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Forex Today: Markets cling to cautious stance as Strait of Hormuz tensions heat up
Here is what you need to know on Monday, May 4:
Fxstreet
Mon, May 4
EUR/USD: Focus shifts to Dollar weakness – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen notes that EUR/USD has nearly returned to pre-war levels as the Euro (EUR) proves resilient and the US Dollar (USD) retreats. Markets expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to hike in June, but Nguyen doubts pricing for three hikes by year-end.
EUR/USD
Fxstreet
Mon, May 4
Turkey Consumer Price Index (YoY) registered at 32.37% above expectations (31.25%) in April
Turkey Consumer Price Index (YoY) registered at 32.37% above expectations (31.25%) in April
USD/TRY
Fxstreet
Mon, May 4
Turkey Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at 4.18% above expectations (3.28%) in April
Turkey Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at 4.18% above expectations (3.28%) in April
USD/TRY
Fxstreet
Mon, May 4
Brent: Large monthly drop after Hormuz scare – UOB
UOB strategists note that Brent crude has just recorded its largest monthly percentage decline since December 2025, despite briefly spiking above USD 126/bbl on renewed Strait of Hormuz concerns.
Brent
Fxstreet
Mon, May 4
Sweden Manufacturing PMI rose from previous 56.3 to 57.2 in April
Sweden Manufacturing PMI rose from previous 56.3 to 57.2 in April
Fxstreet
Mon, May 4
Equities: Strong earnings offset Middle East risks – Danske Bank
Danske Research Team reports that equities ended last week higher, led by tech and growth, even as Iran-related risks and higher Oil prices weighed on sentiment. They note a return of negative correlation between equities and bonds, with yields rising alongside stocks.
Fxstreet
Mon, May 4
Iranian military warns the US Navy not to approach or enter the Strait of Hormuz
The Unified Command of the Iranian armed forces warned on Monday the US Navy not to approach or enter the Strait of Hormuz. It further stated that it will 'respond harshly’ to any threat at any level and in any part of Iran.
Brent
Fxstreet
Mon, May 4
Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 48.1 (April) vs previous 48.3
Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 48.1 (April) vs previous 48.3
Fxstreet
Mon, May 4
India HSBC Manufacturing PMI came in at 54.7, below expectations (55.9) in April
India HSBC Manufacturing PMI came in at 54.7, below expectations (55.9) in April
Fxstreet
Mon, May 4
Netherlands, The Nevi Manufacturing PMI climbed from previous 52 to 54.4 in April
Netherlands, The Nevi Manufacturing PMI climbed from previous 52 to 54.4 in April
Fxstreet
Mon, May 4
Indonesia Trade Balance increased to $3.32B in March from previous $1.28B
Indonesia Trade Balance increased to $3.32B in March from previous $1.28B
Fxstreet
Mon, May 4
Indonesia Imports fell from previous 10.85% to 1.51% in March
Indonesia Imports fell from previous 10.85% to 1.51% in March
Fxstreet
Mon, May 4
Indonesia Exports declined to -3.1% in March from previous 1.01%
Indonesia Exports declined to -3.1% in March from previous 1.01%
Fxstreet
Mon, May 4
Indonesia Core Inflation (YoY) declined to 2.44% in April from previous 2.52%
Indonesia Core Inflation (YoY) declined to 2.44% in April from previous 2.52%
Fxstreet
Mon, May 4
Indonesia Inflation (MoM) fell from previous 0.41% to 0.13% in April
Indonesia Inflation (MoM) fell from previous 0.41% to 0.13% in April
Fxstreet
Mon, May 4
RBNZ’s Gai: Nothing suggests an automatic tightening bias
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) board member Prasanna Gai said on Monday that pre-emptive tightening requires strong synchronization and an active coordination mechanism.
NZD/USD
Fxstreet
Mon, May 4
Australia ANZ Job Advertisements climbed from previous -3.1% to -0.8% in April
Australia ANZ Job Advertisements climbed from previous -3.1% to -0.8% in April
AUD/USD
Fxstreet
Mon, May 4
Australia Building Permits (YoY): 9% (March) vs previous 14%
Australia Building Permits (YoY): 9% (March) vs previous 14%
Fxstreet
Mon, May 4
Australia Building Permits (MoM) came in at -10.5%, below expectations (-9.9%) in March
Australia Building Permits (MoM) came in at -10.5%, below expectations (-9.9%) in March
Fxstreet
Mon, May 4
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