Gold Price Stands Strongly Above $4,800, Can It Return to $5,000 This Time?

TradingKey - Today (April 15), gold prices ( XAUUSD) hit record highs once again, with spot gold rising to as high as $4,871.31 per ounce, reclaiming the $4,800 level, while U.S. gold futures briefly approached $4,900. This rally was primarily driven by a weakening U.S. dollar and a recovery in risk appetite fueled by hopes that peace negotiations between the U.S. and Iran might resume. Gold continues to attract capital inflows, supported by both safe-haven demand and currency factors.

At the same time, traders' expectations for U.S. rate cuts this year have cooled significantly, with the implied probability dropping to around 33%. This makes gold's performance at elevated levels more dependent on the interplay between geopolitical developments and the U.S. dollar's trajectory.

The situation between the U.S. and Iran is the core variable in the market today. On the news front, Donald Trump stated that negotiations aimed at ending the war with Iran could resume in Pakistan within two days; UN Secretary-General Guterres also believes that the relevant dialogue is "highly likely" to restart soon.

Based on this, the market is reassessing near-term risks in the Middle East. Previous extreme expectations regarding the Strait of Hormuz and energy transport disruptions have cooled somewhat, but the conflict has not truly ended, and the situation remains in an uncertain state of "negotiating while maintaining defenses."

It is precisely this backdrop of "potential de-escalation without a final resolution" that is keeping gold at elevated levels, driven by both safe-haven buying and hedging demand against the risk of the situation deteriorating again.

Meanwhile, the pullback in oil prices is also supporting this rally in gold. As hopes for U.S.-Iran negotiations gain traction, international crude oil prices continued to retreat today, with the market broadly trading on the "fading of geopolitical risk premiums."

Data shows that as of today's early Asian trading session, WTI crude oil fell to a low of $86.96 today and is currently fluctuating around the $90 level, a significant cooling from the period when it surged past $100 due to the escalation of the conflict.

The decline in oil prices has eased inflation concerns on one hand, while on the other, it has weakened the pressure of "high oil prices continuing to push up the dollar and real interest rates," providing indirect support for gold.

In the short term, whether gold can remain steady above $4,800 hinges on whether the U.S.-Iran negotiations actually materialize and whether oil prices can maintain their current downward momentum. If negotiations proceed smoothly and oil prices continue to drop, gold may maintain its strength and challenge the $5,000 level. However, if negotiations stall again, geopolitical risk premiums could quickly return, potentially keeping gold prices in a high-level consolidation phase.