TradingKey

TradingKey - Following the Federal Reserve's release of its June meeting decisions, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, a voting FOMC member this year, stated in his latest remarks that he has revised his full-year policy outlook from "one rate cut by year-end" in March to "one rate hike by year-end." This makes him the first core official in the current cycle to explicitly pivot to a rate-hike stance. The shift is primarily driven by the dual escalation of sticky inflation and geopolitical risks. Latest data shows that the Fed's preferred inflation gauge has risen to 4.1%, while core inflation reached 3.4%, both hitting more than two-year highs, with inflation deviating from the 2% target for five consecutive years. Kashkari believes that energy prices driven up by the Middle East conflict are unlikely to retreat rapidly, and there is insufficient certainty regarding compliance with the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement. With geopolitical supply risks yet to be fully cleared, upward pressure on inflation persists.

TradingKey - Vessel transit has resumed through the Strait of Hormuz, significantly cooling concerns over crude oil supply disruptions in the Persian Gulf. Catalyzed by the easing of geopolitical risks, international oil prices have retreated to a four-month low, with the previously accumulated geopolitical risk premium rapidly unwinding. The latest reports indicate that Saudi Arabia is increasing its crude oil shipments while boosting loading volumes at its Red Sea ports. Reportedly, the Port of Ras Tanura, which was shut down due to conflict, has restarted crude oil loading operations, with Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) docking to load cargo—marking the port's first return to normal operations since March. Meanwhile, the Port of Yanbu on the Red Sea remains highly active, with all seven of its crude oil berths operating at full capacity for the first time, driving a continuous month-on-month increase in export volumes.

TradingKey - During Asian trading hours on June 26, SoftBank Group's stock price plummeted by over 14% intraday before closing down more than 12% at 6,226 yen, wiping out nearly 5.6 trillion yen in market value in a single day. The decline was triggered by reports that OpenAI, in which SoftBank holds a heavy $65 billion stake, has postponed its IPO as its financial deficit continues to widen. This sell-off comes shortly after SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son asserted in an exclusive interview with CNBC: "The next golden track to birth a trillion-dollar company will be physical AI and humanoid robots."

TradingKey - According to The New York Times, OpenAI, in which SoftBank holds a 13% stake, may delay its initial public offering (IPO) until 2027.

TradingKey - Apple stock fell after raising Mac and iPad prices to offset soaring DRAM and NAND costs. Here's how the AI memory shortage boosting Micron is squeezing Apple's margins.

TradingKey - SoftBank dropped 13% after reports OpenAI may delay its IPO until 2027. Here's what the delay means for SoftBank's $65B investment and the stock outlook.

TradingKey - Ahead of the US market open on June 26, Eastern Time, the three major US stock index futures fell across the board. As of press time, Dow futures were down 0.10%, Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1.08%, and S&P 500 futures declined 0.44%.

TradingKey - During Friday's pre-market session EST, the US semiconductor sector suffered a widespread sell-off. ON Semiconductor (ON) saw its pre-market decline widen to as much as 13.6%, Micron Technology (MU) fell 4.7%, and AMD (AMD) and Intel (INTC) both dropped over 3%.

TradingKey - Volkswagen, Europe's largest automaker, is drawing up its most radical restructuring plan in nearly 90 years. According to multiple media reports, the company plans to lay off up to 100,000 employees over the coming years and shut down four of its domestic factories in Germany to cope with the compounding pressures of a slow electrification transition, high costs, and persistently weak demand in the European market. Meanwhile, the group plans to slash its capital expenditures by approximately 15% over the next five years, reducing it to over €130 billion.

TradingKey - Micron Technology's (MU) stronger-than-expected post-market earnings on Wednesday are reshaping the cycle outlook for the global memory chip industry. The latest research report from BofA Securities notes that this AI-driven memory supercycle could extend to 2027, and possibly even last until 2030, as the industry undergoes a structural transformation.

TradingKey - As of the close on June 25, Eastern Time, Microsoft (MSFT) shares extended their recent intraday downward trend, closing down 3.46% at $352.83. Since the start of June, Microsoft's stock has steadily declined, racking up a cumulative drop of 21.64%, which indicates that investor sentiment has turned bearish. Furthermore, as the stock price broke below its March low, market bearishness was further amplified. Today, the stock rose slightly by 1% in pre-market trading, suggesting some downside support.

TradingKey - The countdown has begun for the U.S. copper tariff decision. The U.S. Department of Commerce must submit its "Section 232" investigation report to the White House by June 30 to ultimately decide whether to impose import tariffs on refined copper.

Strategy's share price has fallen for eight consecutive trading days, registering a cumulative decline of 36%, and may continue to slide toward $65 in the short term.

TradingKey - As of today (June 26) during the Asian session, gold (XAUUSD) prices fluctuated around $4,010. Yesterday, gold rebounded briefly following the release of the PCE data, with market sentiment improving significantly compared to before the release. However, from an overall structural perspective, gold has not yet fully shaken off its weak setup. Although the PCE data did not deteriorate further beyond expectations, triggering short-term short-covering, US inflation remains significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Expectations of future Fed rate hikes persist, limiting the upside potential for gold's rebound.

Japanese and South Korean stock markets suffered a "Black Friday" as the KOSPI Index and the Nikkei 225 plummeted, erasing yesterday's gains. SoftBank, Kioxia, Samsung Electronics, and SK Hynix plunged in unison.

TradingKey - On June 25, Eastern Time, just days after completing the largest-ever IPO, SpaceX (SPCX) once again delivered major news to the market. According to the Financial Times, citing four people familiar with the matter, SpaceX President and Chief Operating Officer Gwynne Shotwell stated during the IPO roadshow that the company is considering launching Starlink retail mobile services for U.S. consumers and may build its own terrestrial mobile network covering the United States.

TradingKey - On Thursday, June 25 (Eastern Time), Apple (AAPL) shares closed down 6.12% at $275.15, after hitting an intraday low of $273.75. Looking at the session, Apple not only underperformed the Nasdaq today but also became one of the key heavyweights dragging down the performance of mega-cap tech stocks. The direct catalyst for the market sell-off was Apple's recent announcement of price hikes across multiple hardware products, triggering a reassessment by investors of its future demand, profit margins, and brand pricing power.

Despite plans to attend a national conference next week, stock prices for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix failed to rise and instead plummeted by over 9%.

TradingKey - According to media reports, OpenAI is considering postponing its planned initial public offering to next year to secure a higher valuation and await more favorable market conditions. Sources say that OpenAI's advisors have presented two options to the company's management: either list as soon as possible while accepting a lower valuation, or wait until 2027 to proceed with the IPO to target a valuation of up to $1 trillion.

The US May PCE data reinforced rate hike expectations, and Bitcoin prices broke yesterday's low, approaching $58,000.