Bitcoin's 30-day correlation with gold flips negative at -0.53

Bitcoin has finally cut the cord. The short-term correlation between Bitcoin and gold has now gone negative, sitting at -0.53 over 30 days, according to Glassnode. It’s a clean break.

On the longer timeframe, the 365-day correlation still shows a weak positive link at 0.65, but that short-term shift is loud. It means the two assets are no longer moving in sync.

While gold sits frozen just under record highs, Bitcoin is consolidating and dragging in buyers under $111,100. That level is being eaten up by demand. If Bitcoin pushes above $114,100, the market could be staring down the next resistance band at $118,000.

Gold, on the other hand, isn’t moving much. It’s just chilling around $3,623 an ounce, barely reacting. It popped above $3,674 on Tuesday, but that didn’t hold. This happened after a revision in payroll data came out, showing a massive drop of 911,000 jobs, a record.

Now everyone’s waiting on the next inflation numbers. The Federal Reserve is set to decide policy next week, and those prints dropping on Wednesday and Thursday will shape what they do. Traders are already betting on rate cuts. No one’s certain, but the cracks are there.

Trump pushes tariffs, Israel strikes, and gold holds steady

Gold isn’t just dancing around because of rate talk. The geopolitical mess is heavy too. On Tuesday, Israel launched a military strike in Doha, targeting senior Hamas leaders. That hasn’t happened before.

At the same time, Donald Trump, speaking to European leaders, said he’s ready to slap new tariffs on China and India, but only if the EU does it too. His goal? To pressure Putin into negotiations over Ukraine.

These layers of risk are part of why bullion is up almost 40% this year. Between central banks buying and ETF flows, gold has had a lifeline. Goldman Sachs and others still expect more gains if the Fed cuts rates.

Meanwhile, institutional adoption is moving fast. The leader of the pack is Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, which flipped their entire model back in 2020. Michael Saylor called cash dead and swapped the company’s reserves into Bitcoin.

They now hold 607,770 BTC, bought at an average of $71,700. With Bitcoin trading around $119,500, their holdings now sit above $72 billion. And their stock? It’s up 3,700% in five years, even outperforming Bitcoin itself.

Strategy’s solo run didn’t last. In May last year, Metaplanet jumped in. The Japanese company copied the playbook and now holds 17,132 BTC, worth just under $2 billion. Then there’s Capital B, previously called The Blockchain Group in France.

They raised money through Bitcoin-denominated debt, used that to buy more BTC, and built their balance sheet around digital assets, with no fiat in sight. These guys are going all in.

Some others took the simple route. TwentyOne and Nakamoto raised money, turned it straight into crypto, and now just sit on it. They don’t have a traditional business model. Their stock price is tied directly to the value of their crypto.

But to be clear, that comes with some serious risk. If markets crash, they have nothing else to rely on. It’s all or nothing.

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