into the interim CFO role and build on the foundation you've established.

Turning to our liquidity and balance sheet. We ended the third quarter with approximately $5.5 billion in cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments. In addition to this balance, on October 7, we announced the funding of our $1 billion 10-year term loan facility with Volkswagen Group at a fixed interest rate of 6%. To date, we've received $5.3 billion of the $5.8 billion in expected capital commitments associated with the joint venture, with the remaining $460 million anticipated in late 2027.

Additionally, we expect to achieve our second milestone under the Uber partnership later this year, which will trigger an additional $250 million equity investment. When factoring in our current liquidity, expected capital from Uber, Volkswagen and our Department of Energy loan, all of which are subject to certain conditions, our total available liquidity and targeted future capital would be approximately $13 billion.

Turning to our outlook. We are improving our full year delivery guidance from 65,000 to 70,000 units to 67,000 to 70,000 units. In its first full quarter of sales, R2 outsold R1 and our commercial vans. And in the fourth quarter, we expect R2 to represent the majority of our total delivery volume.

We are making significant strides to drive down our Automotive cost per unit, and we're already seeing the benefit of introducing R2 into our Normal production facility. While new vehicle launch complexities in addition to rising costs of core components have and we anticipate will continue to impact our profitability, we expect that R2 will help us achieve a positive Automotive gross margin exit rate for the year. This would establish a strong foundation for continued margin expansion as R2 ramps through 2027.

For full year 2026, we now expect our adjusted EBITDA losses to be between $1.85 billion and $1.75 billion. At the midpoint, this represents a $100 million improvement, driven by favorable regulatory credit revenue, an IEEPA tariff receivable and our expected increased delivery volume.

As RJ outlined, we are making rapid progress in our Autonomy road map and are excited to launch our Point to Point feature on a limited basis later this year. We anticipate the pace of our R&D investment in the strategic area to accelerate in the coming years as we advance our Large Driving Model and progress advanced Autonomy development across our consumer vehicles and robotaxi applications. We believe Autonomy is a primary product differentiator, market share driver and long-term value creator.

Finally, we're lowering our 2026 capital expenditure guidance by $300 million at the midpoint due to a shift in timing of certain capital spend. This brings our revised 2026 CapEx range to $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion. Looking ahead to 2027, we expect a meaningful year-over-year step-up in CapEx as construction activity ramps in our Georgia manufacturing facility.

In closing, I'd like to thank our teams across the company for their execution in the third quarter. We remain confident that R2 and our technology road map will be truly transformative for the growth and profitability of our business.

With that, I'd like to turn the call back over to the operator to open the line for Q&A.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from George Gianarikas with Canaccord Genuity.

質疑応答

George Gianarikas

I just want to ask first on Autonomy. How leverageable is your platform to the commercial vehicles over time?

Robert Scaringe

George, the Autonomy platform is being built around what we call our Large Driving Model. And so Large Driving Model is a foundation model. It's a large parameter model that we're training, and it's very adaptable to different vehicle form factors and applications. And so that's inclusive of R1, R2 and of course, our commercial vehicles.

And so as we think about the Autonomy road map in different ways that we can use this to benefit the business, it, of course, has implications on our consumer business with the big milestone coming up with our Point to Point features, but it also has applications in robotaxi. And of course, this is part of our partnership with Uber with the 2028 launch for that. And then there's a number of applications in the commercial space as part of our vans program.

George Gianarikas

And maybe just as a financial follow-up, just to make sure we heard that correctly. You mentioned that -- I think that Auto gross margins should be positive exiting the year. Does that mean we should expect a full quarter of positive Auto gross margins or just sort of a run rate in December?

Derek Mulvey

Thanks, George. The way we phrased it in the prepared remarks was that we intend to exit the quarter at an Automotive gross profit. So I wouldn't expect the full quarter, but it does set us up really well as we continue to ramp R2 and we think about the progression we see through 2027 for the year.

Operator

Our next question comes from Joseph Spak from UBS.

Joseph Spak

Congratulations to both Claire and Derek. Claire, it's great working with you over the years and Derek, and congrats. First, you mentioned this $120 million of incremental cost of revenues due to the ramp. But that's not really cost of good, right? So I guess, what I'm wondering if you could help us understand is today's realized pricing and mix, like what is the R2 contribution margin before those launch efficiencies and the fixed cost absorption? Because then, I think you get a better sense of if we add back some of those inefficiencies, what, for lack of a better term, a mature gross margin would be.

Derek Mulvey

Yes. Thanks, Joe. So the $120 million we quoted really is comparing where our cost structure is today as we think about our conversion costs, our depreciation in relation to what our 2-shift operation should be performing at. And so that's just really the effect of not having a full rate of production at a 2-shift operation today. In addition, that $120 million includes some of the things like expedited freight and some other costs that we expect to wind off as we continue to scale.

I think when you look at R2 today, in the second quarter, we saw about a $12,000 per unit step down in cost of goods sold per unit delivered. And I think that is -- the biggest driver of that is introducing R2. One is R2 is a lower-cost product, but two is R2 is benefiting from a scale perspective within Normal. As we step back and you look at our total Automotive gross profit, excluding regulatory credits, on a cash basis, that was positive for the quarter, and we expect that momentum to continue as we scale and ramp R2.

Joseph Spak

Okay. And I guess just the second question, maybe building off the first one is, since you announced R2 pricing in March earlier this year, there's been a lot of inflation, whether it's memory, PCB, other electronics, steel, copper. I guess aluminum looks pretty flat. So maybe that matters less today with the launch additions. But I was wondering if you could give us any anecdotes as to sort of how you're looking for or have been able to find engineering or manufacturing efficiencies or other offsets to be able to maintain those targeted gross margins for the new vehicle?

Robert Scaringe

Well, thanks, Joe. A big part of our engineering team is working on not only ramping production and achieving all the volume that the Normal facility is capable of, but also looking at what further improvements we can make to the vehicle. Some of those will be captured in the vehicles produced in Stanton Springs in our Georgia facility, but a number of those are going to be flowing into the vehicle over the coming months and quarters.

And of course, as you said, with some of the commodity pricing being a lot higher than what we expected, I think memory is a really important call out there. We've really been focused to find other mechanisms to offset that and to enable us to still deliver on the various trims that we've talked about, the base trim starting at $45,000 and the top spec trim being at about $57,000.

And so the team is making great progress in that. And it's really -- in terms of examples, it's across the board. It's how we're -- it's details within the plant, how we're operating the plant. It's looking at improvements in packaging for logistics for moving parts from suppliers to our plant. And then it's down to working really closely with our supplier partners on identifying further cost optimizations in the component level really that don't impact the performance of the capabilities of the vehicle that are -- that often is part consolidation or part elimination through redesign of the components. But the team has really done an outstanding job of hunting for and looking for those opportunities, and we've got a real full court press focused on that.

Operator

Our next question comes from Mark Delaney with Goldman Sachs.

Mark Delaney

Claire, thanks for all your help. Wishing you the best going forward. And Derek, congratulations on the expanded responsibilities. I was hoping to better understand what's going on with the R2 ramp. And nice to see the good momentum you just reported and a number of positive comments that you made that you're seeing with that product.

Can you share more on what you think are the key factors that will determine the pace of R2 delivery growth in 4Q and '27? And how much is it about converting on those record number of demo drives and positive media reviews into new R2 orders? Or is it more about ramping up the supply chain and manufacturing?

Robert Scaringe

Of course, launching a vehicle is a lot of moving components. And I think often, the focus and attention is directed at the plant at the manufacturing operations. And of course, that's a huge part of this.

But I do want to really call out the importance of also ramping the supply base. And in the case of R2, we have a number of new suppliers. We took an aggressive approach of reducing our supply chain complexity to have a smaller set of Tier 1 suppliers into the business.

And so we can only ramp as fast as our slowest ramping supplier. And that's not to say there's like an acute challenge with a single supplier, but rather, the ramp-up requires each of the suppliers to ramp, and they need to be highly coordinated.

So that's something we're very focused on. Javier is joining us on the call, I'm going to invite him to have some comments here as well. But our supply chain team, our overall logistics team has been working very closely together to make sure that this ramp is smooth.

Javier Varela

Yes, indeed, RJ, I've been involved in many launches across all my career. And supply chain is always a complex part of the launch as we already flagged from day 1, bringing up hundreds of suppliers. And their Tier 2 and the Tier 3 is an immense task. What we are always doing is identifying whether the suppliers need some support, and we have special teams to help them to support our scale. That's the focus area, scaling our supply chain.

Mark Delaney

My other question was on Autonomy+ and better understanding the impact it may be having on the business. Maybe you can give a bit more color on how impactful Autonomy+ was in that 45% year-over-year growth in the Software, Services and Other segment? And when you talk to people who are buying Rivian vehicles, are they telling you that Autonomy+ is one of the key reasons that they're making that decision?

Robert Scaringe

Yes. As we said in the opening remarks, Autonomy+, the take rate on Autonomy+ has exceeded our expectations, and we're quite encouraged by it. As has been said, Autonomy+, the core feature within it is what we call Universal Hands-Free, which is a hands-free driving capability that can be used on millions of miles across the United States.

What's coming has us even more excited, and that's our Point to Point capability. And that's where in addition to being hands-free, the vehicle can navigate entirely through the destinations. So you plug the address in and you can navigate through 4-way stops through complex interchanges, highway on- and off-ramps. And we think that will start to really create new levels of demand and new levels of interest.

And today, in the market, there's really only one other product that has that, of course, with Tesla's FSD. And so this for us is an important capability. We think it becomes even more important over the coming quarters, and I would say, years as more and more customers get exposed to this and really think of it as a core purchase criteria for the vehicle.

Operator

Our next question comes from Dan Levy with Barclays.

Dan Levy

I wanted to ask -- first of all, Claire, congratulations. And Derek, congratulations to both of you on your new roles. Wanted to ask about EDV. You had another quarterly record in terms of Amazon revenue. If you could just, again, help us unpack the upside there?

But maybe you could also talk about some of the upside we're seeing potentially with other customers. And you've probably seen, there's some images that went around of an EDV wrapped with another company out there, Walmart. Just maybe, you could talk about the potential for uptake with other companies on EDV and if Amazon is finally driving this?

Robert Scaringe

Thanks, Dan. The EDV product, it's exciting to watch. It's something we've really optimized around enabling and really driving an advantaged cost structure. And so we've seen Amazon as they've ramped from the early years of this program up through this year where they've now had a large fleet deployed. They have lots of data on how the vehicle is performing. And it's creating like true and very real structural cost advantages that are leading into -- leading Amazon to double down to continue to buy more vehicles.

And so as you've heard from us in previous calls, this year, we have seen a significant step-up in the level of demand from Amazon. And that's a direct reflection of the advantages that our EDV platform provides to commercial operators. And so with that said, we do see other commercial operators as they start to really look at ways to drive more efficiency into the business start to look at the EDV. We're excited for those potential future customers on this program as well.

Dan Levy

Great. As a follow-up, I wanted to ask about the JV with Volkswagen on network architecture and the potential to expand that to others. Maybe you could just talk about how that JV is progressing? And just as the technology goes into your vehicle and their vehicles, what are you potentially going to hear from other automakers that might want to adopt this?

Robert Scaringe

Well, the first real output from the joint venture is going to be launching next year. So this is the Volkswagen ID.1 product. This is a roughly EUR 20,000 EV that Volkswagen is producing for Europe. And so we're really excited about that. It's a wonderful way to demonstrate the capabilities of our technology outside of Rivian brand and outside the U.S. market.

Importantly, this is -- being in Europe, this is a vehicle that is going to be competing directly against not only European manufacturers, but also Chinese manufacturers. And we're very confident in the capability of the technology and the efficiency or the cost efficiency of being able to deliver a really broad set and impressive set of features in a vehicle at that price point.

And so I've said this before, but we think of that vehicle as really a billboard for the capability. It really demonstrates what can be done. And so the technology we've developed, we certainly think about this as having applications not only beyond Rivian, but also beyond this existing joint venture and into other applications with other manufacturers. But our focus to date has been heads down on both the Rivian programs as well as the Volkswagen Group programs, the first of which, as I said, is the ID.1.

Operator

Our next question comes from Itay Michaeli with TD Cowen.

Itay Michaeli

Claire, Derek, congrats to you both, and best wishes. Maybe a first question, going back to Autonomy+. And it's becoming a driver -- a major driver of demand for you. I'm curious whether you think consumers are sort of coming to purchase the vehicles with a Point to Point feature in the future in mind? Or do you think that when you launch Point to Point, could that be another step function improvement in demand and maybe similarly for the Gen 3 hardware when that's launched as well?

Robert Scaringe

I think in a very broad sense, to date, Autonomy has not been a major driver for most customers in the United States. That's sort of evidenced by most of the vehicles that are being sold today do not have very much autonomous capability. I do think that we're at the base of a very significant inflection point, though, where we're going to start to see a much broader set of customers start to really look for advanced capabilities.

And with that, I think Point to Point is really, in many ways, the unlock for that where it really becomes, in some ways, like a magical experience where you get into the vehicle and the cognitive load to have to operate the vehicle and navigate the vehicle is dramatically reduced because you simply have to put in your destination, and the vehicle can handle what happens in between.

And so this has been -- as we've talked on previous calls, this has been a major focus for us, a major -- and when I say that, that's a major focus of resources, both dollars on the R&D side as well as people. We've designed our architecture inclusive of the sensor set, our compute topology, the way we're developing a system around this neural net-based foundation model and the whole business to really support both progress around the timing, but specifically progress towards some of these key milestones or key steps, with Point to Point being the first of multiple key steps that ultimately lead to the Level 4 capability that we're planning for 2028.

Itay Michaeli

Terrific. Okay. And a quick follow-up. Maybe touch upon just the acquisition of Third Dimension. Does that kind of help you get to Level 4? Does it maybe expand the scope of ODD? Just kind of curious a bit on kind of what this does post the acquisition.

Robert Scaringe

Yes. It's an exciting addition to the team. We're really pleased to have completed this acquisition. And when we look at development of these higher levels of autonomy and really building them around a model-based approach, so an AI-based approach versus the Autonomy 1.0 approach of using a more deterministic rules-based approach, a key part of that is what we call the eval process, how we're evaluating the model. And you can do that in an open-loop way by putting it on vehicles and driving those vehicles.

And it's obviously proven. We've seen that -- Rivian has done that and many other companies use that approach, and it will continue to be used. But in addition, we want to create closed-loop mechanisms whereby we can test the model in real-life conditions or simulated conditions and then make lots and lots and lots of iterations on those conditions to do fault injection, to do unique circumstance injection into the simulations. And so the acquisition of Third Dimension is supporting the simulation work that we've been building on within the company and the ability to have more rapid closed-loop simulations that allow us to deploy models more rapidly and then, of course, make progress in advancing the models more rapidly.

Operator

Our next question comes from Alex Perry with BofA.

Alexander Perry

I definitely want to echo the congrats to Claire and Derek as well. I guess, maybe just following up on Point to Point. With the Autonomy Early Access Program beginning in December, what do you need to see from that group before moving to a broader 2027 release? Is this to gather data and sort of validate the incident profile here? Would love to just get your thoughts on what you need to see there.

Robert Scaringe

I think the Early Access Program is -- it's a very common approach for newer technologies to get feedback from a broad spectrum of users. And that's everything from the functionality features to the interface and how the features deploy, how they're actualized, what the UI looks like. And so this Early Access Program allows us to do that. It gives us the opportunity to get really rich and diverse feedback from a broad set of customers in different driving environments and different geographies. So that was how it's designed. And of course, as you said, that sets us up to then have the full broad release across all Autonomy+ subscribers in the 2027 time frame.

Alexander Perry

Perfect. And then I guess, I wanted to ask about how the edge cases that you're trying to solve for here at first. We've heard about pickup/drop-off being a little bit of an edge case that's tougher to solve. But I would love to just get your -- when you're first launching Point to Point, what will the functionality sort of really entail? And then how do you expect it to progress over time?

Robert Scaringe

Yes. I mean, there's -- I guess when you think about edge cases, there's a broad spectrum of types of edge cases. The pickup/drop-off is particularly important for robotaxi or Level 4 applications. That's beyond what we're -- I'd say even more important when we start to look at deployment of our Uber partnership in 2028. And I'm sure many have experienced this, the challenges of, let's say, dropping someone off or picking someone up in a highly urban environment where there's no place for the vehicle to pull off. So you're sort of stopping in lane on the road. Those are challenging situations and challenging as we even deploy vehicles today.

But as it pertains to the consumer vehicles and Point to Point, some of those are solved simply through this being a supervised product. So if it's a very complex pickup or drop-off situation, you have the benefit of someone in the driver's seat. And this is where really being thoughtful on the UI in that situation is important, so what does the vehicle do when it gets to destination and how does it indicate to the person in the driver's seat. And we're working really hard to make sure all those -- the UI and the thinking about what that interface feels like and experiencing the product is really seamless and easy to use and understand.

Operator

Our next question comes from Shreyas Patil with Wolfe Research.

Shreyas Patil

Curious on R&D, I think it was up 7% year-over-year, excluding stock comp. I know that's an important cost item. I know an important element there is the cost for leasing AI compute capacity for training. And I'm curious, what you're seeing in terms of pricing and available capacity? We are seeing industry-wide token prices move higher, but just curious, what you're seeing on the ground?

Derek Mulvey

Yes. Thanks. We are seeing some increased pricing as we think about leasing compute. With that said, as we think about the -- looking at Q3 this year to Q4, we do expect a low double-digit growth rate in R&D. And as you look at next year, we do expect our R&D line to grow more significantly in '27 than it did in '26. This is really all driven by our strategic investments in Autonomy software, Autonomy hardware and some vehicle technologies. And so we continue to be efficient in our uses of compute, but I think we expect to continue to expand that as we think about next year and the progress we're making on our Large Driving Model.

Shreyas Patil

Okay. And then maybe on input costs, I think you alluded to that as being a headwind. I'm just curious, in terms of some of the -- if you can drill down more specifically on some of the actions you're taking to try and mitigate that, whether it's coming from higher steel or freight and logistics, DRAM? Maybe if you could just provide a little more color.

Robert Scaringe

Yes, there are so many components that go into a vehicle. And so the big, big categories, of course, bill of materials, then you have conversion costs, cost to build the vehicle in the plant, and you have logistics costs. And so across each of those categories, we have organized teams of people that are working to identify opportunities. And the opportunities we're identifying, as I described before, range from things that we can deploy in the very near term. So these are ideas that can be deployed within weeks to then ideas that require years of time, meaning like significant redesign or selection of new suppliers.

And so this is something in any scenario, we'd be fighting and pushing for. But I think to the point of your question, this is of even more importance given some of the headwinds that have emerged around raw material costs and memory costs. But we continue to make progress on that.

I think the most important very near-term thing that we're doing is the ramp is focusing on getting better fixed cost absorption through getting more output from the plant that's been installed and from the team that's working those lines. And so that's everything from getting our suppliers ramped, as you heard from Derek and I earlier, Derek and Javier earlier, and then making sure that we can very efficiently convert all those components from suppliers into our vehicles in the plant.

Shreyas Patil

Okay. And maybe if I could just squeeze a last quick one. And I apologize if you had mentioned it previously, but the reduction in CapEx for this year, now $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion, just what's driving that?

Derek Mulvey

Yes, Shreyas. The reduction in CapEx is mostly driven by timing, just some timing shift. As we look at our spend related to our Georgia facility, at the moment, it's a very lumpy sequencing of spend as you think about large equipment purchases and large contracts. And so as those move from an invoice or payment perspective or timing perspective by a few weeks, it shifts between quarters. So I characterize the move, the lowering of the CapEx strictly from a timing perspective.

Operator

Our next question comes from Edison Yu with Deutsche Bank.

Xin Yu

Great. And congrats, Claire and Derek. First question, we saw some media reporting lately about basically one of your vehicles badged with Walmart on it. Curious if you can comment at all if this is a testing phase or part of some type of enterprise deal?

Robert Scaringe

Yes. As I mentioned earlier, we -- the commercial van program, we continue to have discussions with customers outside of Amazon. Of course, our partnership with Amazon continues to progress and advance in extremely positive ways. This year represented a big step-up in volume with them. And it is really a reflection of the performance and cost advantages enabled by this platform. And so we do continue to look for and work with other potential partners as we go forward.

Xin Yu

Understood. Follow-up, I wanted to ask about Third Dimension. I think my crude understanding is that it sort of turns video, kind of regular video into like a 3D copy of the world of sorts. Is that kind of a very simplistic understanding of what it does? And then following up on that, are there any kind of capabilities out there in addition to this that you think you need to kind of complete the autonomy stack?

Robert Scaringe

Sure. I talked about a little bit before, but the Third Dimension acquisition is something we're really excited about. It bolsters our simulation efforts within the business and helps us create efficient closed-loop mechanisms by which we can validate and improve on our models. And these are efforts that, of course, are underway within the business already. This is a great way for us to help accelerate some of that work. And as you think about simulation and the importance of simulation, this becomes an even -- using simulation for validation becomes an even more important element for rapidly iterating on the model architecture and model design.

Operator

Our next question comes from Tobias Beith with Rothschild & Co Redburn.

Tobias Beith

I have just one question, please. Over the next 2 to 3 years, what are your priorities for increasing brand awareness or brand equity? And how will you measure whether those efforts are translating into customer acquisition and revenue growth?

Robert Scaringe

Well, that's a great question, Tobey. We're really excited with the launch of R2 to have a product now that has a much broader and wider aperture for customers. Whereas, of course, R1 was our handshake with the world. It is a great product to introduce the Rivian brand to consumers. But by virtue of its price point, by virtue of being our flagship product, it's price made it not something that many customers would be considering.

And so with the R2, the price starting at $45,000 and going up through mid- to high $50,000s puts it right back sort of overlapping with the average price of a new car in the United States in the most popular segment, the midsized crossover and SUV segment. And so that on its own is going to lead to more vehicles on the road, which, of course, will create more awareness.

But bolstering not just the vehicle and its increased presence on the roads is we're doing a bunch of really creative ways of getting the brand out there. Maybe the most recent one is a good demonstration of this was what we did for Halloween this year. Of course, we've been doing Halloween Mode since we launched the company. And each year, we think of really creative ways to do fun things to bring a lot of excitement to customers.

But this year, we partnered with Sony and created a Halloween Mode where we had Ghostbusters integrated to the vehicle. Of course, working close with Bill Murray to do this was a lot of fun. But these are ways we can really cut across culture, cut across a wide spread of demographics and create awareness of the brand, as you noted.

Operator

Our next question comes from Rajat Gupta with JPMorgan. Our next question comes from Chris Pierce with Needham.

Christopher Pierce

Just a quick one too. Can you just kind of talk to the LiDAR variant of the R2? I believe originally, it was supposed to be coming out to consumers this year. I think the term delay might be a bit harsh, but now it's employee-only for testing or for purchase. I just kind of want to understand if there was some sort of component delay or just sort of the initial launch variant was better than expected? I'm just kind of curious, what drove that decision?

Robert Scaringe

Well, thanks, Chris. On our Autonomy platform, I mentioned before the Large Driving Model. And so Large Driving Model is something that's going to be deployed across all of our R2 vehicles, including, of course, launch edition and then model 2025 R1s with model 2025 or newer. And so importantly, that means Point to Point is going to be available in all those vehicles and the capabilities that, that entails, we think, are quite exciting.

The next hardware generation, which includes our RAP1 processor, which is, for each processor, 800 TOPS, we have 2 of those for 1,600 TOPS in the vehicle. We marry that with an enhanced perception platform that includes camera, radar and as you pointed out, a LiDAR sensor. That, as you said, is going through employee -- like an employee program late this year and validation builds and validation process this year.

And then into 2027, that vehicle will be available. But we're really excited about what LDM, the Large Driving Model, represents and what that can bring to everything from, as I said, model year 2025 R1, existing R2 and then future R2.

Christopher Pierce

Okay. Perfect. And then you talked about order book to purchase conversion, I think, just kind of using conversion broadly. Can you talk about test drives to order book conversion, given how test drives are up so much sequentially with the launch of the R2? Like what's -- is it that -- I guess, just sort of what are you seeing there? And is the long way kind of -- maybe long is not the right word, but are people kind of converting from test drives to the order book at what kind of rate versus the R1? Or just any color you can share there?

Robert Scaringe

I mean, the most interesting is we launched with the launch variant. And so that's our premium performance trim. And we had certain assumptions around what the conversion for that would be, recognizing it's the most expensive R2. And the conversion to date has exceeded our expectations, which is really encouraging. That doesn't take away from how excited we are for the other trims to also come in. But it's outstanding to see so many folks excited just to get into an R2 and also be in the launch configuration.

With regards to test drives, I'm glad you called it out. This is an important metric for us, and we did see a significant step-up in test drives really as a result of having R2 available and the level of excitement from folks to get in and experience the vehicle.

Operator

Our next question comes from Tom Narayan with RBC.

Gautam Narayan

Good luck, Claire. Congrats, Derek. First question is on the R2. You've been selling the kind of higher-end trims. But then next year, you're going to have the kind of lower-end trims with -- in the lower battery range. Just curious, what you think about consumer demand for that -- for those products with the lower battery range, especially in light of, I guess, what model-wise, a battery range is relative to price? And then also the impact on margins for that lower end -- lower trim R2? And then I have a follow-up.

Robert Scaringe

Yes. As I said, we're excited about all the different trends. There's sort of two big variables to think about in the different configurations. So we have a premium trim and then a standard trim. That's the -- that's like the interior appointments, the rear drop glass that links to that, a few other features within the vehicle.

And then there's a propulsion variation. So we have all-wheel drive performance, we have all-wheel drive base, and then we have a rear-wheel drive variant. And then within the rear-wheel drive variant, we have a larger pack and a smaller pack. And so really, the reason we create all those variances is because we want to make sure we cover the demand curve. So cover -- give customers enough choices across performance, range, price point, content, such that we can capture customers from that $45,000 price point all the way up to the $57,000 price point.

And from a unit economics point of view, I think we have to recognize that when we launch, as Derek described earlier, the lack of volume and the ramp-up just because the nature of ramping on a single shift ramping suppliers means that our ability to absorb fixed costs, that's depreciation and that's the labor cost within the plant is more limited. And as we grow volume, the actual cost structure of the vehicle comes down quite considerably because those fixed elements of costs get absorbed by a lot more volume.

And so we've been able to very intentionally sequence the nature of launching with a high-price variant and then bringing in these other trims as our volume grows, such that in the end, it supports a healthy, positive gross margin for the R2 business. And of course, given its volume, that really drives the financial performance of Rivian overall.

Gautam Narayan

Got it. And then my follow-up is on Autonomy. I think you said the take rates for hands-free are better than what you've expected. I mean, can you give us a sense of what those take rates could be? I mean, we know Tesla FSD is around 75%. I mean, is it in that order of magnitude?

And then do you see Point to Point with higher pricing than your current Autonomy product? Tesla FSD is around $99 a month, which suggests that consumers are willing to pay more for autonomy, at least at that quality.

Robert Scaringe

Well, I said this earlier, and I do think it's an important to call out. We really think of Point to Point as being almost an inflection point in terms of the type of experience you can have with autonomy. Hands-free as it is today is you can use any road -- effectively any road that has lines, any marked road. So it's millions of miles of roads today, but it's not navigating you off exits, on to urban environments, through stoplights and through 4-way stops and those sorts of things.

But Point to Point does do that. And with Point to Point, it creates this much easier experience where it takes the cognitive load of having to figure out what you're going to do, navigating, thinking, paying attention to which road you're supposed to turn, all those things sort of fade away. And there's a really nice experience. I mean, I'm driving it every day. It's wonderful on my commute in and out of the office.

And so our view is that, that is going to become a big driver of demand. And I think it's unclear how quickly the whole, call it, the whole U.S. market and the whole automotive market starts to shift to really wanting this and this being a major purchase criteria. But certainly, we're at the front end of an inflection point where as more and more people are exposed to what this can do, we think it's going to become very important.

And it's precisely because of that, that for the last few years, we've been investing heavily in building this capability, going back to kicking off an in-house silicon program which ultimately is embodied in our RAP1, to vertically integrating the whole platform. So that's all the perception platform feeding in and running this, what we call this LDM, our Large Driving Model.

So we're extremely excited about this. We do think it's a really big driver in the long term for market share for us. We think it's going to be important that customers have some choices. As I said, with FSD being out there and soon, our Point to Point being out there, we think that's great. And we're looking forward to getting it in the hands of our Autonomy+ customers, and we think certainly that, that will drive an increase -- a further increase, I should say, in the take rate on Autonomy+.

Gautam Narayan

Okay. Just to clarify, I mean, I guess are you guys not giving us the attach rate for your Autonomy product? Is it close to the Tesla level? Or...

Robert Scaringe

We're not giving the attach rate. Maybe someday we will, but we're not giving it here.

Gautam Narayan

And the pricing, could it be -- could you guys raise it for Point to Point, you think?

Robert Scaringe

Well, I do think -- this is an interesting question. But in the fullness of time, of course, we think this is -- over the coming years, we do see opportunities for this to continue to grow. But I think the dynamics around this are going to depend on ultimately how the market is behaving overall. This is something today that's purchased as a separate subscription. You could imagine models where this gets embedded into the price of the vehicle.

So there's a lot of different ways this is going to be priced. I do -- I called out as an inflection point, I would just say Autonomy represents a big, big shift in the overall topology of the auto industry. I think it's going to be a big driver of market share and it could drive huge changes in market share shifting between different companies. I think the models by which we charge for it, monthly subscription upfront, embedded in vehicle price, there's a whole host of really exciting and interesting opportunities.

But like any marketplace, it's going to be market-driven. And so we're watching it very closely. But I'd say if I were to guide on one thing, I'd say it's going to be dynamic. It's not going to be the same for 10 years. It's going to change as the market evolves.

Operator

Our last question comes from Andrew Percoco with Morgan Stanley.

Andrew Percoco

I'll just reiterate all my peers' comments. Claire, it's been great working with you, and I know you've got a good opportunity in front of you, so best of luck. And Derek, looking forward to working more with you going forward.

Maybe just one follow-up question for me around the R1. It seems like just based on what you guys have disclosed, the R2 volumes were, I guess, close to nearly double R1. And it's clear it's outselling the R1, which I would assume was the intention with the vehicle. But I'm curious, how you're thinking about positioning the R1 over time? I know you've gotten asked about this before. And obviously, there's clear value in having that vehicle in the portfolio.

But from a pricing perspective, do you think that there's an opportunity over time to maybe lower the price point as you start to leverage some of the scale and supply chain benefits from the R2 to make the R1 maybe a little bit more in line with some of the other 3-row SUVs we see in the market from a pricing standpoint? Just curious, medium, long-term view on how you're thinking about positioning the product from a pricing standpoint to maybe leverage some scale and get some incremental volume on the R1 over time?

Robert Scaringe

Thanks, Andrew. Derek referenced it in his opening remarks. But just to state and to make sure it's clear, we actually expect the R1 pricing to go up a bit. And so -- and not the pricing, let's just say the average selling price to go up. And it's really strategic. We removed what we call our standard trim for R1 and have intentionally moved the product a bit upmarket and really doing that because of where R2 sits in terms of pricing.

And as we think about how it sits within the portfolio, this is a flagship product. So it's the highest spec trim. It's got over 1,000 horsepower. It's extremely capable on road, extremely capable off-road. The tri-motor is also incredibly capable. It's more than 800 horsepower, extremely capable. And so by virtue of the quad, the tri and the performance dual that we have on that, we very thoughtfully have moved it upmarket to really fill that place as a flagship product. And so that was intentional. And we're now seeing the results of that, and Derek referenced it in terms of -- when you look at revenue per unit for the quarter.

Now with that, its objective is not to be a high-volume product. It's not trying to compete in the -- in like the low-priced or lower-priced segment of 2- or 3-row vehicles. It's working to be much more of a premium vehicle. And as I described it, the capabilities and features are set up as such.

Andrew Percoco

Understood. I'll leave it there.

Robert Scaringe

Okay. Well, great, everybody, for joining us on this call, and appreciate the time. We're -- hopefully, as you can see, we're really excited about what's in front of us. We're excited about the continued ramp-up of R2 and looking at the additional volume we'll be building in Q4 and then into next year.

I think along with that, really excited for what's to come with Autonomy. We spent a lot of time today talking about it. I'm encouraged by the level of interest that there is around our Point to Point capability. And looking forward to showing a lot more about that and talking about that, as well as other aspects of our technology portfolio at our upcoming Autonomy and AI Day. So with that, thank you all for joining us, and look forward to our next call.