Alan Long

TradingKey - On Monday ET, the three major U.S. stock index futures rose collectively in pre-market trading as market risk appetite significantly recovered. News of a temporary peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has become the core variable for global markets today. Driven by easing geopolitical risks, international oil prices fell sharply, alleviating inflation concerns, while tech stocks, AI chip stocks, and airline stocks broadly strengthened. As of press time, Dow futures rose 0.91%, S&P 500 futures gained 1.31%, and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 2.18%.

TradingKey - As of today’s European session (June 15), the crude oil market plummeted intraday, driven by reports that a peace agreement in US-Iran negotiations is nearing signature. WTI (USOIL) crude briefly fell below the $80 mark, dropping over 5%, while Brent crude's decline once exceeded 4%.

TradingKey - As of the Asian session today (June 15), gold prices (XAUUSD) gapped higher and rose over 2% intraday, driven by significant progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations. Gold has rebounded for three consecutive trading days, with the cumulative rally exceeding $300. However, it should be noted that gold faces resistance at $4,360, which may limit short-term upside potential.

TradingKey - The Federal Reserve will convene the FOMC meeting on June 16-17 Eastern Time, announcing its interest rate decision and latest economic projections on June 17. The current target range for the federal funds rate stands at 3.50% to 3.75%. Based on the latest U.S. CPI and non-farm payroll data, the most likely outcome of the June meeting is to keep interest rates unchanged while signaling a more hawkish policy stance.

TradingKey - Over the past year, AI chips, cloud computing, data centers, and a handful of tech giants have propelled the Nasdaq and S&P 500 to continuous gains and repeated record highs. However, as an increasing amount of capital concentrates on the same AI narrative, the U.S. stock market has begun to exhibit typical bubble-like characteristics: high valuations, crowded trades, rising market concentration, and rapid capital expenditure expansion, while actual commercial returns still require time to be validated. Once the market begins to question the return on AI investment, index-level corrections could be more severe than typical sector rotations.

TradingKey - On Friday ET, rising expectations of a U.S.-Iran peace agreement drove a sharp decline in oil prices, easing market concerns over energy inflation. Meanwhile, SpaceX’s (SPCX) largest-ever IPO debuted today, becoming the focus of pre-market trading. The three major U.S. stock index futures rose in pre-market sessions; as of press time, Dow futures were up approximately 0.8%, S&P 500 futures rose about 0.68%, and Nasdaq 100 futures gained roughly 0.64%.

TradingKey - SpaceX will officially list on the Nasdaq at 9:30 AM ET on June 12. Notably, ahead of the listing, several ETF issuers have already moved to launch or file for 2x leveraged long and short products linked to its share price. This implies that investors will be able to bet directly on short-term fluctuations in SpaceX's stock price through leveraged ETFs.

TradingKey - As of the Asian session on June 12, gold (XAUUSD) prices fluctuated and weakened near $4,180. Yesterday, gold prices briefly dipped to near $4,000 before rebounding sharply above $4,200, driven by the impending signing of a US-Iran agreement. However, with the decline for June still reaching approximately 8%, the market continues to exhibit a bearish bias.

TradingKey - Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday showed that the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 1.1% month-over-month in May, matching the April gain and exceeding market expectations of 0.7%. The unadjusted final demand PPI rose 6.5% year-over-year, the largest 12-month increase since November 2022, signaling that wholesale inflationary pressures in the U.S. continue to intensify.

TradingKey - On Thursday, Eastern Time, the three major U.S. stock index futures rebounded in pre-market trading. Technology stocks saw a recovery after two consecutive days of declines as markets temporarily digested tensions between the U.S. and Iran along with the impact of the previous day’s hot CPI data. As of press time, Dow futures rose approximately 0.83%, S&P 500 futures gained about 0.76%, and Nasdaq futures climbed around 1.22%.

TradingKey - On June 11, Eastern Time, driven by strong CPI data and the situation in the Middle East, gold prices (XAUUSD) dipped toward the $4,000 mark intraday, hitting a low of $4,023.76. As of today's Asian session, gold prices are fluctuating near $4,100, up 0.79% on the day.

TradingKey - On Wednesday Eastern Time, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released data showing that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.5% month-over-month in May, compared to the previous value of 0.6%. The CPI rose 4.2% year-over-year, up from 3.8% in April, indicating that inflationary pressures continue to build. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2% month-over-month, lower than April’s 0.4%. Core CPI rose 2.9% year-over-year, edging up slightly from the previous 2.8%.

TradingKey - On Wednesday ET, the three major U.S. stock index futures broadly declined in pre-market trading as the tech sell-off continued. Escalating tensions in the Middle East, coupled with the imminent release of May CPI data, have significantly cooled market risk appetite. As of press time, Dow futures are down 0.92%, S&P 500 futures have dropped 1.06%, and Nasdaq 100 futures have declined 1.62%.

TradingKey - As of the European session today (June 10), silver continued its weak downward trend, hitting an intraday low of $63.44. Technical indicators suggest that silver prices may see further downside in the short term. Driven by strong U.S. non-farm payroll data and the conflict between Iran

TradingKey - Recently, following a strong rally driven by AI, semiconductors, and mega-cap tech stocks, market divergence in U.S. equities has significantly intensified. Bank of America (BAC) recently warned that approximately 70% of the bear market warning signals it tracks have been triggered, a level comparable to the average preceding seven S&P 500 market tops since 1990. The BofA strategy team, led by Savita Subramanian, believes there are currently too many danger signals in U.S. stocks and advises investors to consider moderate profit-taking rather than continuing to indiscriminately chase highs.

TradingKey - On Tuesday Eastern Time, the three major U.S. stock index futures rose in pre-market trading as AI chip stocks extended their recovery rally. A temporary cooling of tensions in the Middle East led to a pullback in oil prices, boosting market risk appetite. As of press time, Dow futures

TradingKey - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release May CPI data at 8:30 AM ET on June 10. This report is the most critical inflation reading ahead of the Federal Reserve's June 16-17 policy meeting and serves as key data for the market to gauge whether the Fed needs to maintain its hawkish stance following strong non-farm payrolls.

TradingKey - Today (June 8), oil prices initially surged following renewed hostilities between Iran and Israel, before paring back some gains as Iran announced the cessation of military operations and market risk sentiment cooled slightly. This indicates that recent crude oil market volatility remains dominated by the situation in the Middle East.

TradingKey - On Monday Eastern Time, all three major U.S. stock index futures rose in pre-market trading as technology stocks recovered from last week's sell-off, with a rebound in chip stocks leading gains in Nasdaq futures. However, escalating tensions in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher, and market concerns regarding inflationary pressures and the Federal Reserve's policy path persist. As of press time, Dow futures rose 0.36%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.83%, and Nasdaq futures rose 1.49%.

TradingKey - During the European session on June 8, Gold (XAUUSD) extended its downward trend, breaking below $4,300 intraday to reach a low of $4,268.53. Technical analysis indicates that further downside potential has opened up, with the price potentially falling toward $4,100.