OppFi (OPFI) 2026年第3四半期決算説明会：減収、業績予想レンジを縮小

主な要点

• 2026年第3四半期の売上高は、主に提携マーケティングパートナーのスクリーニング基準の厳格化に伴い、前年同期比3.8%減の1億4,900万ドルとなり、新規融資実行額（オリジネーション）は同約7%減の2億2,900万ドルに減少しました。
• 調整後純利益は23%減の約3,200万ドルとなりました。調整後EPSは前年同期の0.46ドルから0.37ドルに低下しました。
• 純貸倒損失率は売上高の約40%、平均売掛債権の約53%に上昇しました。しかし経営陣は、回収額が1,100万ドルから約1,500万ドルに増加したことに支えられ、全体的な信用パフォーマンスは安定していると述べています。
• OppFiは第3四半期に当座貸越（ライン・オブ・クレジット）商品を投入し、2027年の成長ドライバーになると見込んでいます。第4四半期に導入予定の「モデル7」は、初期結果において、事前スクリーニングスコアと提携銀行の引受基準との適合性が20%向上することを示しました。
• 経営陣は2026年通期の業績予想を絞り込み、売上高を6億〜6億1,000万ドル、調整後純利益を1億1,500万〜1億2,000万ドル、調整後EPSを1.34〜1.40ドルとしました。
• BNCCの買収は引き続き規制当局の承認待ちとなっています。経営陣は第4四半期中の完了に期待を示しているものの、手続きが2027年第1四半期にずれ込む可能性もあることを認めました。

主要財務データ

事業および業績の動向

OppFiは、新規融資実行額の減少の主な要因としてマーケティングパートナーによるスクリーニングの厳格化を挙げました。経営陣は、「モデル7」により顧客が最終的に利用資格を得る金額と提示条件をより正確に一致させ、ターゲティングとコンバージョン率が向上すると期待しています。同モデルは決算説明会の時点で検証中であり、第4四半期に稼働する予定です。

同社は第3四半期中に、提携銀行を通じて新たな当座貸越商品を立ち上げました。OppFiはマーケティングチャネルの追加、新規地域への参入、既存市場でのテスト準備を進めています。経営陣は、同商品の柔軟性と繰り返し利用できる機能を2027年の潜在的な成長ドライバーと位置付けています。

「プライシング・テスト5」では、返済期間の延長などを通じて、分割払いローン顧客の大部分に対し月々の支払額と実質年率（APR）を引き下げています。経営陣は初期指標が良好であることを明らかにし、この取り組みが第4四半期および2027年の新規融資実行額を支えるものと期待しています。

現在、新規の分割払いローン顧客の実質すべてがLOLAプラットフォーム上で運用されています。既存顧客およびデータの移行は、2027年に向けて実質的に完了する見込みです。OppFiは2027年に融資実行およびサービシング業務向けAIエージェントの開発を開始する予定です。

Bittyは2021年以降の累計融資額が10億ドルを突破し、より高額な融資枠、低金利、長期返済期間を備えたニアプライム層向けのプレミア商品を投入しました。同事業ではまた、引受、信用の意思決定、資金実行、サービシング全般においてAIと自動化を導入しています。

経営陣の見通し（ガイダンス）

経営陣は2027年および2028年の見通しに変更はないと述べ、2028年末までにEPS約3ドルを達成するという目標を維持しました。また、OppFiは5年以内に調整後純利益5億ドルを目指す目標も継続しています。

リスクおよび注視事項

経営陣によると、インフレの長期化と消費者マインドの低迷が、OppFiの顧客層に引き続き圧力をかけています。与信費用は前年同期を上回りましたが、純貸倒損失率は概ね過去の平均水準にとどまっており、回収金の増加が一部相殺したと説明しています。

BNCC取引は依然として規制当局の承認を必要としています。OppFiは規制当局への対応を続けており、申請は依然として強力であると考えていますが、経営陣は取引完了が第4四半期から2027年第1四半期にずれ込む可能性があると述べました。

OppFiは戦略的支出と収益性および流動性のバランスをとっています。経営陣によると、1,800万ドル近い自社株買い、4,200万ドルの税額受取契約（TRA）の支払い、LOLA向けの約3,500万ドル、Bittyへの投資、BNCC取引など、2026年中の投資額は1億5,000万ドルを超えています。

アナリスト質疑応答の要点

• 成長戦略：経営陣は、当座貸越商品、モデル7、およびLOLAへの移行完了が、2027年における件数および融資実行額の成長トレンドへの回帰を後押しすると見込んでいます。
• 価格設定と利回り：OppFiは、特に提携サイトにおいて価格や条件が優良顧客のリスクプロファイルにより適している場合、そうした顧客に対して低利回りを受け入れる方針です。経営陣は、高いマージンの維持と規律ある顧客獲得コストの管理に引き続き注力していくと述べました。
• 製品ロードマップ：同社は、消費者のキャッシュフローに関するユースケースとより広範なマーケティング機会を理由に、当座貸越商品を補完するものとして2027年に向けて給与前払いサービス（Earned Wage Access）の導入を検討しています。
• 資本配分：OppFiは第3四半期中に4,000万ドルの枠に基づく自社株買いを開始しました。経営陣は、株価が割安であると判断した場合には機動的に取得を継続する方針を示しました。
• BNCC買収資金：約1億3,000万ドルの取引は株式50%、現金50%で構成されています。経営陣は追加の資金調達は不要であると述べています。
• Castlelakeクレジットファシリティ：OppFiは約12%の金利で7,500万ドルを引き出し、2027年以降に向けた返済の柔軟性とバランスシートの選択肢確保を強調しました。

決算説明会文字起こし全文

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the OppFi Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. [Operator Instructions]

I am pleased to introduce your host, Jared Pollack. You may begin.

Jared Pollack

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and welcome to OppFi's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. Today, our Executive Chairman and CEO, Todd Schwartz; and CFO, Pam Johnson, will present our financial results, followed by a question-and-answer session. You can access the earnings presentation on our website at investors.oppfi.com.

During this call, OppFi may discuss certain forward-looking information. The company's filings with the SEC describe essential factors that could cause actual results, developments and business decisions to differ materially from forward-looking statements. Please refer to Slide 2 of the earnings presentation and press release for our disclaimer statement covering forward-looking statements and references to information about non-GAAP financial measures, which will be discussed throughout today's call. Reconciliations of those measures to GAAP measures can be found in the appendix to our earnings presentation and press release.

In addition, certain important information related to the BNCC transaction will be included in the registration statement on Form S-4 filed by OppFi in conjunction with the transaction. Investors are encouraged to read the Form S-4 and other documents filed with the SEC in conjunction with the transaction. Please refer to the disclaimer information included in our earnings release.

With that, I would like to turn the call over to Todd.

Todd Schwartz

Thanks, Jared, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. I'll begin with a business update, and then Pam will walk through our strategic investments and third quarter financial results in detail.

Q3 was one of the most productive quarters in our company's history in executing across key strategic initiatives. At the same time, we believe our current share price does not reflect the long-term intrinsic value of the business. Our stock trades well below peer multiples on both a trailing and forward basis. When the market is not giving us credit for our investment and long-term earnings potential, we intend to utilize our Board-authorized $40 million repurchase program when we believe repurchases represent an attractive use of capital.

First, an update on our pending acquisition of BNCC. On September 17, BNCC Corp. stockholders overwhelmingly approved the transaction, leaving regulatory approval as the final step. We continue to work constructively with regulators on our bank merger applications, and we remain confident the combination will benefit our customers through a broader product set and lower costs and BNCC's customers through enhanced digital banking capabilities.

Next, I'm pleased to share that we launched our new line of credit product with our bank partners in Q3. LOC expands credit access while responding to consumers' growing preference for more flexible products. We are beginning to scale it in new geographies, and we'll test it in existing markets to give customers more flexible options. We believe the product will also open new marketing funnel opportunities, which we plan to test in Q4. We see considerable growth potential for LOC in 2027.

We built and launched the technology behind LOC in less than 6 months, thanks to our new LOLA platform. Its clean, modular architecture lets our product and technology teams move faster, shortening development cycle times for new products and other initiatives across originations, servicing and risk. The increased agility allows us to deliver more road map priorities and innovations at a faster pace.

In our core installment business, we continue to focus on affordability and supporting our programs' reach. Our latest pricing initiative, Pricing Test 5, represents our most significant rate and payment reduction opportunity to date. Alongside flexibility, customers want more affordable payments and lower APRs, and we are responding by lowering monthly payments and rates for a large portion of customers.

This initiative reflects a combination of macro conditions and competitive dynamics as well as insights from our customer data, which suggests that offering more affordable monthly payments over longer durations can lead to improvement across key loss indicators. Early indicators are positive, and we expect this to support origination growth in Q4 and into 2027.

The LOLA migration for our installment business is progressing well. Substantially all new customers now run on the new system. The next step is migrating existing customers and data, which we expect to be substantially complete heading into 2027. LOLA has meaningfully strengthened our ability to launch and service multiple products, shorten cycle times for product enhancements, compliance and other workflows, and the LOLA platform now enables us to embed AI agents across originations and servicing workflows over time. We expect development of these capabilities to begin in 2027 and look forward to sharing updates as we progress.

In Q4, we expect to launch Model 7, our most powerful underwriting and targeting model yet. Early results show a 20% improvement in aligning marketing prescreening scores with our bank partners' established underwriting criteria, enabling us to make more accurate and better targeted offers to potential customers, particularly on partner sites. When customers receive offers that more closely match the loan amount they ultimately qualify for, application-to-funded rates are significantly higher. By improving our accuracy, we expect to drive higher conversion and application-to-funded rates. The model is currently in validation, and we look forward to launching it this quarter.

Lastly, Bitty, our small business funding investment, recently surpassed $1 billion in total funding since 2021, marking a significant milestone in its growth. During the quarter, Bitty launched a new premier funding product as part of its strategy to become a full spectrum small business funder. The offering expands Bitty's competitive reach into the near-prime segment, providing larger funding amounts, more attractive pricing and longer repayment terms, allowing Bitty to compete more effectively across a broader range of small business customers.

Bitty is also advancing its AI and automation strategy across the entire funding cycle, from underwriting and credit decisioning to funding and servicing. These initiatives are designed to streamline the customer experience, accelerate decision-making, enhance portfolio performance and create a more efficient, scalable operating platform. Early results are encouraging, and we believe the combination of expanded market reach, AI-driven innovation and a scalable operating platform creates a compelling opportunity for Bitty to accelerate growth in 2027 and beyond.

Taken together, this was an important quarter of progress in building the foundation of OppFi's next phase of growth. We are well underway in strategically transforming the business, investing more than $150 million this year to support continued growth on our path to our objective of $500 million in adjusted net income within 5 years. We remain focused on our vision of becoming a leading technology-enabled bank platform that provides essential credit access and community banking services to everyday Americans and businesses.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Pam.

Pamela Johnson

Thanks, Todd, and good morning, everyone. I want to build on Todd's comments regarding the quarter. Higher-for-longer inflation and subdued consumer sentiment continue to affect our customer base, which tends to be disproportionately impacted relative to the broader population. Against this backdrop, we remain focused on maintaining a strong balance sheet with healthy profit margins over shorter-term volume growth. OppFi has repeatedly demonstrated throughout its history that disciplined underwriting, strong credit performance, superior unit economics and sustainable profitability create more long-term value than pursuing growth at any cost in the near term.

Turning to our financial performance for the third quarter. We generated revenue of $149 million, a 3.8% decrease from Q3 2025. Originations for the quarter decreased by approximately 7% to $229 million compared to the prior year quarter, primarily driven by tightened marketing partner screening criteria. We expect the introduction of Model 7 to help improve future performance.

While credit losses are elevated compared with the prior year period, net charge-offs as a percentage of average receivables remain broadly in line with historical averages, driven in part by our strong recoveries. Net charge-offs as a percentage of revenue during the quarter increased to approximately 40% from 35% in the prior year period, and net charge-offs as a percentage of receivables increased to approximately 53% from 47% in the prior year period. Given the denominator effect, these charge-off metrics appear inflated in times of slower growth. Moreover, we saw a reversion to the mean in credit, but note, we believe it is overall stable.

Importantly, these charge-offs are partially offset by a meaningful improvement in recoveries, an area where we believe we maintain a distinct competitive advantage. Recoveries increased to approximately $15 million from $11 million in the prior year period. We continue to closely monitor consumer payment behavior and adjust our underwriting posture with agility as conditions evolve, and we remain confident that the actions we have taken position the portfolio for stronger performance over time.

Operating expenses remain well controlled as we continue to balance investment in strategic initiatives with disciplined expense management. Total adjusted operating expenses were approximately $52 million, or 35% of revenue, compared with 34% in the prior year period. On an unadjusted basis, including onetime expenses related to the BNCC transaction, expenses were 37% of revenue compared with 36% of revenue in the prior period.

While we continue investing in strategic initiatives, particularly those related to the BNCC transaction and platform development, we maintained disciplined expense management across the rest of the organization. Taken together, adjusted net income decreased by 23% in the third quarter to approximately $32 million compared to the prior year period, and adjusted earnings per share decreased to $0.37 from $0.46 in the prior year period.

Looking at the balance sheet, we continue to maintain a robust financial position, ending the quarter with approximately $141 million in cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash, alongside $350 million in total debt and $443 million in total stockholders' equity. Our total funding capacity was $691 million at quarter end, including $199 million of unused debt capacity. The strong liquidity position and balance sheet flexibility continues to provide a solid foundation for our capital allocation strategy and long-term growth objectives.

On capital allocation, our balance sheet remains a significant source of strength. Our business continues to generate meaningful free cash flow, allowing us to invest in growth initiatives while simultaneously returning capital to shareholders. During the quarter, we began repurchasing shares under the Board-authorized $40 million repurchase program, reflecting our belief that the current valuation does not appropriately reflect the long-term earnings potential of the company. As Todd mentioned, we intend to remain active in repurchasing our shares when we believe they are undervalued.

With greater visibility into the remainder of the year, we are refining our full year 2026 guidance by adjusting the top end of the range. We now expect total revenue of $600 million to $610 million, adjusted net income of $115 million to $120 million and adjusted EPS of $1.34 to $1.40.

Moreover, our confidence in the long-term earnings potential of the company remains unchanged. Our expectations for 2027 and 2028 remain intact, and we continue to believe OppFi is building a stronger, more diversified and more valuable platform. We remain confident in our path toward achieving our long-term objective of approximately $3 of earnings per share by the end of 2028.

With that, I will now turn the call over to the operator for Q&A. Operator?

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And we will take our first question from David Scharf with Citizens Capital Markets.

質疑応答

David Scharf

Todd, maybe to start, just kind of a high-level, broad question. It sounds like both the actual results of the quarter as well as the commentary was very similar to what we heard 3 months ago. And I'm just wondering, is there any -- as you've done more research into maybe just some of the headwinds in volumes, is there anything incremental from a quarter ago that you feel more comfortable getting your arms around as it relates either to the consumer, consumer preference, competitive products? Just -- anything that you can potentially add?

Todd Schwartz

Yes. I mean, I think the fact that we launched our line of credit product, we're very excited about it. We're seeing in the competitive landscape, a lot of growth in the line of credit product. From -- we're going to -- it opens up new geographies, but also some of the marketing capabilities of it.

Customers -- there's a subset of customers that prefer the flexibility, especially in this environment, over the more stringent nature of the installment product, provides customers the ability to draw more frequently. And we're very encouraged by the early testing, and now it's fully launched so that we're going to have that as a growth lever for next year. So that's pretty considerable.

We're also -- we're on -- the product road map for next year. I didn't really talk about it much on this earnings call, but we were encouraged by some of the product road map initiatives we have. We're looking at earned wage access as another complement to the line of credit product for next year and figuring out the best way for us to get that in market next year. So we're encouraged by that.

We're also being cautious. I just -- a little bit more cautious probably than most. We're undergoing a significant strategic transaction with banks. We want to keep our balance sheet. We have about $140 million of cash we're sitting on. So -- and I think that the stock is trading at a really unfair multiple for the amount of strategic initiatives and the growth potential that the company has. But we're positioned really well with a lot of optionality for growth in 2027.

And I think -- listen, I mean, credit for the quarter, although slightly elevated on the growth side, if you look at our recoveries, it's a really strong story, so we're very encouraged by that. When looking at the unit P&L and looking at growth going ahead for the future, our recovery stream has really been dependable and growing, and it gives us confidence to grow in 2027.

David Scharf

Got it. And maybe just as a follow-up, is there any, I guess, granularity you can provide on how we should be thinking about modeling yields, either in the fourth quarter or going forward, in lieu of the pricing adjustments you discussed?

Todd Schwartz

I think one thing that -- we're comfortable, we have a very high margin. We run at a higher margin than most of our peers and feel that, obviously, new product initiatives and marketing are part of getting back to some of the growth on units and originations. But it's also product marketing, right, offering customers, meeting them with a price and term that matches their risk profiles, right?

And so I think we would be comfortable reducing yield for higher-quality customers to be able to recruit them and win, especially in some of these partnership sites. But it's not going to largely be impacted. And Q4 was flat year-over-year. But it is something we're looking at in addition to acquisition costs. We know that in our peer set, a lot of competitors are paying, in some cases, almost double as a percentage of principal that we pay. So we've been very disciplined on keeping yields strong and our acquisition costs. But it is something we're looking at in addition to, like I said, new products and finding new ways to grow.

Operator

We'll take our next question from Dave Storms with Stonegate.

David Storms

Todd, I wanted to start with the line of credit product. Maybe just any more you could tell us about what you learned from the initial rollout, anything around customer demand? And then also maybe more specifically, the learnings that they might apply to that earned wage product, any other products going forward? Just would love to hear more about that.

Todd Schwartz

Yes. I mean, the rollout has gone as expected. We're starting to add additional marketing sources. And we're also starting to plan for offering it in existing states as well, as I mentioned. So we're excited about starting to scale that in the next 2 months of the year, and it will give us a lot of good data and learnings going into 2027 as we start to put our forecast together, so encouraged. And the team did a great job. I think it was -- we announced it was slightly delayed. But after that slight delay, the team came together and got it launched in Q3, which was a big milestone for us.

EWA is something that is -- we think it's not only a product that has a lot of product market fit, we're seeing a lot of customers using it in their daily lives to manage cash flows. But we think that it also just has a lot of marketing capabilities that some of our installment product is not eligible for. So we're excited about that more mainstream opportunities on the marketing side.

Right now, we're thinking that's probably going to be enough for us next year, getting line of credit scaled and adding an earned wage access product. There are other products out there that we'll be looking at and considering, but nothing to report as of now.

David Storms

That's great. I really appreciate that. And then just looking into 2027, I know you're obviously not giving guidance at this point. But with Model 7 hopefully being up in Q4, is there anything you can see either from a macro standpoint or from an OppFi-specific standpoint that might throw a wrench in the typical seasonality that you tend to see?

Todd Schwartz

No. I mean, like one of the benefits of the Model 7, the ability to more accurately target customers or for the -- what they call in and kind of target the loan or advance amount on the line of credit that they're looking for. We found that the targeting customers more provides for higher conversion. So we're excited to get that validated and rolled out. That will be included, obviously, in our forecast for 2027.

But now there's -- we're continuing to believe that a lot of these strategic initiatives, including the LOLA migration, which is -- we're originating 100% of our net new volume through the system now. And we'll soon -- we'll be finishing up the migration substantially this year, which will give us a lot of opportunities in our product road map initiatives going into next year. So we feel confident we're going to get back to our growth trends on a unit and origination basis for '27.

Operator

We'll take our next question from Mike Grondahl with Northland.

Mike Grondahl

So I'm looking at Slide 6, and it's kind of titled, investment in key strategic initiatives. Can you kind of talk through the dollar amount you're investing in those initiatives? And is there anything to call out that's sort of one-off? Or is this sort of just part of running the business?

Todd Schwartz

I'm not -- I don't have Slide 6 in front of me, but I can kind of talk about it at a high level. What's the dollar amount it's referencing?

Mike Grondahl

Yes. The investments that you're making in strategic initiatives.

Todd Schwartz

Yes, the $150 million, yes. Well, starting -- the company has almost bought back almost $18 million this year so far. We had a $42 million TRA, which collapsed the Up-C structure. The contemplated -- the system, the LOLA system is another $35 million of investment to rebuild our whole operating and servicing system.

We have -- we made an investment into Bitty, which -- we have a call option coming in 2027, and then also the bank transaction. So if you kind of add it all together, it probably even might be over $150 million when all is said and done.

Mike Grondahl

Got it. And then on the bank transaction, I think last quarter and when you announced it, you kind of thought you would have this sort of nailed down by year-end. Any updates to that timing? Or does that still feel good?

Todd Schwartz

Yes. I mean, listen, we're continuing to respond to regulators promptly, qualitatively and quantitatively. And we're ready to continue to respond and work with them. We're hopeful that we can get this resolved by Q4. If it does leak or bleed into Q1 of 2027, we'll provide those updates when they come available. But we continue to work on the application and feel like our app from -- on a merit basis, it remains strong and continue to feel like we're giving really solid qualitative and quantitative answers to our regulators.

Mike Grondahl

Got it. And then the $75 million drawn from that Castlelake facility, can you remind us the interest rate on that and kind of the flexibility? If you end up not needing it, can you pay it back right away? How does that fit into your plans?

Todd Schwartz

Yes. I mean, that's more of just a financing to allow for more flexibility in our capital structure and balance sheet. The interest rate is somewhere around 12%, but we were more focused on allowing for a lot of flexibility of payback to allow for flexibility in our capital structure for 2027 and beyond. So it's something that positions us in our balance sheet very well going into 2027 to provide that optionality.

Mike Grondahl

Got it. Okay.

Todd Schwartz

And another thing to mention is we've been paying debt down over the years, and this was just kind of replenishing it. If you look at actually the last couple of years, we've been on a trend of delevering the business from a debt-to-equity ratio. So this is really just kind of replenishing it.

Mike Grondahl

Okay. And then maybe just one more. I think the purchase price of the bank is about $130 million. Would you use all cash for that? Or is there some other financing you would take on? Can you talk about how you envision that?

Todd Schwartz

Yes. I mean, currently, the deal that was announced is 50% stock, 50% cash. So there's no financing needed. We have ample amount of cash to fulfill the transaction.

Operator

Thank you. There are no further questions, and this brings us to the end of today's meeting. We appreciate your time and participation. You may now disconnect.