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US President Trump says Putin agrees to supply millions of tons of diesel
On Friday, US President Donald Trump revealed that he spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who agreed that Russia will supply over 300K tons of diesel fuel to the US and the global market, adding 500K tons for November and 1 million tons “immediately thereafter.”
Fxstreet
Fri, Oct 9
Singapore Dollar: MAS tightening but gains constrained – OCBC
OCBC’s Christopher Wong notes that Singapore Dollar (SGD) has held relatively steady despite a firmer US Dollar (USD) and higher Oil prices, with MAS tightening expectations underpinning the S$NEER. USD/SGD trades near recent highs with intact bullish momentum.
Fxstreet
Fri, Oct 9
Chinese Yuan: PBoC stance and valuation debate guide currency path – MUFG
Halpenny highlights a new PBoC document defending China’s FX policy and rejecting claims that CNY drives its trade surplus, instead pointing to manufacturing competitiveness. He notes BIS REER data showing a 20% fall from the 2022 peak and IMF estimates of 12–20% undervaluation, suggesting CNY is undervalued but only partly explains China’s export strength.
Fxstreet
Fri, Oct 9
Singapore: Policy slope tightening view – DBS
DBS Group Research expects the Monetary Authority of Singapore to slightly increase the SGD NEER policy band slope at the October review, while keeping the width and centre unchanged. The team, led by Taimur Baig, anticipates calibrated tightening driven by import cost pressures and resilient growth, alongside strong Q3 2026 GDP supported by AI-led trade and financial sector strength.Fxstreet
Fri, Oct 9
France: Budget politics and market testing – Rabobank
Rabobank's Senior Economist Maartje Wijffelaars assesses French budget negotiations starting next week in Parliament, noting protests and reluctance for austerity. She highlights Le Pen’s preference for a bad budget over none and possible use of Article 49.3.Fxstreet
Fri, Oct 9
Poland: Inflation outlook stabilises – ING
ING economists Adam Antoniak and David Havrlant expect Poland’s final September CPI, due Wednesday, to confirm headline inflation at 4% year-on-year, with core inflation easing and price growth concentrated in fuels and related services. They note improved short-term inflation prospects thanks to renewed cuts in fuel excise duty and VAT, and project headline CPI in a 3.5–4.0% range by year-end.Fxstreet
Fri, Oct 9
Canada: Gradual improvement expected – RBC
Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) economist Claire Fan notes Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September, mainly in public sectors, reversing much of summer gains and leaving year-to-date employment at -41,000. She highlights volatility in monthly data and stresses the unemployment rate remains below last year. Fan expects earlier labour market progress to hold and the unemployment rate to edge lower through 2026.
Fxstreet
Fri, Oct 9
Indian Rupee: RBI seen keeping hike option open – DBS
DBS Group Research anticipates India’s September inflation to rise to 5.7% year-on-year from 4.8%, driven by broad-based food price gains and higher non-food fuel costs. Core inflation is expected to tick up as uneven monsoon conditions and elevated Oil prices add pressure, leading DBS to expect the RBI to keep the door open for a possible rate hike in December 2026.Fxstreet
Fri, Oct 9
European Central Bank: Conditional support and French risks – Rabobank
Rabobank's Senior Economist Maartje Wijffelaars describes widening French spreads and notes 38% of French high-grade corporate debt now yields less than government bonds. She argues most spread widening may be over as France is seen as too big to fail and ECB tools exist. She outlines ECB conditionality for TPI and stresses France’s need for a credible budget.Fxstreet
Fri, Oct 9
Norwegian Krone: Rate hike risks support currency – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman notes that the Norwegian Krone (NOK) is softer against most peers following a modest pullback in Oil prices, but September CPI data keep further Norges Bank rate hikes in play, offering support to NOK. Sticky underlying inflation above the central bank’s forecasts means the option to raise rates further remains open, with markets pricing roughly 50% odds of another hike by year-end.
Fxstreet
Fri, Oct 9
Swiss Franc: Range trade bias holds against US Dollar – UOB
United Overseas Bank (UOB) analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that USD/CHF shows slightly increased downside momentum, with scope to test 0.8290 but limited odds of a sustained break lower. For the coming days, they maintain that USD/CHF has likely entered a range-trading phase between 0.8245 and 0.8365, while over the 1–3 month horizon they see the pair continuing to rebound but lacking strength to revisit the July peak.
Fxstreet
Fri, Oct 9
Euro: China trade tensions and CNY strength pose downside risks - MUFG
MUFG's Derek Halpenny highlights Europe's economic resilience following Germany's upward Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth revisions but warns that potential European Union (EU) import restrictions and additional tariffs on Chinese goods could escalate trade tensions and weigh on the Euro (EUR).
Fxstreet
Fri, Oct 9
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