ローリエイト・エデュケーション（LAUR）2026年第3四半期決算説明会：在籍者数の増加、ガイダンスを再確認

重要なポイント

• ローリエート・エデュケーションが発表した2026年第3四半期の売上高は4億8,500万ドル、調整後EBITDAは1億4,700万ドルでした。為替の好影響により2,900万ドルが売上高に寄与しました。
• 現地通貨ベースおよび学事日程の時期調整後で、第3四半期の売上高は前年同期比6%増加し、調整後EBITDAは14%増加しました。
• 当学期の募集サイクルにおける新規入学者数および総在籍者数は、それぞれ8%および6%増加しました。メキシコの主要募集サイクルは8%増加し、ペルーの二次募集サイクルは9%増加しました。
• 第3四半期の調整後EPSは前年同期の2倍の0.52ドルとなりました。発表された純利益は1億100万ドル（1株当たり0.73ドル）でした。
• 経営陣は、売上高の見通しを19億2,000万〜19億3,000万ドル、調整後EBITDAを5億9,300万〜5億9,900万ドル、調整後EPSを2.04〜2.10ドルとする2026年通期の業績予想（ガイダンス）を据え置きました。
• 取締役会はさらに1億5,000万ドルの自社株買いを追加承認し、試算上の残額は2億2,500万ドル（9月30日時点）となりました。

主要財務データ

2026年最初の9か月間の売上高は 7%増加し、調整後EBITDAは9%増加しました（固定為替レートおよび学期カレンダーの時期調整後ベース）。

事業および営業の業績

メキシコ

メキシコにおける主要入学期の新規入学者数は 8%増加しました。これは対面プログラムや新設のプエブラキャンパスに支えられたものです。プエブラキャンパスは、メキシコの入学者数増加に約3パーセントポイント寄与し、経営陣の予想をわずかに上回る業績を収めました。

メキシコの総在籍者数は5%増加しました。 カレンダー調整後の第3四半期の売上高および調整後EBITDAは、 6%および12%、それぞれ固定為替レートベースで増加しました。

最初の9か月間において、メキシコの売上高は6%増加し、 調整後EBITDAは3%。経営陣は、EBITDA成長の鈍化について、投資タイミングおよびプエブラ・キャンパスの立ち上げによるものと説明しました。

ペルー

ペルーにおける第2期募集の新規入学者数は9%増加し、社会人を対象とした完全オンラインプログラムが牽引しました。総学生数は5%増加しました。

カレンダー調整後の第3四半期売上高は6%増加し、調整後EBITDAは15%増加しました（固定為替レートベース）。年初来の売上高と調整後EBITDAはそれぞれ7%と14%増加しました。

ローリエートはペルーに4万人を超える完全オンラインの学生を擁しています。経営陣は、低価格帯オンラインプログラムの急速な拡大がプロダクトミックスを通じて学生1人当たりの平均売上高を押し下げており、この影響は2027年まで続くと予想しています。

キャンパスの拡大

ローリエートは2025年年初以降、リマ東部のアテ、モンテレイ、プエブラの3つのキャンパスを開設しました。経営陣によると、キャンパスが満杯になるには通常4〜5年かかるとのことです。

2027年にはさらに2つのキャンパス開設が計画されています。サウス・リマ・キャンパスは第1四半期に開設される見込みであり、メリダ・キャンパスはメキシコの2027年9月の主要新学期前に開設される予定です。

メリダ・キャンパスの受入能力は約6,000名となる見込みで、設備投資額は2,000万ドル台前半から半ばの範囲とされています。経営陣は、2026年中に追加の用地を確保した上で、2028年にキャンパス開設を加速させる見込みであると述べました。

業績予想（ガイダンス）

2026年第4四半期について、経営陣は売上高を5億4,600万ドル〜5億5,600万ドル、調整後EBITDAを1億9,800万ドル〜2億400万ドルと予想しています。この見通しには推定2,000万ドルの年度内学事日程によるマイナス影響が含まれています。

経営陣は、為替変動が通期ガイダンスの下限と上限を分ける主な要因であると指摘しました。現在の為替レートでは業績はほぼ中間値付近になるとみられますが、通貨高または通貨安により、業績はそれぞれ上限または下限に向かって推移する可能性があります。

リスクと注視点

• 為替変動： メキシコペソとペルーソルは第3四半期以降に下落し、同四半期中に記録された好都合な通貨の動きを反転させました。
• 学事日程のタイミング： 授業開始日の変更により、売上高と調整後EBITDAが四半期を跨いで移行しました。これには第4四半期の売上高に対する2,000万ドルのマイナス影響の見込みが含まれています。
• オンライン比率と退学率： ペルーで増加している完全オンラインの学生数は、他の形式と比べて学生1人当たりの平均売上高が低く、サイクル内の退学率が高くなっています。
• キャンパス投資： 新キャンパスの開設により、推定500万ドルの重荷が生じており、メキシコの利益率を約50ベーシスポイント、連結ベースで約25ベーシスポイント押し下げています。
• 競合圧力： 経営陣はペルーの他の大学がオンラインプログラムを拡充していることを認めたものの、ローリエートのブランド力、提供商品の幅広さ、そして学生体験の強みを強調しました。
• エルニーニョ現象： 2026年11月から2027年2月の間にピークを迎えると予測されています。経営陣は、ハイブリッド型およびオンラインでの講義提供により、ペルーにおける潜在的な業務混乱を一部緩和できるとしています。

アナリスト質疑応答のハイライト

経営陣は、新キャンパスが現在、連結利益率を約25ベーシスポイント押し下げていると述べました。その投資負担がなければ、2026年の利益率拡大は約75ベーシスポイントとなり、ガイダンスで示された50ベーシスポイントを上回ることになります。今後数年間、経営陣は年平均で30〜50ベーシスポイントの利益率拡大を目標として維持しています。

在籍者数増加率のピーク時6%から通期ガイダンス上限の5%への予想低下は、第4四半期の通常の退学率を反映しています。ペルーでは退学率がより高い完全オンラインの学生比率が高いため、経営陣は今年度、その影響がより大きくなると予想しています。

従来のガイダンスに対する第3四半期の業績について、経営陣は900万ドルの売上高上振れはすべて為替によるものだと述べました。調整後EBITDAの上振れは、為替効果と支出時期の要因がほぼ均等に寄与したことを反映しています。およそ500万ドル の費用が第4四半期にずれ込む見込みです。

経営陣はまた、2026年に開設されるキャンパスはプエブラのみであることを確認しました。 アテとモンテレイは運営2年目を迎え、 定着が進む中でオーガニックな在籍者数増加に貢献しています。

決算説明会 トランスクリプト全文

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

Hello, and welcome to Laureate Education Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results. [Operator Instructions]

I would now like to turn the call over to Adam Morse. You may begin.

Adam Morse

Good morning and thank you for joining us on today's call to discuss Laureate Education's third quarter 2026 results. Joining me on the call today are Eilif Serck-Hanssen, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Rick Buskirk, Chief Financial Officer.

Our earnings press release is available on the Investor Relations section of our website at laureate.net. We have also posted a supplementary presentation to the website, which we will be referring to during today's call. The call is being webcast and a complete recording will be available after the call.

I'd like to remind you that some of the information we are providing today, including, but not limited to, our financial and operational guidance constitutes forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable U.S. securities laws. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may change at any time, and therefore, our actual results may differ materially from those we expected. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations are disclosed in our annual report on Form 10-K filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, our 10-Q filed earlier this morning, as well as other filings made with the SEC.

In addition, all forward-looking statements are based on current expectations as of the date of this conference call, and we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. Additionally, non-GAAP measures that we discuss, including and among others, adjusted EBITDA and its related margin, adjusted net income and adjusted earnings per share, total debt net of cash and equivalents and free cash flow are also detailed and reconciled to their GAAP counterparts in our press release or supplementary presentation.

Let me now turn the call over to Eilif.

Eilif Serck-Hanssen

Thank you, Adam, and good morning, everyone. Today, we are pleased to report strong financial performance for the third quarter, along with the results of our current intake cycle. Third quarter revenue was $485 million and adjusted EBITDA was $147 million. Both metrics were ahead of the guidance we provided 3 months ago, aided by favorable foreign exchange rates.

In Mexico, the primary intake is largely completed with new enrollment growth of 8% versus comparable intake period last year, driven by a very successful launch of our new campus in Puebla as well as continued growth in existing campuses and online.

In Peru, we are seeing a 9% increase year-over-year in new enrollments during the secondary intake, which will be fully completed in November. Our Peru intake benefited from our leading fully online capabilities, which generated strong demand from working adult students. The strong results from our combined intake cycles confirm the 3 main growth levers in our business and that they are all working well.

These 3 growth drivers are: Number one, same-store growth enabled by rising participation rates and market share gains. And secondly, new campus expansions in new ZIP codes and new cities in Mexico and Peru. And thirdly, our rapidly scaling fully online portfolio for working adult learners.

Since the start of 2025, we have opened 3 new campuses, and we expect 2 additional campuses opening in 2027. Our Southern Lima campus remains on track to open in the first quarter, followed by our new Mexican campus in Merida, which is expected to open prior to the September 2027 main intake. Beyond these projects, we have a strong multi-year pipeline of attractive campus expansion opportunities across Mexico and Peru, and we have already secured multiple sites to support future growth and expect to accelerate our new campus openings in 2028. During our next earnings call, we will provide some additional details on the pipeline and its deployment cadence going forward.

Upon completion of this intake cycle, we have good visibility into the remainder of the year as well as the jump-off point for 2027. That gives us the confidence to reaffirm the full year guidance expectations and announce an additional $150 million increase to our stock repurchase program, reinforcing our disciplined capital allocation strategy and commitment to long-term shareholder value creation.

Let me now provide some color on the geopolitical and macro conditions in our markets. Mexico's economy continues to show signs of improvement during 2026. Second quarter GDP grew by 2.1% year-over-year, the strongest gain since 2024, supported by broad-based growth across industrial production, services, and agriculture. And importantly, foreign direct investment hit a record level for the first half of this year, highlighting the renewed confidence in Mexico's role as the preferred supply chain partner to the United States. While conditions are improving and in line with our expectations for the second half of 2026, overall economic growth in Mexico continues to be below its full potential. In the medium- to long-term, we remain confident that Mexico's deep integration with the U.S. economy will provide attractive structural growth opportunities for the Mexican economy.

In Peru, President Keiko Fujimori's election win provides greater clarity on economic policy, which now focuses on reducing red tape, increasing investments in core industries, and lifting the growth rate for the economy. Strong domestic demand, large investment into the mining sector, and elevated commodity prices further support Peru's momentum of GDP growth above 3%.

As for Peru's El Nino preparedness, the country has drawn lesson from previous events and is today better prepared than during past extreme weather occurrences. The government has improved their forecast capabilities and increased investments in storm and flood mitigation activities, including river dredging and drainage systems. Further, Laureate's ability to deliver high-quality hybrid and online learning should help to partly mitigate the potential disruption to our operations during the peak of the El Nino event forecasted to take place between November 2026 and February 2027.

In summary, Peru's solid fundamentals continue to support our bullish medium- and long-term growth outlook for the country.

That concludes my prepared remarks, and I'm now handing the call over to Rick for the financial overview for the quarter as well as more details on our outlook. Rick?

Richard Buskirk

Thank you, Eilif. Before I discuss our financial performance for the quarter, let me provide a few important reminders on seasonality. Campus-based higher education is a seasonal business. Although the third quarter is a large intake period, from a P&L perspective, it is seasonally low as classes are out of session for much of the quarter. In addition, the timing of the start of our classes can shift year-over-year depending on various factors such as when public universities begin classes or when holidays occur. This, in turn, affects the timing of enrollments and revenue recognition and quarter-over-quarter comparability.

In terms of seasonality for 2026, we have some intra-year calendar timing impacts as outlined on Slide 21 in our presentation. As I review our operating results, I will provide additional color on these timing-related impacts.

Let's start with Pages 10 and 11 of the supplementary presentation, which highlight our third quarter and year-to-date operating and financial performance. New and total enrollment volumes increased 8% and 6%, respectively, for the current intake cycle versus the comparable intake period in the prior year. Growth from new campuses contributed approximately 2% to our overall new enrollment growth and 1% to our total enrollment growth. Third quarter revenue was $485 million and adjusted EBITDA was $147 million. Strong new enrollment intakes in both markets drove favorable results for the quarter.

We also benefited from $29 million of foreign currency impact on revenue, reflecting a stronger Mexican peso and Peruvian sol during the period. On a constant currency basis and adjusted for the academic calendar shift discussed earlier, revenue for the seasonally low third quarter was up 6% year-over-year and adjusted EBITDA increased by 14%.

Third quarter net income was $101 million, resulting in earnings per share of $0.73 per share on a reported basis. Third quarter adjusted net income was $72 million and adjusted earnings per share was $0.52 per share, an increase of 100% as compared to Q3 of the previous year. Growth was aided by earnings momentum and favorable intra-year academic calendar timing.

Now turning to year-to-date performance. On a constant currency basis and adjusted for academic calendar timing, results for the first 9 months of 2026 were strong, with revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth of 7% and 9%, respectively, versus the prior year period.

Let me now provide some additional color on the performance of Mexico and Peru, starting with Page 13. Please note that all comparisons versus prior year are on a constant currency basis. Let's start with Mexico. Mexico's new enrollments for the primary intake grew 8% versus the prior year intake period with strong growth in face-to-face enrollments. As Eilif noted earlier, our new campus opening in Puebla is performing ahead of expectations and as a result, contributed approximately 3% to Mexico's year-over-year intake performance. Pricing for the intake was in line with our cost inflation for our traditional face-to-face and online programs. Total enrollments volume increased by 5% versus the comparable intake period in the prior year. Adjusted for timing of the academic calendar, Mexico's revenue for the third quarter grew 6% year-over-year and adjusted EBITDA increased 12%.

As discussed on prior calls, we expect Mexico's margin accretion in 2026 to be weighted towards the second half of this year. On a year-to-date basis and adjusted for timing of the academic calendar, Mexico's revenue grew 6%, resulting from a 4% increase in average total enrollments and price mix and adjusted EBITDA increased by 3%, reflecting the timing of investments and the ramp up of our new Puebla campus.

Let's now transition to Peru on Slide 14. Peru's secondary new enrollment intake grew 9% versus the prior year intake period, driven by fully online programs as we continue to leverage our leading digital capabilities to meet growing market demand for working adults. Our rapid growth in fully online is creating price mix impact on average revenue per student in Peru. We expect this impact to persist into next year. Total enrollments were up 5% versus the prior year intake period, supported by new enrollment growth and the expansion of our fully online programs.

Adjusted for timing of the academic calendar, Peru's revenue for the third quarter grew 6% year-over-year, driven by higher enrollment volumes and adjusted EBITDA increased by 15%. On a year-to-date basis and adjusted for timing of the academic calendar, Peru's revenue increased 7% versus the prior year period. Adjusted EBITDA was up 14% and was impacted by the timing of certain expenses, which are expected to normalize in the fourth quarter.

Let me now transition to our balance sheet. Our balance sheet remains strong. Laureate ended September with $204 million in gross debt and $190 million in cash for a net debt position of $14 million. Through September, we repurchased $256 million of common stock under our previously announced share repurchase program, including $75 million of repurchases in the third quarter. Today, we announced that our Board has authorized an additional $150 million increase to our share repurchase program. In total, as of September 30 and pro forma for this increased authorization, $225 million remains available under the upsized authorization. Upon completion of this full execution, we will have returned more than $3.5 billion of capital to shareholders since 2019 through a combination of share repurchases, cash distributions, and cash dividends.

Moving on to our outlook, starting on Page 18. As Eilif noted earlier, we recognized favorable foreign currency impact in our third quarter results versus expectations. Since that time, both the Mexican peso and Peruvian sol have weakened against the dollar, essentially giving back the FX upside from our third quarter. Despite the recent weakening of the currencies, we are pleased to reaffirm our full year guidance for 2026, which is as follows: Total enrollments to be in the range of 518,000 to 523,000 students, reflecting growth of 4% to 5% versus 2025. Revenues to be in the range of $1.92 billion to $1.93 billion, reflecting growth of 13% on an as-reported basis and growth of 6% to 7% on a constant currency basis versus 2025.

Adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $593 million to $599 million, reflecting growth of 14% to 15% on an as-reported basis and 8% to 9% on a constant currency basis versus 2025. This would result in an increase in adjusted EBITDA margins of approximately 50 basis points at the midpoint of guidance on a reported basis. For 2026, adjusted EBITDA to unlevered free cash flow conversion of approximately 50% on a reported basis, supporting our continued emphasis on return of capital to shareholders. Lastly, adjusted earnings per share guidance for 2026 is expected to be in the range of $2.04 to $2.10 per share, reflecting growth of 19% to 22% versus 2025 on a reported basis. This outlook assumes a weighted average share count of approximately 139 million shares.

Now moving to fourth quarter guidance, which includes an expected $20 million of unfavorable intra-year academic calendar timing as illustrated on Page 21 of our presentation. For the fourth quarter of 2026, we expect revenue to be in the range of $546 million to $556 million. And finally, adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $198 million to $204 million.

Eilif, I'm now handing it back to you for your closing comments.

Eilif Serck-Hanssen

Thank you, Rick. The strong year-to-date performance through September reflects the strength of our business model and the resilience of our operations in Mexico and Peru. Our investments in academic innovations, AI capabilities, digital offerings and accretive campus expansions are all strengthening our competitive position. At the same time, our scaled operating model continues to drive margin expansion and strong free cash flow generation. We have an enviable position with the leading university brands, attractive growth opportunities, and a strong balance sheet. We believe these favorable attributes position us well to create long-term value for our shareholders while also expanding access to high-quality affordable education for students and learners in Mexico and Peru.

Operator, that concludes our prepared remarks, and we are now happy to take any questions from the participants.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Jeff Silber with BMO Capital Markets.

質疑応答

Jeffrey Silber

You called out the -- I think it was a 3% impact on enrollment from the new campus in Puebla. Can you talk about the other 2 campuses you opened this year? Can you just remind us where they were, when they opened? And was there any impact from those other 2 campuses on the quarter as well?

Eilif Serck-Hanssen

Hello, Jeff, this is Eilif. Yes, Puebla performed very well and opened on time, on budget, and slightly ahead of our expectations. We have also opened a new campus in the east part of Lima, in a district called Ate. And we opened also a new campus in Monterrey, Mexico. Those campuses are now in the second year of operation. So there's just normal growth in new enrollment as the base -- 2025 baseline already had a cohort of new enrollment in it. So that's part of the organic growth. However, both campuses contribute nicely to the total of -- of total enrollment as the campuses takes 4 to 5 years to fill up.

Jeffrey Silber

I appreciate you clarifying that. And in terms of the fourth quarter guidance, when we compare it to your implied guidance beforehand, it was a little light. You called out a couple of things in the quarter, and I just hope you can parse that out. I think there was a timing difference in expenses in Peru and also changes in FX. Is it possible to kind of segment those 2 in terms of the impact on guidance?

Richard Buskirk

Yes, absolutely. The outperformance in Q3 was primarily driven by FX and a bit of, as you said, expense shifting in terms of adjusted EBITDA. But more specifically, the revenue outperformance of $9 million versus the high was entirely driven by FX favorability in the quarter versus guidance. And for adjusted EBITDA, it was about a near 50-50 combination of FX outperformance and operational expense timing shift. So that -- when you look at Q3, it was that. When you look at Q4, we're obviously looking at a much weakened peso relative to the dollar at where we sit as of last week and this week. So that we are not -- we are reaffirming full year guidance, but we are taking down Q4 as we're just flowing through the upside of FX that we had in Q3 to Q4.

Jeffrey Silber

So again, roughly a 50-50 impact in the fourth quarter as well?

Richard Buskirk

Revenue was all FX.

Jeffrey Silber

Revenue is all FX, okay. And then obviously, the expenses -- the adjusted EBITDA is impacted by the timing of expenses. I can follow up on this.

Richard Buskirk

The expenses will shift of around $5 million in -- probably in Q4.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Alex Paris with Barrington Research.

Alexander Paris

Just to follow-up on the Q4 guide. Obviously, FX, you just kind of went through that, a negative impact in the fourth quarter versus prior guidance. A $20 million shift in revenue, which we knew about in the academic calendar. Does that shift into Q1, first of all?

Richard Buskirk

No, it's all intra-year. So it all will be going into Q4, and we've got that laid out for you in the earnings presentation. You can see it by quarter [indiscernible] around $16 million, $28 million shifted into Q3 in Mexico and one in Peru in Q3 and $16 million and $4 million shift out of Q4, and you see that on the earnings presentation on Page 21. [indiscernible] of next year.

Alexander Paris

And then if you take high and low of your full year guidance and the year-to-date through 9 months, there's a $10 million spread on revenues from high to low, a $6 million spread on adjusted EBITDA from high to low. What are the underlying assumptions for the low end and the high end basically?

Richard Buskirk

I think really at this point, we're sitting here in end of October. We just completed our intake. We have a very strong view of the operational performance of the business and feel very comfortable about that. The bigger impact that is between the spread of the high and low is FX. And if the current FX level hold versus the peso deteriorate versus the peso rebounds?

Alexander Paris

So if the current level holds, we're talking midpoint. If the current -- if FX improves for you, it's the high end. If it weakens, it's the low end.

Richard Buskirk

Approximately.

Alexander Paris

Okay. Good. That's helpful. And then on year-to-date new student enrollment for Laureate in general, it was up 9%. At June 30, it was up 10%. And if you look at it by market, it was really a decline in new student enrollment sequentially in Peru. Now I realize that's the secondary intake, but is there anything else to read into that?

Eilif Serck-Hanssen

I mean we are very, very pleased with the new enrollment momentum this year. We have seen the Mexican economy improving, and we obviously -- we used to correlate it to the overall economy and including the offline [indiscernible] we are getting an uplift in execution and [indiscernible] is very, very strong. So getting 8% enrollment growth for the full cycle for Mexico, which is the main impact, I'm very, very pleased and encouraged by that, when you're looking [indiscernible] across all [indiscernible] across all modalities and I think the hybrid and online. And also [indiscernible] Mexico was, I think was the main intake is also heavily weighted to face-to-face young students. And that's traditionally the more economically sensitive population because of the adult students are more resilient [indiscernible] the main intake is February and March and continues to be very strong and [indiscernible] rotational basis and very strong [indiscernible] of the overall impact.

Alexander Paris

Great. Thank you. I appreciate the additional -- yes, the additional color is helpful. Thank you. And then just a point of clarification. In prepared comments, you talked about discussing the pipeline on the Q4 call. Are you referring to the new campus pipeline?

Eilif Serck-Hanssen

[indiscernible] the pipeline of a few campus [indiscernible] campus opportunities that they have with a very significant amount of kind of the expansion opportunities across both of our markets. Of course, Mexico is a bigger country and has more opportunities both when you have the [indiscernible] and more specificity on that in the fourth quarter results and 2027 guidance. But you can expect, given the fact that we have secured more opportunities to secure our CapEx for the second half of 2026 has increased a little bit versus historical levels, and that is because securing [indiscernible] and expansion opportunities that will be coming online 18 to 24 months [indiscernible] campuses in 2027 and we will [indiscernible].

Alexander Paris

Great. I had a little trouble hearing you. But just to be clear, there were 2 new campuses opened up last year. There's Puebla this year. And then next year, there's 2 planned, 1 in each market. Is that still the current thinking for 2027?

Eilif Serck-Hanssen

That's correct. And in 2028, we should be able to go a little faster given we have secured land plots for new locations during 2026, which will likely come online in 2028.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Marcelo Santos with JPMorgan.

Marcelo Santos

I have 2 on my side. The first is going back to the guidance. I think you were forecasting enrollment growth of around 4% to 5%, right, for the year. And you're growing faster than that now. What would this number of enrollments decelerate? What would make it decelerate into the fourth quarter? Like I just want to know if this is conservativeness or there's some specific effect that you are targeting there? And the second question would be more if you could discuss -- you already discussed this in previous quarters, but could you reiterate your views on margins outlook for the next coming years?

Unknown Executive

Yes. This is [indiscernible]. Good morning, Marcelo. First, as it relates to our guidance, the rate is 4% to 5% at the high end of the range, is short of range, the high end range is 5%. And the difference between the guidance and the 6% is simply a matter of that September 30 is peak enrollment. And we have intra-cycle attrition in the fourth quarter as we normally experience, that brings it down to an average at that high of 5%. Since we had a stronger mix of fully online, particularly in Peru that has a higher attrition, that's what's happening structurally. I'll pause there and see if that answers your first question.

Marcelo Santos

Every year, you have this effect, right, in the fourth quarter. So what you're saying is that this year, this attrition effect should be higher because of the mix in Peru. That would be the main reason why this year would be different than the previous year.

Richard Buskirk

That's correct. And as it relates to your second question, as you know and our investors know, we've done a tremendous focus on very aggressive margin expansion, particularly in Mexico over the last couple of years that led to over 500 basis points.

As Eilif and I have communicated, we have a commitment to continue to expand our margins in the next several years despite drag that we have from the new campus investments. And we've said that we expect to be able to expand margins on average around 30 to 50 basis points per year going forward. And really, what's happening there fundamentally is we're getting the benefit of the massive scale that Laureate has of 500,000 students and a very skilled back office where we get good flow-through on incremental revenue.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Samuel Alves with BTG Pactual.

Samuel Alves

First on Mexico's margins, just one follow-up. Could you guys quantify how much the new greenfield campuses are currently like diluting margins? Just trying to understand the potential of the margin upside as the campus mature. And second, on Peru, we have heard that the competition has become somewhat more aggressive there with some players like cutting prices, particularly in the fully online programs or versus the fully online programs. Have guys noticed like any change in the competitive environment or pricing dynamics there in Peru? That's it.

Richard Buskirk

Sure. I'll take the first question and then Eilif can take the second question. So on the first question as it relates to the impact of the new campuses, as we said in prior calls and in this one, the impact is around 50 basis points on margin in Mexico and about 25 basis points consolidated. So just as a reminder, we're saying that we're going to expand overall Laureate margins 50 basis points this year. It had not been for new campuses, we would have expanded 75. So at the end of the day, we're still expanding margins despite that. And essentially, what's happening is there's around a $5 million drag in new campuses because the campuses aren't open, particularly Puebla that just launched here in the third quarter, fourth quarter and the Merida, second campus we're going to launch next year. So we're paying rent on those and accelerating marketing investments on those. But obviously, we are looking forward to them as they continue to get cohorts into the door will be very accretive to us overall with it.

Eilif Serck-Hanssen

Sam, can you hear me okay?

Samuel Alves

Yes, sure. The second one.

Eilif Serck-Hanssen

Yes, the second was [indiscernible] difficult to hear, my microphone is working okay.

In terms of the competitive environment in Peru, clearly, people are looking towards the leadership position we have established in the fully online and, not surprisingly, people are -- all the universities are launching their online product portfolio. But the purchase behavior is really driven by the brand positioning, the product portfolio, the overall student experience and the price point. And our strategy has been to deliver a high-quality product at an affordable price. Right? That gives us a very, very significant competitive advantage, and that's really why we have been growing this market very, very rapidly. And we currently have over 40,000 fully online in Peru. So really, really robust growth for us in that segment. But yes, absolute [indiscernible].

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Mauricio Cepeda with Morgan Stanley.

Mauricio Cepeda

Just so you know that the sound there in the room is not really clear. I think you seem to be a little far away from the mic. But anyhow, I'll make my -- we have also 2 questions from our side. So first is about expansion, right, so that we can project better. So this new campus in Merida, how does it compare to the ones that we already have in Monterrey, Puebla, and Mexico City in terms of capacity and CapEx? And what should be your standardized campus size and necessary CapEx? So will you continue to be focusing also on these lower-tier brands in both countries? So this is the first part. And the second part, a little bit more about how online is progressing. So just to have a kind of a reality check on how much of the Mexican intake growth has come from the face-to-face versus online?

Eilif Serck-Hanssen

So in terms of the Merida campus, it is a smaller campus because the secondary [indiscernible]. It is a CapEx of somewhere in the mid to low 20s versus mid 40s for a capital city campus. It has about 6,000 students capacity versus a typical [indiscernible] for capital city campus. But it has a very similar IRR profile. The strength of our brands in the secondary cities gives us a very commanding preference, consumer preference and hence the market share will be opening up. And the market segmentation in the secondary cities are greater than those in capital cities. So there is a strong preference towards large nationally recognized brand as education is very important branded consumer product. I'll pause there to see if that answers your question on the Merida expansion economics. Can you hear me?

Mauricio Cepeda

Yes. I think about the online also, right?

Eilif Serck-Hanssen

Yes. So moving on to online. We view online to be very different, but complementary business. It leverages on the back of it. It leverages very strong brand portfolio. And of course, a lot of the infrastructure as well is shared with a hybrid portfolio in those markets. That gives us a massive competitive advantage and scale benefit. But the commercial [indiscernible] for online is [indiscernible] nontraditional students, students who are looking for a degree completion or getting a undergraduate degree in order to get promotion or shifting their career from a local company into international. So it's a very, very different consumer and the marketing and the communication and the attraction effort is very separate and distinct from that of [indiscernible] high school lever and hence marketing to what we call [indiscernible] 15 to 20 kilometer radius of all of 55 campuses [indiscernible].

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, I'm showing no further questions in the queue. That concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.