The Week Ahead: US Midterm Elections and October Nonfarm Payrolls Arrive as Earnings From Apple, Palantir, AMD Take Center Stage

U.S. Midterm Elections: Control of House and Senate Takes Center Stage

The U.S. will hold its 2026 midterm elections on Tuesday (Nov. 3). The elections will decide all 435 voting seats in the House of Representatives and about one-third of the seats in the Senate.

Markets will focus on which party wins control of the House and the Senate, and whether government will be divided. The election results will impact the trajectory of tax and fiscal spending policies over the next two years and could alter the regulatory landscape for energy, healthcare, and technology.

If races in key districts are tight or certain elections require runoffs, the final seat distribution in both chambers may not be determined on election night. Markets will subsequently assess the impact of the election results on fiscal policy, industry regulation, and government decision-making efficiency.

U.S. October Nonfarm Payrolls: Job Data to Shape December Rate Expectations

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the October employment report on Friday (Nov. 6) at 8:30 a.m. Markets will focus closely on changes in nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate, the labor force participation rate, and average hourly earnings growth.

The Federal Reserve noted in its October meeting statement that job growth has largely kept pace with labor force size and the unemployment rate has changed little. The October employment report will further reflect whether labor demand remains stable and whether wage growth continues to slow.

If nonfarm payrolls and average hourly earnings beat expectations while the unemployment rate remains stable, market expectations of higher interest rates for longer could heat up; if job growth slows and the unemployment rate rises, expectations for rate cuts may strengthen.

Apple Earnings: iPhone Sales and Services Growth in Focus

Apple will report its fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 financial results on Monday (Nov. 2) after the market close and hold an earnings conference call at 5:00 p.m. ET.

The company previously projected fourth-quarter revenue to grow 9% to 11% year-over-year, iPhone revenue to grow in the mid-teens percentage range year-over-year, Services growth to be roughly flat with the previous quarter, and gross margin to be 47% to 48%.

Markets will focus closely on sales of the iPhone 18 Pro series, Services revenue, and changes in gross margin, while also monitoring the impact of rising memory costs and product supply constraints, as well as the company's guidance for the first quarter of fiscal 2027.

AMD, Qualcomm, and Arm Earnings: AI Chip and Smartphone Demand Put to the Test

AMD will report its fiscal third-quarter 2026 financial results on Tuesday (Nov. 3) after the market close and hold an earnings conference call at 5:00 p.m. Markets will focus on data center revenue, demand and shipments for Instinct AI accelerators, as well as the performance of client processors and gaming segments.

Qualcomm will report its fiscal fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 financial results on Wednesday (Nov. 4) after the market close. Investors will watch QCT handset, automotive, and IoT businesses, as well as QTL licensing revenue, while tracking the company's progress in AI smartphones, AI PCs, and edge computing.

Arm will report its fiscal second-quarter 2027 financial results after the market close on the same day and hold an earnings conference call at 5:00 p.m. Markets will focus on licensing revenue, royalties, and the adoption of the Arm architecture across data centers, smartphones, and AI edge devices.

Monday (November 2)

Key Events: October ISM Manufacturing Index, Apple Earnings, Palantir Earnings

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release the October Manufacturing PMI at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time. Sub-indexes for new orders, production, employment, and prices will reflect changes in U.S. manufacturing demand, production activity, and cost pressures.

On the earnings front, Apple and Palantir will release their fourth-quarter and third-quarter FY2026 financial results after the U.S. market close. Palantir investors should focus on U.S. commercial and government revenue growth, total contract value, remaining performance obligations (RPO), customer adoption of its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP), and full-year guidance.

Tuesday (November 3)

Key Events: U.S. Midterm Elections, AMD Earnings, Amgen Earnings, Shopify Earnings

The U.S. will hold its 2026 midterm elections. Control of the Senate and the House of Representatives, as well as its impact on fiscal and regulatory policies, will be the primary market variables of the day.

On the economic data front, the U.S. will release the September Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and September factory orders at 10:00 a.m. Data on job openings, hires, and quits will reflect labor demand and employee turnover.

On the earnings front, Shopify (SHOP) and Pfizer will report results before the bell. Market focus will be on e-commerce transaction volume and payment business for Shopify, and Pfizer's drug sales, cost controls, and full-year guidance.

After the bell, earnings will come from AMD, Arista Networks (ANET), Booking Holdings (BKNG), and Amgen (AMGN). In addition to AI chip and data center networking demand, performance in online travel bookings and biopharmaceuticals is also worth watching.

Wednesday (November 4)

Key Events: October ISM Services Index, Qualcomm Earnings, Arm Earnings, McDonald's Earnings

The U.S. will release September international trade balance data at 8:30 a.m., followed by the October ISM Services PMI at 10:00 a.m. Sub-indexes for business activity, new orders, employment, and prices will reflect U.S. services operating conditions, demand changes, and cost pressures.

Companies reporting before the bell include Uber (UBER), McDonald's (MCD), CVS Health (CVS), Novo Nordisk, and Datadog (DDOG). After the market close, AppLovin (APP), Qualcomm, and Arm will report earnings.

Thursday (November 5)

Key Events: U.S. Q3 Labor Productivity, Cloudflare Earnings, Lumentum Earnings, Airbnb Earnings

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release preliminary third-quarter nonfarm business sector labor productivity and unit labor costs at 8:30 a.m. These figures help evaluate corporate efficiency and wage cost trends; a sustained rise in unit labor costs could increase inflationary pressure.

On the earnings front, ConocoPhillips (COP) will report third-quarter results before the bell, with market attention focused on oil and gas production, costs, and capital expenditures.

Cloudflare (NET), Airbnb (ABNB), and Lumentum (LITE) will report after the close. Cloudflare investors will focus on large customer growth, commercialization progress of the Workers developer platform, and demand for AI-related products.

Previously, Bloomberg reported that Marvell Technology (MRVL) was in talks to acquire Lumentum, with a deal potentially announced in early November. Investors will focus on Lumentum's AI optical communications business performance and the progress of acquisition talks.

Friday (November 6)

Key Events: U.S. October Nonfarm Payrolls Report, Moderna Earnings, Humana Earnings

The U.S. will release the October nonfarm payrolls report at 8:30 a.m. Nonfarm employment, the unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings will reflect labor market conditions and influence market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate policy in December and beyond.

On the earnings front, Moderna (MRNA) and Humana (HUM) will report third-quarter 2026 financial results. Investors should focus on Moderna's vaccine sales, R&D progress, and cash burn, as well as Humana's medical loss ratio, Medicare Advantage business performance, and full-year guidance.

This content was translated using AI and reviewed for clarity. It is for informational purposes only.