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Earnings
Euro: Range seen around mid‑1.15s against US Dollar – Scotiabank
Scotiabank’s FX team notes EUR/USD is drifting toward 1.15 after a Fed‑driven rally, with euro area CPI broadly in line with expectations and French data briefly lifting the Euro. Rate expectations are stabilizing, with about 42 bps of tightening priced by December.
EUR/USD
Fxstreet
Fri, Jul 31
Canada: Growth outpaces forecasts – RBC
Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) economists Abbey Xu and Nathan Janzen note that Canadian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose 0.3% in May, with an advance estimate of 0.2% for June, indicating a solid second-quarter rebound after winter stagnation.
Fxstreet
Fri, Jul 31
United States: Broad-based Q2 GDP strength beyond AI – TD Securities
TD Securities economists Eli Nir and Oscar Munoz highlight that Q2 United States (US) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth slowed to 1.5% q/q AR, but underlying private domestic final purchases accelerated to 3.9%.
Fxstreet
Fri, Jul 31
Aluminium: Tightness points to higher prices – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Norman Liebke highlights that China’s July trade data will be key for base metals, especially Aluminium. Chinese Aluminium output in H1 exceeded the official cap, suggesting production may ease later this year.
Copper
Fxstreet
Fri, Jul 31
United States Chicago PMI registered at 57.6 above expectations (56) in July
Fxstreet
Fri, Jul 31
India: RBI hold expectations shape policy outlook – ING
ING economists Deepali Bhargava and Lynn Song expect the Reserve Bank of India to keep the repo rate at 5.25% this week. They note that while June headline inflation rose on higher fuel prices, core inflation remains below target.
Fxstreet
Fri, Jul 31
China: Policy support balances weak PMIs – UOB
UOB economist Ho Woei Chen highlights that China’s July CFLP PMIs slipped into contraction, with both manufacturing and non-manufacturing gauges signaling broad-based weakness in activity. The report notes particularly soft industrial output and services, while construction also declined.
Fxstreet
Fri, Jul 31
Japanese Yen: BoJ patience keeps wide trading range – TD Securities
TD Securities notes the Bank of Japan (BoJ) left its policy rate at 1% with an 8–1 vote, as Governor Ueda delivered notably hawkish remarks. Despite this, the Japanese Yen (JPY) reaction was muted, and the TD forecasts the next 25 bps hike only in December.
USD/JPY
Fxstreet
Fri, Jul 31
Breaking: Canada's GDP expanded by 0.3% MoM in May
Canada’s economy cooled a tad in May. Indeed, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 0.3%, adding to the previous month's 0.6% expansion (revised from 0.5%), according to data released by Statistics Canada.
Fxstreet
Fri, Jul 31
British Pound: Softer BoE stance seen weighing on Sterling – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad highlights that the Bank of England (BoE) left rates at 3.75% with a 6–3 vote, while Governor Andrew Bailey pushed back against expectations of an imminent hike.
GBP/USD
Fxstreet
Fri, Jul 31
Euro: ECB September hike still base case – TD Securities
TD Securities strategists highlight that Euro area Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation rose to 2.9% y/y in July, with core inflation at 2.5% and services inflation at 3.3%, indicating only limited evidence of meaningful second-round effects.
EUR/USD
Fxstreet
Fri, Jul 31
Brent: Conflict risks keep prices elevated – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Norman Liebke and colleagues highlight that Brent remains volatile as Middle East tensions and shipping disruptions through key chokepoints constrain supply.
Brent
Fxstreet
Fri, Jul 31
Canadian Dollar: Balanced growth supports CAD – TD Securities
TD Securities strategists expect Canadian real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to rise by 0.2% m/m in May, exceeding the flash estimate and extending April’s 0.5% gain. They highlight balanced growth across goods and services, with manufacturing, existing home sales and retail trade all contributing.
USD/CAD
Fxstreet
Fri, Jul 31
China: Growth drift and export reliance – Rabobank
Rabobank strategists highlight renewed weakness in China, with official PMI data showing both manufacturing and non-manufacturing back in contraction and domestic demand still soft. Policymakers are prioritizing faster implementation of existing measures over new stimulus.
Fxstreet
Fri, Jul 31
ECB’s Kocher: Central bank policies will remain data-dependent
European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Martin Kocher said in European trade on Friday that recent weeks have demonstrated how quickly geopolitical developments can alter energy prices and, consequently, the inflation outlook.
Fxstreet
Fri, Jul 31
British Pound: Limited support from BoE policy – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister notes that the Bank of England kept rates unchanged and avoided signalling future hikes, despite a closer-than-expected 6–3 vote and Governor Bailey’s insistence that the BoE is not edging toward tightening.
GBP/USD
Fxstreet
Fri, Jul 31
Federal Reserve: Prolonged pause with hike risks – UOB
UOB strategists observe that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept the Fed Funds Target Rate at 3.50%–3.75% for a fifth meeting, with a 9–3 split as three presidents sought a 25 bps hike.
Fxstreet
Fri, Jul 31
European Central Bank: September hike path shaped by Iran war – Nomura
Nomura strategists highlight that Euro area Gross Domestic Product (GDP) excluding Ireland has been growing around potential despite the Iran war.
Fxstreet
Fri, Jul 31
Euro: Supported by growth surprise – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur notes that EUR/USD has broken back above 1.15 for the first time since mid-June as Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) outpaced United States (US) growth in annualised terms.
EUR/USD
Fxstreet
Fri, Jul 31
Bank of England: Dovish hold shapes Pound outlook – UOB
UOB strategists highlight that the Bank of England (BoE) kept its policy rate at 3.75%, with Governor Bailey stressing no move toward a hike despite US-Iran conflict risks.
Fxstreet
Fri, Jul 31
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